Basketball betting: The SportingBet interview

If you are a long-time reader of BallinEurope, you have read the outstanding interviews we posted with people involved with bets on basketball games. This time we talked to Philip Carpenter, an odds compiler at SportingBet.com, the official partner of the Euroleague. When Philip sent in the interview, I was amazed by his answers - Make sure you read this article, in which he discusses bets in the USA as well as who will win the Euroleague and the Olympics.

What exactly does an odds compiler like you are have to do? Is it a 24/7 job?
As an odds compiler, the main aim is to assess the likelihood of each outcome of a specific event. As a basketball trading team, we are responsible for analysing and producing prices on season outrights and individual matches, including handicaps and total points lines, for about a dozen leagues across Europe, ranging from the Spanish ACB to the Adriatic NLB. We will also cover all major tournaments, like the Olympics this summer, and European tournaments such as the Euroleague, of which SportingBet is the sponsor.

To work in this climate, you have to understand that news filters through at all times of day, due to time differences across Europe and the Americas. This means you have to be flexible in your approach and to ensure that there is always somebody available to react to any major news that can drastically affect a price. For example, the recent move by Josh Childress from Atlanta in the NBA to Olympiakos in the Greek A1.

What is your strategy for making odds? For example, how much and what kind of research do you do?
I work in a team that consists of four or five traders of which we individually cover two or three leagues. As teams in Europe generally play once a week, it is relatively simple to follow teams’ progress and track them across the season. Domestic league homepages are a great source of information and help provide all manner of statistics from which to work from. As we cover several games live each weekend,we are able to see firsthand how teams perform, which obviously helps us in the pricing process not only for the next match, but for the season outright books we offer.

The internet is obviously a massive tool that can be utilised, and enables us to access forums and discussion websites to get more information that statistics cannot supply. When approaching a match, you want to look at many factors, with important ones being current from over the last five or six matches, the venue, home advantage in, say, a Turkish or Greek arena, is very important. Injuries have to be looked at for obvious reasons, however, fortunately in the European game, they play once a week, so injuries can be better assessed, whereas in America, where they play three or four times a week, injuries play a more important role.

Do you think it’s possible to make a living with basketball bets?
I am privileged to work with a lot of devices that makes it possible to access a lot of information for which I am able to assess whether a price is correct or out of line. These tools, such as websites that contain statistics, come at a price and charge for their services. This will eat into any profits made and are essential for successful betting, and you must understand that losing streaks are unavoidable. It is possible with the right staking plan and the dedication it takes to return a profit. Many people do not understand that it is a very time-consuming occupation as a professional gambler as there is always information to be gained. It is possible but you must have the right attitude and be patient. Obviously luck plays an important role, especially in basketball, as the game is very volatile, as one point generally can have a massive impact when betting on handicaps and totals.

What is more interesting, NBA bets or European basketball bets?
I find that the NBA is very interesting, as they play many times a week. There are a lot of mitigating factors caused by this, which helps to level the playing field a bit, as the number one team can lose to the 30th ranked team. This can be put down to a host of reasons, such as venue when a team goes on a road trip and doesn’t play a home game for 10 days or so, fatigue, minor injuries that players sometimes wouldn’t play through (as they would in Europe). So that gives a bit of an edge to the gambler, as you cannot guarantee that a team will try 100%. They play 82 games per season, so losing one game doesn’t have the impact that it would on a team that plays only 30 games in Turkey.

The major problem with betting on the NBA is that the country doesn’t really appreciate the concept of betting. It’s only legal in certain areas of the country. Las Vegas is predominantly recognised in America as the centre for betting. So they have their own oddsmakers. As they are exposed to more coverage and more statistics, they are viewed as very well-informed and so few bookmakers across Europe will ever release any lines until Las Vegas has put up lines in their casinos. Now if Las Vegas moves a handicap, the average bookmaker thinks they know something that he doesn’t and so will automatically follow them. Because of this nature there are very few opinions out there as everybody is following Las Vegas lines, and there is little deviation. There are very little differences in the prices being offered, so that can be somewhat limiting for the bettor.

Do you think that bets on women’s basketball are easier to make than on men’s games?
I think that anybody trying to adopt betting as a lifestyle has more of a chance to make a living out of betting on women’s matches. I say this primarily because there is less coverage on women’s matches, and less coverage means the availability on information is lower, which means that the bettor has a bigger chance of beating the bookmaker if they can use the information more effectively than the bookmaker. You will often see on a men’s match that there will be nearly 50 companies all offering a very similar match price, with handicaps within one point of one another. Whereas only several companies will offer a woman’s match and that can lead to greater differences in handicaps. To realise a profit, though, you must be dedicated and use the information, but the women’s game is just as volatile as the men’s.

Since you must know a lot about international Basketball, who will win the Olympic tournament this summer?
It is always hard to look past the USA whenever they come to a major tournament; those who have over the last few years have probably made good profits. This year, however, they are taking it very seriously. They finished the season earlier, so that they can practice a more European style of offensive and defensive play, which they have struggled with in recent years, and have also been coached with international refereeing, which is different to that of the NBA. They would be my recommendation, as they are taking a very strong team – even with Le Bron’s recent injury. But if you are looking at an outsider, then the Greeks looked very strong at the qualifying tournament (albeit they were at home) or Argentina, who are placed in the weaker group and, if all goes to plan, avoid the USA until the final.

And of course … who will win the Euroleague 2009 in Berlin…?
Tough question, but Olympiakos have made some good signings over the summer, and with the playoffs moving to five-game series instead of three-, Greece is a very difficult place to go. Also keep an eye on Efes Pilsen: They were going strong last year until players refused to go to Belgrade for a match (they were all subsequently cut), and they have been very active over the summer trying to rebuild for the Euroleague this year.

Thank you very much, Philip, for this great interview!

Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2008: Day 1

With about 24 hours until the Olympic Qualifying Tournament starts, let’s have a look at the teams and the chances for each team to make it to the big goal: the Olympics in Beijing. Read more

Mayors make America-sized bet

It’s true, it’s true: Everything is bigger in America.

Want an example? Check out the huge USA-sized wager taking place between the mayors of Los Angeles and Boston over the NBA Finals.

(Incidentally, this bet accidentally makes for the best argument for an eight-team America/Europe tournament: Just imagine the Cleveland and Moscow heads wagering the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame against 1,000,000 square miles of Siberia on the Cleveland Cavaliers-CSKA Moscow finals in 2015…)

The bet is as follows.

L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa:

“If the Celtics win, we’ll send you the best professional [American] football team L.A. has to offer: the Arena League’s Los Angeles Avengers.

“If the Lakers win, we get the [New England] Patriots.

“I know what you might be thinking: ‘Villaraigosa must be nuts! Bostonians would make out like bandits in that deal! With an indoor arena team, the fans would not have to risk frostbite to see a mid-September game. And with the smaller field, our coaches wouldn’t even need cameras to steal opponents’ signals.’

“I’m sure my constituents might not be happy with this deal, but I am so confident in the Lakers’ victory that I am willing to put it all on the line.”

“Oh, and to sweeten the pot, in the event of a Lakers victory you can keep the Patriots’ coach.

“We have a pretty good guy down the street who might be interested in the job — and who probably still has the gear.”

(Note to Europeans: Villaraigosa was not referring to famous Californian and the most well-known American football player abroad, O.J. Simpson.)

From Thomas Menino, mayor of Boston:

“Tonight is indeed an historic evening – the great competition begins once more between two of the NBA’s fiercest rivals. I remember well the last time we BEAT L.A. – there certainly have been a lot of changes in those 20-plus years. …

“But you’ve come up with an interesting bet. I know you don’t have much to offer so I appreciate your creativity. I would love to accept the arena (minus the team), but only because we could use the extra space for all of our banners – the rafters at the Garden are getting a little too crowded and we’re having trouble finding room for the 17th. …

“While I understand you won’t have the chance to come out and see a game in Boston, I hope you will have the opportunity to attend a game in Los Angeles. This series is bound to be a memorable one, so I suggest you consider breaking the L.A. custom of missing most of the first quarter and leaving early to beat the traffic.

“Your city is renowned for its great storytellers including yourself, Mr. Mayor, but I am sorry to say that this time there won’t be a fairytale ending. Best of luck, and Go Celtics!”

Now, anybody wanna bet on the Olympics? Germany…? Spain, maybe?

Basketball betting: The man behind the odds

Ever wondered who makes the odds and how? You probably thought it’s all done by computers, but no: Even in this business, the computer can’t take the place of a human being. This is is why we talked to Arvids, an odds compiler for Betway.com. Arvids gets paid for dealing with sports and bets all day long, so we had some interesting questions for him.

What exactly does an odds compiler like you are have to do? Is it a 24/7 job?
To put it in a fun way, I would have to say that I am being paid for reading about sports, analyzing sports and watching sports. But in truth it goes way more beyond that since it’s hardly all fun in general. One thing is to try and come up with odds which actually takes a lot of thought and a lot of time if you wanna do it in a proper way. But after the odds are done, then comes the hard part - managing risks. This is where you might look like a guy who is just staring at the screen and watching some betting tickets coming in. Yet, during that time you can of course research other stuff, but one thing is clear: I have to be on top of my game, otherwise it might end up badly. And more often than not it has been proven that if bookies do not pay attention to detail, they are going to pay for it.

When it comes to working hours, it’s hardly is a 24/7 job, but at least for me it is well over 40 hours per week as well. Kinda working 7 days a week and on many occasions it does take more than 12 hours a day, so sometimes my working week can go into 60 or 70 hours. I am earning my living with what I truly love, but there is one shortcoming: Where do I draw the line and say that work ends and hobby starts?

What is your strategy for making odds? For example, how much and what kind of research do you do?
Of course, I start with some generic stuff that I have to look at. Like, home or away, recent form, overall performance, head-to-head for teams (and not like 15 years ago when it hardly matters), injuries and suspensions. Those are the clear-cut factors that I believe people where familiar with. Since I am more of a basketball kinda guy (yet I compile odds on many other sports as well), then I will just elaborate a bit on that as well.

Personally, I believe that basketball is a game of matchups between players and at a high level every team tries to take advantage of those matchups, so I have to figure out how they might pan out. I look at all positions on the court, I try to put players against each other and figure out where each team has an advantage, and then try to figure out how much benefit it gives in term of points. Unlike the NBA, in European basketball coaches come a lot more into play on odds in my opinion as well. On thing I find really great about oddsmaking is when you have to deal with injuries in basketball. In general, the public (and also smart guys on many occasions) clearly overreacts or underestimates some injuries. There is hardly a player in Europe that is worth four or more points on the spread to his team but once the leader goes out, everyone tends to write that team off, like people generally did to CSKA when they went to Vitoria in group stages. But there are cases of underestimation: The best example was the Partizan-Efes Pilsen match where some Efes guys refused to go to Serbia. Partizan went from -2.5 point favorites to -9.5 in some places. What happened was that people underplayed the importance of it and were kinda betting against Partizan and not that much on Efes Pilsen, but what it came down to was that all of those combined were too important for Efes together. Because if eliminated every one of them singly, it would have made the line something like -7.5 on Partizan or so, but combined effect also has to be accounted for. This is where I challenge myself and try to thrive in it.

I am trying to learn more and more on the American way of compiling basketball odds, but you have to make some adjustments since there are hardly any situational spots for most teams in Europe. But to be fair, there is a lot to learn.

Do you think it’s possible to make a living with basketball bets?
With the current state of the market I personally doubt it, since limits are mostly nowhere near as good as people wish (only maybe at the game day, but by then the value has faded away). For starters, I do not think that one person could be any good on all basketball leagues in general; three to four is maximum that I think one person could cover at a high level when betting. So that already diminishes your options, but if you have a group of people who mesh well you could have a go at it, but once you show your skill, bookies see that, your limits are taken down and that complicates the process. But this is my thinking based on the experiences that I have here, since I might not have enough time for betting as such in general as work takes considerable time of my day here. If you solely concentrated on betting then you might have a shot at it, but the limit issue is what I would say is going to stop that. You could sustain it over a short term, but making a living is not six months; I’m speaking more about period of three to four years for starters.

What is more interesting, NBA bets or European basketball bets?
When it comes to betting, European basketball is more interesting to me, since there are still more gaps to fill and I love that kind of stuff. In the NBA, there are hardly any unknown things in general, but you have to think more about situational capping and stuff like that, which I personally still have not mastered since I have not had time to go into detail.

When it comes to watching the game, the NBA is clearly entertainment-based and I love it, since I cannot watch European basketball just for fun: I always analyze the game in my head, I always think about players and how they deal with situations on the court.

Do you think that bets on women’s basketball are easier to make than on men’s games?
When it comes to making odds, then there is hardly any difference in the process as such, but it is just harder to find some solid information about teams in general in women’s basketball. But when it comes to betting, finding value is a lot easier in women’s basketball since bookies rarely pay attention to women’s basketball as being instrumental element in their offerings. Limits of course are lower than for men’s basketball at a given bookie, but when it comes to women’s basketball, you will see bookies mostly copying odds from one another, so you will have wider range of bookies with the same value out there.

Since you must know a lot about international Basketball, who will win the Olympic tournament this summer?
No matter how people in Europe would not like to hear it, the US is gonna go all the way. Currently they are doing all the right things for it to happen. People worried how will all those big stars co-exist together on the court, but it seems that a guy like Carmelo will take on scoring for the most part. LeBron and Kobe will do the ball distribution as well, with loads of double teams and giving up the ball to the free guy. Zone defense should no longer be a problem for them, since they’ve seen enough of it over the regular season as it is now allowed in the NBA. Defensively they should be OK, and they will pay a lot more attention on defending the pick-and-roll more effectively (a huge problem for them in past tournaments). So if they continue doing all the right things, there is no team in the world that should be able to match the skill and athleticism of this team.

Thank you very much for your time, Arvids.

Basketball bet: The Betonbasket.com interview

Here is another new “off season” basketball series, that provides a lot of great information to our readers. Almost everybody that I speak to is “investing” money into bets - basketball bets! Read more

Euroleague Final Four: How to place your bets

I am sure you would like to know where to place your money for the Euroleague Final Four. Should you go with CSKA to be on the safe side or do you want to take the risk by going with Siena? By the way, is it a risk to go with Siena, who is playing probably the best team basketball this year?

I’ve done a lot of betting, since people told me they really can make a lot of money with basketball bets, so I tried it. Now, BallinEurope has a partnership with sportingbet, one of the largest sports betting companies, so I am placing all of my bets with sportingbet.

First match up: Tau Ceramica vs. CSKA

Overall I think going with a winner is pretty hard to do at a final four. You still can get odds of 3.85 for a Tau Ceramica win but only 1.30 on a CSKA win. If you really want to gamble, go with a tie (19.00) which is probably much more likely than during a normal season game. At least you can be sure this time that everybody will give 100%, particulary Tau, since they don’t want to lose in the semifinals again.

But what would be a “safe bet,” where you still can make some money? Probably betting on the total score. Once again, since it is the final four, you won’t expect a high-scoring game with both teams will trying to play intense defense, but then last year’s final ended 93-91, a total of 184 points.

Taking the over on the over/under of 146.5 total points is 1.85, as is taking the under. If the game ends 73-72 you would stay under 146.5. Is that a thinkable score for a game of CSKA and Tau?

Probably. CSKA is sixth in scoring with 78.7 points per game while Tau is 2nd with 82.3 points per game. This would add up to 161 points. Now you also have to know that CSKA only allowed 66 points per game to their opponents and I am sure that will not change in the Final Four. Tau allows 75 points per game, around the number that CSKA scored the whole season. Considering now that this is the Final Four and we’ll see hard defense, I would go with a score UNDER 146.5 for CSKA-Tau.

What about Siena and Maccabi?

If I had to choose a team right away, I would go with Siena right now. They just play unbelievable team basketball, while Maccabi almost had a struggle against a very bad FC Barcelona. The odds on sportingbet are 1.625 for a Siena win and 2.45 for a Maccabi win.

Once again I have to suggest that an over/under bet promising to me. The magic number for this game is 154.5 points, which a final score of 77-76 would get a payout of 1.85 for taking UNDER 154.5.

Is that possible?

Of course, Maccabi Tel Aviv leads the Euroleague with 83.5 points per game but Siena is even lower-scoring than CSKA with 78.3. While Maccabi allows almost 80 points per game, Siena’s tough defense won’t let Maccabi score more than 70 points. So saying Siena scores 80 points and keeps Maccabi to 70, we would have to bet another UNDER.

I would love to know your thoughts, and after that I will place my bets for everybody to see how much I bet and how much I won - should be a cool story - BallinEurope’s way to be a millionaire!