Basketball betting: The SportingBet interview

If you are a long-time reader of BallinEurope, you have read the outstanding interviews we posted with people involved with bets on basketball games. This time we talked to Philip Carpenter, an odds compiler at SportingBet.com, the official partner of the Euroleague. When Philip sent in the interview, I was amazed by his answers - Make sure you read this article, in which he discusses bets in the USA as well as who will win the Euroleague and the Olympics.

What exactly does an odds compiler like you are have to do? Is it a 24/7 job?
As an odds compiler, the main aim is to assess the likelihood of each outcome of a specific event. As a basketball trading team, we are responsible for analysing and producing prices on season outrights and individual matches, including handicaps and total points lines, for about a dozen leagues across Europe, ranging from the Spanish ACB to the Adriatic NLB. We will also cover all major tournaments, like the Olympics this summer, and European tournaments such as the Euroleague, of which SportingBet is the sponsor.

To work in this climate, you have to understand that news filters through at all times of day, due to time differences across Europe and the Americas. This means you have to be flexible in your approach and to ensure that there is always somebody available to react to any major news that can drastically affect a price. For example, the recent move by Josh Childress from Atlanta in the NBA to Olympiakos in the Greek A1.

What is your strategy for making odds? For example, how much and what kind of research do you do?
I work in a team that consists of four or five traders of which we individually cover two or three leagues. As teams in Europe generally play once a week, it is relatively simple to follow teams’ progress and track them across the season. Domestic league homepages are a great source of information and help provide all manner of statistics from which to work from. As we cover several games live each weekend,we are able to see firsthand how teams perform, which obviously helps us in the pricing process not only for the next match, but for the season outright books we offer.

The internet is obviously a massive tool that can be utilised, and enables us to access forums and discussion websites to get more information that statistics cannot supply. When approaching a match, you want to look at many factors, with important ones being current from over the last five or six matches, the venue, home advantage in, say, a Turkish or Greek arena, is very important. Injuries have to be looked at for obvious reasons, however, fortunately in the European game, they play once a week, so injuries can be better assessed, whereas in America, where they play three or four times a week, injuries play a more important role.

Do you think it’s possible to make a living with basketball bets?
I am privileged to work with a lot of devices that makes it possible to access a lot of information for which I am able to assess whether a price is correct or out of line. These tools, such as websites that contain statistics, come at a price and charge for their services. This will eat into any profits made and are essential for successful betting, and you must understand that losing streaks are unavoidable. It is possible with the right staking plan and the dedication it takes to return a profit. Many people do not understand that it is a very time-consuming occupation as a professional gambler as there is always information to be gained. It is possible but you must have the right attitude and be patient. Obviously luck plays an important role, especially in basketball, as the game is very volatile, as one point generally can have a massive impact when betting on handicaps and totals.

What is more interesting, NBA bets or European basketball bets?
I find that the NBA is very interesting, as they play many times a week. There are a lot of mitigating factors caused by this, which helps to level the playing field a bit, as the number one team can lose to the 30th ranked team. This can be put down to a host of reasons, such as venue when a team goes on a road trip and doesn’t play a home game for 10 days or so, fatigue, minor injuries that players sometimes wouldn’t play through (as they would in Europe). So that gives a bit of an edge to the gambler, as you cannot guarantee that a team will try 100%. They play 82 games per season, so losing one game doesn’t have the impact that it would on a team that plays only 30 games in Turkey.

The major problem with betting on the NBA is that the country doesn’t really appreciate the concept of betting. It’s only legal in certain areas of the country. Las Vegas is predominantly recognised in America as the centre for betting. So they have their own oddsmakers. As they are exposed to more coverage and more statistics, they are viewed as very well-informed and so few bookmakers across Europe will ever release any lines until Las Vegas has put up lines in their casinos. Now if Las Vegas moves a handicap, the average bookmaker thinks they know something that he doesn’t and so will automatically follow them. Because of this nature there are very few opinions out there as everybody is following Las Vegas lines, and there is little deviation. There are very little differences in the prices being offered, so that can be somewhat limiting for the bettor.

Do you think that bets on women’s basketball are easier to make than on men’s games?
I think that anybody trying to adopt betting as a lifestyle has more of a chance to make a living out of betting on women’s matches. I say this primarily because there is less coverage on women’s matches, and less coverage means the availability on information is lower, which means that the bettor has a bigger chance of beating the bookmaker if they can use the information more effectively than the bookmaker. You will often see on a men’s match that there will be nearly 50 companies all offering a very similar match price, with handicaps within one point of one another. Whereas only several companies will offer a woman’s match and that can lead to greater differences in handicaps. To realise a profit, though, you must be dedicated and use the information, but the women’s game is just as volatile as the men’s.

Since you must know a lot about international Basketball, who will win the Olympic tournament this summer?
It is always hard to look past the USA whenever they come to a major tournament; those who have over the last few years have probably made good profits. This year, however, they are taking it very seriously. They finished the season earlier, so that they can practice a more European style of offensive and defensive play, which they have struggled with in recent years, and have also been coached with international refereeing, which is different to that of the NBA. They would be my recommendation, as they are taking a very strong team – even with Le Bron’s recent injury. But if you are looking at an outsider, then the Greeks looked very strong at the qualifying tournament (albeit they were at home) or Argentina, who are placed in the weaker group and, if all goes to plan, avoid the USA until the final.

And of course … who will win the Euroleague 2009 in Berlin…?
Tough question, but Olympiakos have made some good signings over the summer, and with the playoffs moving to five-game series instead of three-, Greece is a very difficult place to go. Also keep an eye on Efes Pilsen: They were going strong last year until players refused to go to Belgrade for a match (they were all subsequently cut), and they have been very active over the summer trying to rebuild for the Euroleague this year.

Thank you very much, Philip, for this great interview!

Come on, Kobe!

Not much Euroleague in this post at all - sorry! Not even anything negative to say about any European player on the Lakers. Well - in the first half of game 4 you had to like what Mr. Radmanovic did: hitting threes. Read more

Marcus Goree to stay another three years in Moscow

Our friends over at undrcrwn Europe are former basketball professionals (Ibi Diarra, Frankfurt Skyliners) and stay in contact with their former team mates. One of Ibi´s friends, Mario Kasun battles for the ACB championship right now, but unfortunately is down 0-2 against Tau Ceramica.

Another friend of Ibi, Marcus Goree has won everything this season - most important thing: the Euroleague. Marcus recently visited Ibi at his show room in Frankfurt, Germany.

As we learned there, Marcus Goree will stay another three years with CSKA Moscow - not too bad of a choice I guess…

Basketball betting: The man behind the odds

Ever wondered who makes the odds and how? You probably thought it’s all done by computers, but no: Even in this business, the computer can’t take the place of a human being. This is is why we talked to Arvids, an odds compiler for Betway.com. Arvids gets paid for dealing with sports and bets all day long, so we had some interesting questions for him.

What exactly does an odds compiler like you are have to do? Is it a 24/7 job?
To put it in a fun way, I would have to say that I am being paid for reading about sports, analyzing sports and watching sports. But in truth it goes way more beyond that since it’s hardly all fun in general. One thing is to try and come up with odds which actually takes a lot of thought and a lot of time if you wanna do it in a proper way. But after the odds are done, then comes the hard part - managing risks. This is where you might look like a guy who is just staring at the screen and watching some betting tickets coming in. Yet, during that time you can of course research other stuff, but one thing is clear: I have to be on top of my game, otherwise it might end up badly. And more often than not it has been proven that if bookies do not pay attention to detail, they are going to pay for it.

When it comes to working hours, it’s hardly is a 24/7 job, but at least for me it is well over 40 hours per week as well. Kinda working 7 days a week and on many occasions it does take more than 12 hours a day, so sometimes my working week can go into 60 or 70 hours. I am earning my living with what I truly love, but there is one shortcoming: Where do I draw the line and say that work ends and hobby starts?

What is your strategy for making odds? For example, how much and what kind of research do you do?
Of course, I start with some generic stuff that I have to look at. Like, home or away, recent form, overall performance, head-to-head for teams (and not like 15 years ago when it hardly matters), injuries and suspensions. Those are the clear-cut factors that I believe people where familiar with. Since I am more of a basketball kinda guy (yet I compile odds on many other sports as well), then I will just elaborate a bit on that as well.

Personally, I believe that basketball is a game of matchups between players and at a high level every team tries to take advantage of those matchups, so I have to figure out how they might pan out. I look at all positions on the court, I try to put players against each other and figure out where each team has an advantage, and then try to figure out how much benefit it gives in term of points. Unlike the NBA, in European basketball coaches come a lot more into play on odds in my opinion as well. On thing I find really great about oddsmaking is when you have to deal with injuries in basketball. In general, the public (and also smart guys on many occasions) clearly overreacts or underestimates some injuries. There is hardly a player in Europe that is worth four or more points on the spread to his team but once the leader goes out, everyone tends to write that team off, like people generally did to CSKA when they went to Vitoria in group stages. But there are cases of underestimation: The best example was the Partizan-Efes Pilsen match where some Efes guys refused to go to Serbia. Partizan went from -2.5 point favorites to -9.5 in some places. What happened was that people underplayed the importance of it and were kinda betting against Partizan and not that much on Efes Pilsen, but what it came down to was that all of those combined were too important for Efes together. Because if eliminated every one of them singly, it would have made the line something like -7.5 on Partizan or so, but combined effect also has to be accounted for. This is where I challenge myself and try to thrive in it.

I am trying to learn more and more on the American way of compiling basketball odds, but you have to make some adjustments since there are hardly any situational spots for most teams in Europe. But to be fair, there is a lot to learn.

Do you think it’s possible to make a living with basketball bets?
With the current state of the market I personally doubt it, since limits are mostly nowhere near as good as people wish (only maybe at the game day, but by then the value has faded away). For starters, I do not think that one person could be any good on all basketball leagues in general; three to four is maximum that I think one person could cover at a high level when betting. So that already diminishes your options, but if you have a group of people who mesh well you could have a go at it, but once you show your skill, bookies see that, your limits are taken down and that complicates the process. But this is my thinking based on the experiences that I have here, since I might not have enough time for betting as such in general as work takes considerable time of my day here. If you solely concentrated on betting then you might have a shot at it, but the limit issue is what I would say is going to stop that. You could sustain it over a short term, but making a living is not six months; I’m speaking more about period of three to four years for starters.

What is more interesting, NBA bets or European basketball bets?
When it comes to betting, European basketball is more interesting to me, since there are still more gaps to fill and I love that kind of stuff. In the NBA, there are hardly any unknown things in general, but you have to think more about situational capping and stuff like that, which I personally still have not mastered since I have not had time to go into detail.

When it comes to watching the game, the NBA is clearly entertainment-based and I love it, since I cannot watch European basketball just for fun: I always analyze the game in my head, I always think about players and how they deal with situations on the court.

Do you think that bets on women’s basketball are easier to make than on men’s games?
When it comes to making odds, then there is hardly any difference in the process as such, but it is just harder to find some solid information about teams in general in women’s basketball. But when it comes to betting, finding value is a lot easier in women’s basketball since bookies rarely pay attention to women’s basketball as being instrumental element in their offerings. Limits of course are lower than for men’s basketball at a given bookie, but when it comes to women’s basketball, you will see bookies mostly copying odds from one another, so you will have wider range of bookies with the same value out there.

Since you must know a lot about international Basketball, who will win the Olympic tournament this summer?
No matter how people in Europe would not like to hear it, the US is gonna go all the way. Currently they are doing all the right things for it to happen. People worried how will all those big stars co-exist together on the court, but it seems that a guy like Carmelo will take on scoring for the most part. LeBron and Kobe will do the ball distribution as well, with loads of double teams and giving up the ball to the free guy. Zone defense should no longer be a problem for them, since they’ve seen enough of it over the regular season as it is now allowed in the NBA. Defensively they should be OK, and they will pay a lot more attention on defending the pick-and-roll more effectively (a huge problem for them in past tournaments). So if they continue doing all the right things, there is no team in the world that should be able to match the skill and athleticism of this team.

Thank you very much for your time, Arvids.

General questions about international and European basketball

Over the last few weeks, we’ve received a few interesting questions from Luke T. Johnson of the “China Daily ” and we decided to make them open to the public. Here you go:

1. How have international teams from Europe and South America managed to close the gap on the US?
I am a huge European and South American basketball fan, but I would not say the gap is closed yet. In terms of marketing and especially investing into the sport, basketball in the United States is still a step ahead. Over here in Europe, you will only find basketball diehards to invest money into a team. If the team is not successful or if the investor does not like the decisions made by the coach or president, he pulls back and the club is no longer a top team. Since there is no draft in the NBA, the teams also do not get the opportunity to get great talented players like Cleveland’s Lebron James, who took his team to the NBA finals last year. In Europe, the best players are on the wealthiest clubs — CSKA Moscow, Panathinaikos, Real Madrid …

2. What has been the most significant factor (or factors) that has enabled the rest of the world to catch up with the US?
Basketball overseas has been made interesting for good basketball players mostly by the money they are able to pay now. Players that do not get that much playing time on a NBA team can become important players on Euroleague teams. This makes the sport more attractive to fans that follow the NBA mostly. With the recent wins of European teams against NBA teams in exhibition games, domestic fans have seen that it’s worth cheering for their home team again.

3. What do you think about the reported World Club Championships for next year? Will it actually happen? Will NBA teams compete? How would the Euroleague clubs match up against top NBA clubs?
The Word Club Championships will happen, simply because FIBA just announced so, but will it be successful? Will NBA teams and even Euroleague teams participate? Under the circumstances FIBA released this new championship, probably not. Neither the NBA or the Euroleague will participate with the schedule produced by FIBA; without the best teams from those leagues, it won’t be successful. Even if both leagues can agree on a better date, I doubt that we will see the matchup of CSKA Moscow against the 2008 NBA Champions - although I think this would be a very interesting game, if both teams play with they best players, but right now this is only a big dream.

4. As someone who seems to have seen a lot of both the NBA and Euroleague, how would you compare the two experiences — not just the game itself, but how popular it is, how fans react, the personalities of the players, the rivalries, and so on?
If you want to see passionate fans, come to Europe and watch the Euroleague. Actually you don’t even have to come to Europe. Last year’s NBA vs. Euroleague preseason games proved how passionate European fans are, when they filled the arena in Houston, Texas, for Panathinaikos playing the Rockets. Rivalries are more comparable to NFL rivalries, where some fans really hate each other and being a fan is not just putting on a basketball jersey and taking the kids to see a basketball game for two hours: You live your life for this club.

Another big difference between the NBA and the Euroleague: Players aren’t the most important and most known thing - it is all about the team. When Kobe Bryant, Lebron James and Kevin Garnett are the trademarks for the NBA, you will see names such as CSKA Moscow, Real Madrid or Maccabi Tel Aviv in Europe representing the league. This has been formed over the years through the basketball culture in Europe and reflects on how fans see teams: team basketball.

5. What do you think of the FIBA rule changes? How will this impact the global game?
Finally the NBA has no chance to complain anymore! Oh, I am sure they will complain that their ball is smaller … NO - I am just kidding - both leagues will profit from these rule changes when it comes to national team play. Hopefully the European leagues will be able to adapt the rules quickly and we will see at least every first division team in Europe use them. Don’t forget: Only 30 NBA teams have to bring the three-point line closer, while thousands across Europe alone must - Time to open a business to print these lines on basketball floors!

6. Basketball outside of North America is known for its passing and team-first approach. Is there another explanation for the “international style” than just a foundation in soccer?
The explanation for the “international style” being linked to soccer is new, too. At least, I never though about it. In my opinion, the style played by European basketball teams is firstly linked to a different approach to the game. While the US system promotes the stardom and the 1-on-1 play through its rules and media, the European basketball doesn’t face this type of promotion. In Europe, you talk more about CSKA or Panathinaikos than about Siskauskas or Diamantidis.

With this “education,” European players don’t have much intention to develop into individual superstars. The fact that in younger years, the European player normally gets the whole package in terms of basketball fundamentals also favors this type of basketball. If you have centers that can pass, that gives a whole different game than a situation in which the big guys merely set picks and dunks.

7. Who do you predict will be in the final game in Beijing?
I think that Team USA will make it to the Final. The second team to qualify is very difficult to predict because already you don’t know all the teams that will be there. But I think that Russia will have a good chance to qualify. Argentina I don’t think that they are strong enough to qualify for the Final as their generation is getting older. The same counts for Greece. If Lithuania really gets Zydrunas Ilgauskas to play, they can also be contenders for the Gold Medal.

8. Are there any countries you think will be “surprise teams” in Beijing?
Here again, it is difficult to say as not all the teams are known so far. Angola can eventually be a surprise by beating some of the “established” teams as they did in the 2006 World Championships. Another team that can go for some surprising wins may be Australia who a generation of young players growing in important roles.

9. Any else you’d like to add about the international landscape?
The International basketball is closing the gap to the US basketball but the general basketball fan is still considering the US basketball way above. When you live in the United States, the fan is more concerned about high school basketball than the Euroleague. Even the losses of NBA teams in the preseason against Euroleague teams did not change the superiority complex of American basketball fans.

“Nowitzki era has not been used”

Remember Ademola Okulaja? In terms of college basketball, he is probably the most known German professional basketball player ever. He was on a North Carolina team with players like Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota, Shammond Williams and Makhtar N’Diaye and was named MVP of the Tar Heels in his senior year.

Right now Ademola plays in Bamberg, Germany, while trying to keep the German national team alive - alongside Dirk Nowitzki, of course.

In a recent interview with the German sport magazine SportBild, Ademola and fellow national team member Patrick Femerling talked about what’s wrong with German basketball.

You have to give these two guys credit since for speaking up! For someone who follows the German league closely, it is obvious that something isn’t working right. The official statement from the German federation and the “BBL”: “Not enough fans - everything revolves around soccer!”

Ademola and Femerling disagree:

“When we play in Germany with Dirk in the summer, the arenas are always full. It can’t be that hard to motivate sponsors and fans, if they fill the arenas every time for preseason games! We think that there is much more potential in German basketball, but the German federation has so far done a bad job in using the “Dirk Era.”

Germany right now is not among the best 10 teams in Europe, there is no way to compare Germany to Italy, France, Greece, Spain or Russia. The reasons? According to Femerling and Okulaja (the latter has a fancy web site by the way), the German league officials are the reason.

“It is important that fans can identify with their players and right at this moment they just can’t because of the lack of German players. This season, only three guys had to be German - next season it will be four. That does not improve the situation. We need at least six players and two of them have to be on the court all the time.”

This rule is nothing new. Countries like Italy and Spain have played with the rule for years while producing players like Navarro, Gasol, Bargnani and now Gallinari: guys that go at least 25 minutes a game in their domestic league and Euroleague play.

In Germany, German players average about 0-5 minutes per game and are paid accordingly. They have to keep a second job besides basketball to ensure they can earn money at all after their “career.”

So who does play in the German “BBL”? According to Femerling, the clubs prefer to get “cheap $20,000 Americans that stay in the league for three months and then move on.”

Germany had a good chance to develop basketball into a national sport that is respected and broadcast on TV with successful national teams in 2001, 2002 and 2005 when Dirk & Co. were among the top four teams at the European Championship. Now, they have fight to get to the Olympics in a qualifying tournament in Greece this July.

With rumors of Los Angeles Clippers star Chris Kaman joining the German national team soon, German basketball has another chance to go “big.” We all hope the federation does not squander this chance again.

Basketball bet: The Betonbasket.com interview

Here is another new “off season” basketball series, that provides a lot of great information to our readers. Almost everybody that I speak to is “investing” money into bets - basketball bets! Read more

Euroleague Final Four: A halftime with Jordi Bertomeu (Part 2)

Here is the second part of our interview with Jordi Bertomeu.

How does this agreement between Euroleague basketball and AEG impact the choice of Final Four locations?

The agreement with AEG is for three years. What is sure that is that the Final Four 2009 is in Berlin. We will be in London either in 2010 or in 2011. So there is still one year missing. We won’t be in Germany two years; that would be too much. And we don’t want to exclude non-AEG arenas as well. If we go two out of three years, that’s OK for us. We are in talks with Rome for the organization of a Final Four. If they are ready in time, we will go to Rome, but the question remains if they are ready.

Talking about the Final Four formula, the question about the format itself has been raised. Is a Final Four tournament or a best-of-five series the better format?

The best-of-five series was a mistake. It was probably the best basketball ever to be played in European basketball, but it was a disaster on the media front. There were only three broadcasters, for example, that covered the whole series. We will stick with the Final Four format for sure. This gives us the possibility to organize an event. We can meet everybody here and the media from all around Europe can be present to cover it. So I can say that I am happy to recognize my first mistake by having organized the final phase in the best-of-five series. The Final Four will be the format in the future for sure.

FIBA announced some rule changes. Does the Euroleague have a position on this?

We agree with these new rules nearly 100%. The only exception is the alternative position which I consider the worst rule. I am convinced that the other rules will change the game in a positive way. They protect the talented players with which we are satisfied. But why wait until 2010 to implement them? FIBA tells us that it’s difficult to find an agreement with all the different federations. On the other hand, the Euroleague cannot go their own way because then teams have to change the lines on the court every week because of different rules in Euroleague and their local leagues. So we try to find an agreement with the leagues to make these changes already for the next season. In the first discussions, most of them seemed interested.

What is your opinion about the World Club championship that has been announced by FIBA? Can you give us more details about this competition?

I don’t know more than you about it. Nobody from FIBA has explained the concept to us so far. We just know about it through the newspaper. First of all, the dates are impossible to realize it. The national leagues start on these dates. Also, it’s very unclear who will play, who will be the TV rights holder and so on. It is just an additional competition like the pre-Olympic tournament. The goal of it is to sell TV rights by using players that belong to ULEB teams.

It is very difficult to find good dates so for the moment we are in the darkness about this competition. We are not against such a tournaments but not on the proposed dates. The calendar is how it is.

Euroleague Final Four: A halftime with Jordi Bertomeu (Part 1)

During the Final Four, BallinEurope had the opportunity at halftime of the third-place game to speak in near exclusivity with Euroleague basketball CEO Jordi Bertomeu. Bertomeu invited us together with Horst Schneider from German Forward Magazine and Ian Whittell from the Times of London to talk about the agreement with AEG and what this means for Euroleague basketball.

Read more

Euroleague Final Four LIVE chat

The Final Four is coming closer and closer. Somehow we I feel like I would need some more basketball right now. The Euroleague should find something to fill in the break right?

At least we have the NBA playoffs going on, the FIBA Europcup was going on, as well as the ULEB cup.

But we want to talk EUROLEAGUE BASKETBALL again! This is why we will invite every reader tomorrow to join some experts, such as Jonathan Givony from draftexpress.com and Yarone Arbel to join all of us to talk about the final four.

Date: today!

time: 20.30 European time

place: here

If you want to set up a reminder just fill in the form.

Next Page »