Going into tonight’s games four, nothing has changed within the elite, though mid-pack much jostling for position may be seen. With the group leaders all in excellent position to at least solidify a strong hold on a semifinals berth, this could prove to be a make-or-break week for no fewer than those nine sides in the scrum.

The key word for week four, then, in BallinEurope’s estimation: Injuries. The ‘bug is truly hunkering down amid some Euroleague teams, and one could build a pretty decent roster from those who are out, questionable or hampered this week. Potential difference-makers who will be sitting include, among others, Viktor Khryapa (CSKA); Ante Tomic (Real Madrid); Omer Onan, Marko Tomas (Milano); Kerem Gonlum, Ermal Kuqo (Anadolu Efes); Steven Smith (PAO); and Shawn James (Maccabi Tel Aviv).

Below run another edition of the BiE power rankings as we enter this decisive week. Once again, please note that these rankings are an indicator of how teams are trending, with some consideration given to play in other leagues and heavy emphasis on Euroleague results.

Without further ado, then, onto the rankings! Go ahead, you can guess the first four, surely…

Prospective quarterfinalists
1. (↔) CSKA Moscow (13-0 in Euroleague play overall; 10-1 in VTB United League, 8-1 in PBL)
2. (↔) FC Barcelona (12-1 EL; 16-3 ACB)
3. (↔) Montepaschi Siena (11-2 EL; 14-5 Serie A) – Will anything change among the top four straight through to Istanbul? Barça and Siena are red-hot while, Viktor Khyrapa or no, CSKA is deep enough to have the luxury of choosing which two players to bench at upset-minded Galatasaray. No one could fault any of these team’s fans for looking into lodging in Istanbul in May.

4. (↔) Unics Kazan (10-3 EL; 10-1 VTB; 4-4 PBL) – Kazan took a loss in Russia on Sunday at Triumph Lyubertsy, 71-61, and uglied things up in last week’s 56-44 win versus Milano. Luckily, at this juncture when EL teams must avoid shooting cold, the Russian side gets to beat up on the Armanis again tonight.

On the cusp
5. (↑) Panathinaikos (9-4 EL; 14-1 Greek League) – They’re baaaaaaaaack! The only question is, is it for good this time? The team’s 77-56 immolation of Fenerbahce Ulker last week put PAO back in the driver’s seat for at least one of those two Group G seeds for the quarterfinals; this week, all the Greens must do is overcome that same Ulker team sans Omer Onan. And in Athens.

6. (↔) Real Madrid (10-3 EL; 15-4 ACB) – How concerned should Los Blancos be after losing to Gescrap Bilbao at home on Sunday? A bit, perhaps; how do you lose while shooting 58.33% overall, including 10-of-19 on threes? Not only does the loss knock Real back into second place on the ACB table, they enter tomorrow night’s match against Bilbao at 1-2 in head-to-head play and with Ante Tomic not 100%. (And that’s the sound of a few thousand Madridistas biting fingernails.)

7. (↑) Bennet Cantu (7-6 EL; 11-8 Serie A) – An impressive 82-74 win over Maccabi plus the addition of Doron Perkins equals this year’s Euroleague Cinderella story.

8. (↓) Maccabi Tel Aviv (8-5 EL; 18-1 ABA; 12-2 Ligat Ha’al) – BiE will quote his own answer to Euro-Step’s question, “Which team has underperformed the most?”: “Not even close: Maccabi Tel Aviv. Supposed to be a F4 contender and killing in the ABA … what is happening with these guys in EL?”

9 (tie). (↓) Galatasaray Medical Park (5-8 EL; 13-3 TBL)
9 (tie). (↑) Olympiacos (7-6 EL; 15-1 Greek League) – Blowouts as equalizer: The Reds may have put in their best Euroleague performance of the 2011-12 season with their emphatic 83-65 win over Fenerbahce Ulker, while Galatasaray simply could not hang with CSKA. BiE has the teams deadlocked because at present the Turkish side holds the tiebreaker in Group E.

The most excellent news for Olympiacos from the Ulker game was the excellent distribution in scoring. BiE reckoned the Reds need to find production from someone other than Vassilis Spanoulis, and last week they found lots of someones – Kostas Sloukas, Richard Dorsey, Kostas Papanikolaou … this is the kind of balanced attack Oly needs to bring for the rest of the EL race.

11. (↑) Gescrap Bilbao Basket (6-7 EL; 10-9 ACB) – Bilbao readied for its third match against Real Madrid in a week by topping the former ACB table-toppers on Sunday, though the Gescrappers can hardly count on the lights-out shooting they found then. This week, the storyline promises the upstarts homecourt advantage and the Euroleague-activated Mamadou Samb.

Struggling, crashing, and/or burning
12 (tie). (↔) Fenerbahce Ulker (7-6 EL; 11-5 TBL)
12 (tie). (↓) Anadolu Efes Pilsen (6-7 EL; 14-2 TBL) – Not such a great year for Istanbul to host the Euroleague Final Four tournament after all, perhaps. The three Turkish franchises remaining are a disappointing 5-10 in the past five weeks of EL play.

14. (↔) Zalgiris Kaunas (4-9 EL; 5-6 VTB; 12-0 LKL) – Hey, have you heard that Sonny Weems was the top vote-getter for the LKL All-Star Game? No, it doesn’t have much to do with the Euroleague, but it *is* good news.

15. (↔) Unicaja (4-9 EL; 12-7 ACB) – Now 2-7 in 2012, Unicaja’s recent 0-4 run has seen them lose by an average of 16 points. Of course, the offense could be worse. It could be like that of…

16. (↔) Emporio Armani Milano (5-8 EL; 12-7 Serie A) – Seriously? 44 points? That was in one half, right?

Kyle Singler landed at Real Madrid after the departure of Rudy Fernandez, who had played the first 10 league games with Los Blancos, back to the NBA after the player lockout ended. The Real brain trust then decided to spring for the Real Madrid forward who until then had played the start of the 2011-12 season with Lucentum Alicante, contributing great performances and helping Alicante to stand firm in the top positions in the Liga Endesa.

As an athletic wing player with good physical abilities and great individual technique, Singler met the necessary criteria to substitute for Fernandez. Head coach Pablo Laso bet big on him, and Singler is gradually achieving a greater role in winning the team game. Madrid has a large staff, and it’s not easy for a newcomer to break into the team, but with hard work and commitment, Singler is improving his contribution within the team – something all his teammates are beginning to notice.

Singler debuted for Madrid in week 11 of the ACB season against Asefa Estudiantes, scoring his first five points for the Whites in 12 minutes. From that moment, he began to see more playing time, gradually seeing his minutes increase to about 20 per game; his work has proportionally grown in scoring, though with Madrid, Singler has not quite reached the numbers he achieved with Alicante. His 10 points last Sunday at Fuenlabrada was his high with Real Madrid in Spain, although in Euroleague games against Anadolu Efes and Unicaja Malaga, the new Madridista went for 12 and 13 points, respectively. His averages with Los Blancos include 5.3 points, 2.1 rebounds and 0.75 assists in 17.5 minutes per game.

Beyond numbers, Singler’s real contributions to Real Madrid translates are in the intangibles of trust. Laso trusts him, and in recent games Singler has been a fixture on the floor late. The rotation allows Singler to team with Carlos Suárez, thus giving Los Blancos two tall and strong bodies able to shoot from outside while also cleaning up off the glass.

Singler is doing well in team play, providing safety and strength on D. His physical condition allows him to defend smaller players as well as bigs, with his ability to work his height and intensity against 2s and 3s. He makes few mental and physical errors, for which his team is grateful. Moreover, his technical proficiency makes him a great option on the fast break, the main feature of the Madrid game in 2011-12. In short, Singler is growing in importance within the team, and his numbers are slowly improving as he makes his presence more obvious.

What can Real expect of Singler for the remainder of the season? For now, Laso’s player has managed to adapt to his role within the template, i.e. in the starting forward role in rotation with Suarez. The team must expect an increase in scoring from Singler, as his confidence increases and he more completely adapts within the team. Singler must offer a greater number of shots, especially from outside, and to support Jaycee Carroll’s contribution from the perimeter. Singler is able to score threes, and should be exploited much more in this area. Most importantly, Madrid must keep working with Singler to keep him on his current path of success.

Traditional advisory warning: These ratings are pretty much highly subjective, as they are formulated from one source, i.e. BiE, and are based on the way teams are trending at present. While play in other leagues was considered, emphasis was put on Euroleague performance especially, and particularly on the two games each has registered in Top 16 play.

And on to the rankings!

The undefeated
1. (↔) CSKA Moscow (12-0 in Euroleague play overall; 9-1 in VTB United League, 8-1 in PBL)
2. (↔) FC Barcelona (9-1 EL; 13-3 ACB)
3. (↑) Montepaschi Siena (10-2 EL; 13-5 Serie A) – No surprises here, unless you count the emphatic statement wins recorded by each of these elite teams in week two at Maccabi Tel Aviv, vs. Anadolu Efes, and at Real Madrid, respectively. NBA fans are chattering about a shortened season? Ha! With each of these teams at 2-0 and having knocked off the no. 2 contender within their groups, they’ve all made the 2011-12 EL Top 16 round a hell of a lot more urgent for nearly every side in the big league.

4. (↑) Unics Kazan (9-3 EL; 10-1 VTB; 4-3 PBL) – Two exclamatory questions: One, who would have thought that the most important American player in Russia this season would be Henry Domercant? And two, how ‘bout this dark horse, huh? Right now, Bad Henry is penciled in on BiE’s Euroleague All-Star squad, and he’s certainly to be worth watching tonight against Emporio Armani Milano after his amazing 7-of-11 overall shooting display for 21 points at Panathinaikos in week two.

The undeterred
5. (↑) Galatasaray Medical Park (5-7 EL; 13-3 TBL) – Unlike other sides that squeaked through into the Top 16 (Olympiacos, Milano, BiE’s looking at you…), Galatasaray has shown itself to be capable of playing with the big boys after all. The inspiring overtime win against the Reds in week resulted in a huge step toward the tournament round and a big jump in these power rankings. Of course, with the Big Red Machine hosting this Turkish side tomorrow night, this may be as high as Galatasaray ascends on this table.

6. (↓) Real Madrid (9-3 EL; 15-3 ACB) – Perhaps BiE is calling this one a bit early, but could the disappointing home loss to Montepaschi – to be fair, one of the few teams in Europe who can keep up with this season’s free-shooting, fast-running Real – indicative of the team’s traditional late-winter swoon that annually seems to set them firmly in second place at home and abroad behind FC Barcelona? (Unfortunately, ACB wins against Caja Laboral Baskonia and at Fuenlabrada don’t tell us especially much.)

7. (↓) Panathinaikos (8-4 EL; 14-1 ESAKE) – Every week this Euroleague season, BiE measures his estimation of PAO’s true standing on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 represents utterly superstitiously believing that the Greens can’t advance to the EL championship and 10 represents the faith that clever coach Obradovic has his boys playing possum and conserving energy for later rounds, NBA-style. After the six-point loss to Kazan in which “the Greens allowed a Euroleague opponent at OAKA the most points in the regulation 40 minutes in [just over five years when] Partizan won there 93-80 on January 24, 2007,” the meter’s around a 3.5.

8. (↓) Maccabi Tel Aviv (8-4 EL; 17-1 ABA; 12-2 Ligat Ha’al) – BiE can’t decide which loss is more perplexing: The crazy 26-point beatdown Barcelona handed them last week (with Juan Carlos Navarro limited by injury, no less) or the five-point upset by visiting eight-place Maccabi Ashdod back home on Monday night. What is going on in Tel Aviv…?

The undefined
9. (↑) Gescrap Bilbao Basket (6-6 EL; 9-9 ACB) – Still hanging on in its inaugural Euroleague bid with a sweet win against the reeling Unicaja Malaga, Bilbao must face Real in Madrid tonight for the second time in three days … and on Sunday, Madrid delivered a 22-point defeat.

10. (↔) Anadolu Efes (6-6 EL; 14-2 TBL) – Yet another backer-in, Anadolu is now in complete stumbling mode after the drubbing handed them by CSKA Moscow last week. This Turkish side is a disappointing 1-3 in its last four Euroleague games and pretty much needs to win against Olympiacos to keep in the race for the tournament. No word yet on Tarance Kinsey, whose playing time has been limited in January due to a minor injury.

11. (↑) Bennet Cantu (6-6 EL; 11-7 Serie A) – Like Anadolu Efes, Cantu is on a 1-3 “run,” with its own losing streak snapped thanks to the heart-stopping one-point win against Zalgiris Kaunas. Like Galatasaray, this week’s ranking could represent the peak for this team in 2011-12.

12. (↓) Fenerbahce Ulker (7-5 EL; 11-5 TBL) — The return of Roko Ukic was enough to get Fenerbahce past Milano last week … barely. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of them holding Panathinaikos to just 32 two-point attempts tomorrow night, either.

The underwhelming
13. (↓) Olympiacos (6-6 EL; 14-1 ESAKE) – Vassilis Spanoulis’ Euroleague stat line: 31.0 minutes, 19.4 points, 4.5 assists, 0.5 steals per game. The best marks posted by other Olympiacos players: 21.0 mpg (by Georgios Printezis), 9.4 ppg (Printezis again), 3.1 apg (Lazaros Papadopoulous), 0.8 spg (Lucas Kalin, Evangelos Mantzaris). The solution to the Reds’ woes: Clone Spanoulis three times over and put them on the floor with, say, Pero Antic.

14. (↔) Zalgiris Kaunas (4-8 EL; 5-6 VTB; 9-0 LKL) – Poor Zalgiris. Into a tailspin in VTB United League competition, Zalgiris caught a nasty case of Lebron’s Disease for the EL Top 16 round, first managed to play Maccabi tough in Lithuania and secondly running up a double-digit lead on Cantu in Italy before falling apart in the fourth quarter each time. Zalgiris is still in the running, one supposes, but a miracle – like maybe the return of Ty Lawson and not this sort – will indeed be needed with a Barcelona back-to-back on tap.

15. (↓) Unicaja (4-8 EL; 12-6 ACB) – The power rankings are all about trending … and BiE dares say no high-level team outside of Washington, D.C., is trending worse than Unicaja right now. After starting the season at a combined 8-2 in combined Euroleague and Liga Endesa play, this Spanish side has bottomed out to go 2-5 in 2012 thus far for an overall mark of 16-14, sinking into a fourth-place tie on the ACB table and essentially facing EL elimination vs. Montepaschi Siena tonight.

16. (↓) Emporio Armani Milano (5-7 EL; 11-7 Serie A)BiE’s said it before and BiE’ll say it again: “So much talent on paper, such limited success on the court…” Are all fingers officially pointed at Sergio Scariolo yet?

Once again, the caveat emptor-ish bit: These ratings are formulated from once source (namely yours truly) and are based on the way teams are trending at present. While play in other leagues was considered, emphasis was put on performance in the latter bits of the EL season.

To the rankings!

Top dogs
1. CSKA Moscow (10-0 in Euroleague regular season; 8-1 in VTB United League, 7-1 in PBL) – Remember the date December 10, 2011: That’s the last time the scary Red Army lost, in falling to BC Khimki in Russia while getting just seven minutes out of Andrei Kirilenko. The Red Army’s only loss before that was exactly one month prior when they fell in a squeaker at Spartak St. Petersburg in their VTB opener. Considering the starting team alone – an all-star squad of Kirilenko, Milos Teodosic, Nenad Krstic, Ramunas Siskauskas, Viktor Khryapa – BiE has to wonder what non-NBA team could beat ‘em. Even after the star power, the CSKA Moscow bench contributed 43.2 points per game in Euroleague play while the team leads in overall performance rating, assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. This has got to be considered the team to beat in 2012.

2. FC Barcelona (9-1 EL; 13-3 ACB) – While standing mostly pat with the core that has made Barca a Final Four threat for years, the team’s sole headline acquisition – Marcelinho Huertas in lieu of whatshisname now with the Minnesota Timberwolves – has turned out just fine and dandy as the Blaugrana appear headed for at least the final eight tournament. Of course, all this depends on the return of Juan Carlos Navarro…

3. Maccabi Tel Aviv (7-3 EL; 15-1 ABA; 11-1 Ligat Ha’al) – Though a 33-5 overall record is nothing to scoff at (as Adriatic League teams would surely agree), BiE gets the feeling that Maccabi still hasn’t hit its rhythm – not to mention the fact that this side has done more roster shuffling over the past 2 ½ months than any other EL side save Zalgiris, with three key members of their ranks (Omri Casspi, Jordan Farmar, Jeremy Pargo) re-emigrating to the USA. BiE’s giving David Blatt & Co. the benefit of the doubt here, but much may depend on how soon Demond Mallet is integrated alongside Keith Langford on this suddenly frontcourt-heavy squad.

4. Real Madrid (8-2 EL; 13-3 ACB) – Currently in a statistical tie in Spain with FC Barcelona, Real Madrid closed its Euroleague with an impressive six wins in a row after losing a one-point squeaker at Partizan Belgrade on November 10th. After years of futilely courting big men to body up with Barca’s, Madrid did an about-face for 2011-12 in a game plan calling for stretching the floor in a Montepaschian wide-open court. The results? The highest-scoring team in the ACB and the EL, and one of either league’s most exciting to boot. But, as Madridistas scarcely need reminding, there’s some way to go yet before the finals.

5. The fits-and-starts course Panathinaikos (7-3 EL; 11-3 ESAKE) is taking in 2011-12 ain’t fooling BiE. Sure, on the surface the Greens appear to be sporting a rapidly aging roster (oldest in this edition of Euroleague, as a matter of a fact) and having benefitted from relatively light competition in the first EL round, but all BiE can see is innovative coach Zeljko Obradovic producing more than the sum of this (three-time champion in the past five years) team’s parts – Seriously, do you realize just three Panathinaikos players – Dimitris Diamantidis, Steven Smith and Romain Sato – started in all 10 EL regular-season games?

6. Montepaschi Siena (8-2 EL; 12-4 Serie A) doesn’t appear quite as dominant back home as they have been for a decade or so; could parity be returning to Italy or are Euroleague-first economics finally catching up to Ferdinando Minucci’s side?

The X Factors (at least early on)
7. Olympiacos (6-4 EL; 11-3 ESAKE) – New management reshaped the Reds with a conspicuous lack of overexpensive name players for 2011-12 and it may be that this team is finally coming together – just in time to incorporate the sure-to-be-welcomed Partizan Belgrade’s Acie Law, though one wonders how well the run-and-go Law will fit with an Olympiacos side that prefers halfcourt play. At 11-1 overall since starting 1-3 in EL play, Reds backers are surely praying for a smooth transition.

8. Unics Kazan (10-1 VTB; 3-3 PBL) – Damn right, BiE went there. Look, this Russian side is clearly the second-best team in the VTB League and closed Euroleague regular-season play proving they’re for real by winning six of their last seven, including a nice 79-73 victory over Siena in Italy. Fans have got to be loving the acquisition of Bostjan Nachbar to give Unics much more mobility (plus hopefully rebounds and blocks – the team was woefully middle-of-the-road in both categories in 10 EL games) in the paint. All in all, BiE’s penciling these guys in as the no. 2 seed out of Group G…

9. …though it could easily be Fenerbahce Ulker (6-4 EL; 10-5 TBL), although the Turkish side is in the midst of an underwhelming season which has them in a lowly (for them) sixth place in Turkey going into the weekend. Worst of all for Fenerbahce is the injury to point guard Roko Ukic which will sideline him for minimum two Euroleague games. Given the increasing importance the playmaker position tends to take as European competitions reach conclusion and the opening-night opponent Unics, Fenerbahce’s Top 16 run could effectively end quite quickly.

Outside, looking in
10. Anadolu Efes (5-5 EL; 13-2 TBL) – Tops of the table at home, Anadolu Efes backed into the Euroleague Top 16 with losses at Tel Aviv and vs. Madrid. While this team’s capacity for clampdown D was (mostly) admirable in the regular season, the low-watt Efes continually fought to score. With only two active players with double-figure averages (Sasha Vujacic, Dusko Savanovic) and Tarance Kinsey out in the short-term due to injury, how will this team compete in the high-scoring Group E?

11. So much talent on paper, such limited success on the court … Emporio Armani Milano (4-6 EL; 10-6 Serie A) is definitely the enigma of this Euroleague season. The key question: Should we take the inspiring win at Pionir as a sign that they’ve righted the ship after a disastrous four-game EL losing streak?

12. Unicaja (4-6 EL; 12-4 ACB) – On the plus side, Unicaja’s playing more competitively in the ACB than they have in years. On the minus side, the team’s 4-6 Euroleague mark in 2011 obfuscates a 3-1 (!) start. And now Joel Freeland’s out for at least two games.

13. Gescrap Bilbao Basket (5-5 EL; 7-9 ACB) – After starting 1-3 (and 2-4), Bilbao came back strong to close out its inaugural Euroleague regular season with wins against Fenerbahce and Caja Laboral Baskonia … but that may be all she wrote for last year’s plucky ACB runners-up.

The bottom three
14 (tie). Bennet Cantu (5-5 EL; 10-6 Serie A)
14 (tie). Galatasaray Medical Park (4-6 EL; 12-3 TBL)
14 (tie). Zalgiris Kaunas (4-6 EL; 5-5 VTB; 9-0 LKL) – Commonalities between this trio: All three needed closing-night tiebreakers to advance, all should be looking forward to their respective national championship tournaments, and all will most likely join the “non-contenders” list fairly quickly. How did they get here? Bennet Cantu backed in with convincing losses at Olympiacos and vs. Fenerbahce; Galatasaray went 0-6 against Top 16 qualifiers, slipping into advancement by beating up on Union Olimpija and Asseco Prokom; and Zalgiris was nearly as unimpressive, going 1-5 against second-tier squads. BiE won’t quite say “Wait ‘til next year” yet, but that wish is coming soon…

And here’s another: Enjoy the games!

Gasol’s FC Barcelona, which also included the just-about 20-year-old Juan Carlos Navarro, ultimately fell to Aleksandar Đorđević and Alberto Angulo’s Real Madrid in five games.

(Has it really been that long…?)

Tiago Splitter, whose Caja Laboral Baskonia met Rubio’s FC Barcelona many a time since the lad debuted in the ACB at age 14, is quoted over at Spanish-league Tu Basket that he was “amazed at the way [Rubio]’s playing with freedom. In Spain, he was on a team under a lot of pressure to win it all. Here, the coach is giving him the ball in the fourth quarter and he’s playing with confidence. That’s hard to do in the first year.”

Splitter cited Minnesota Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman as a key factor in Rubio’s early NBA success. As TuBasket points out, with Barcelona, Rubio was bound in Xavi Pascual’s more rigid style and ultimately lost playing time to Victor Sada, who was better equipped to handle the offensive game plan – despite Rubio’s well above-average play in pick-and-roll sets.

Currently, Rubio is averaging a neat 12.0 minutes per fourth quarter, the only NBA player at any position to post this mark.

Added Manu Ginobili: “[The Spurs-Timberwolves game] made a big, big impression on me. On Sunday night [in the game against the Mavericks], he was impressive, the way he led the team in the fourth quarter, finding open players. And, of course, he was helped by Kevin Love, who is playing incredibly.”

Among Rubio’s attributes as a player, according to the Argentine, include “A lot of ball control and [court vision]. But that’s something we knew was going to happen. He may have other weaknesses, but he plays calmly, and is very talented at passing the ball and dribbling.”

*Los Angeles Lakers fans, over whom a huge cloud of doom hangs to start this season, excluded (sigh).

As in the Eastern Conference preview, BiE seeks to keep an eye on those players who contributed a stint in Continental ball this summer during the lockout period and even, to some, extent participants in Eurobasket 2011. BiE believes that the running start from real game-time situations plus the suddenly intensive NBA season will give the Euroballers an advantage in the short-term against more laggardly opponents not in “basketball shape.” And with the shortened regular season, a jump start will provide lasting effects.

To BiE, it looks something like this.

Northwest Division
It’s another case of ecstasy in being proven wrong: Since at least, what, the beginning of the 2009-10 Euroleague season, BiE has brazenly (though not Fearlessly™) told anyone who’d listen that Ricky Rubio would never play ball for the Minnesota Timberwolves, we’re just a day away from that very occurrence. The Human Highlight Clip went to work a couple times in the preseason and could start all 66 games this year.

But could Ricky even lead what GM David “Noonien Singh” Kahn likes to think may be a “steady rise to the top”? Wellllllllllllllllllllll, BiE wouldn’t necessarily go that far, though this is a scintillating, exciting lineup suddenly, with Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams and J.J. Barea aboard.

But wait! From Europe are ‘Wolves Nikola Pekovic and – o, yeah – Darko Milicic. Does any realize that Minnesota is 19-90 (.174) since acquiring Darko? These two things can’t be related, can they? This dude is as good a passer as Vlade Divac, after all…

We’ll see early on as the Timberwolves get to play tomorrow night against the mighty scary-looking…

…Oklahoma City Thunder. European basketball fans can’t help but to have noticed Serge Ibaka in the past half-year, with the naturalized Spaniard going from the NBA playoffs to Eurobasket to Liga Endesa/Euroleague play with Real Madrid. And he’s looked mostly real good throughout.

As essentially the sole new member on Team Spain for the European championship, Ibaka typically got 15-20 minutes per game for Los Rojos. A couple of key performances came against Lithuania (15 points on 7-of-9 shooting with quite a few dunks and putbacks, nine rebounds, two blocks) and France (10 points and seven rebounds in 24 minutes of play) in early rounds, but the real badass came to play in the championship game. While scoring just four points, Ibaka controlled the middle whenever on the floor and totaled five blocks in denying Les Bleus access to the paint.

Chasing this, Ibaka merely contributing single-digit scoring with a block or 1.5 per game in Spain and in the EL for weeks, until suddenly unleashed and blowing up just as the lockout ended for back-to-back games of five blocks and 12 points against Spirou Charleroi, then a monster 15-point, five-dunk, nine-rebound, six-block tour de force against CAI Zaragoza.

BiE can’t wait to see this guy in a starting role playing a lot of minutes – any question he’ll win the block title this season? And, o yeah, the rest of the Thunder’s pretty good, too. Real good. Championship-level good.

The Denver Nuggets have an interesting roster happening, including lockout Euroballers Danilo Gallinari (with Emporio Armani Milano), Rudy Fernandez (Real Madrid), Ty Lawson (Žalgiris Kaunas) and Timofey Mozgov (BC Khimki Moscow Region). Gallinari is certainly getting the thumbs up from top-level pundits, with ESPN’s fantasy basketball machine proclaiming him “[maybe] the best player on the Nuggets this season,” while touting his “game-high 23 points in a game-high 34 minutes in the Nuggets’ preseason finale victory Thursday night. Gallinari’s shot was off (6-for-17 FG), but he was able to get to the line (9-for-9 FT) and knock down a couple of treys while also producing six boards, three assists and two steals.”

Indeed, Gallinari’s shooting percentage has been in a steady decline in the NBA since entering the league, a trend that keeps him away from all-star (or at least near all-star) status. Who knows? Maybe the lack of distraction will help.

BiE believes Lawson will be worth watching. Established as point guard with a swell stat line of 11.7 points on 50.3% shooting plus 4.7 assists per game, Ty will serve as the poster boy for BiE’s “ready to play” ideology. Plus, maybe he’ll tweet something interesting…

Then there’s Fernandez. Probably the last NBAer out of Europe, this guy has been pining to get out of American ball for some time. As the lockout ended, Real Madrid talked about attempting to keep Rudy aboard … then he had troublesome visa problems … let’s just hope the new team means a new start for the Madridista.

Finally! Enes Kanter suits up for the Utah Jazz! And with Mehmet Okur now dealt, Kanter should be seeing lots of quality time behind Al Jefferson – after seeing some nice continued development on Kanter’s part during Eurobasket, BiE anticipates the Turk’s season highly; with more confidence and work on ball-handling skills, this guy is bound to leave up to his ample promise. (Doing it in Utah, do you think anyone will notice…?)

Who can tell what the Portland Trail Blazers will do? And how much Nicolas Batum (SLUC Nancy) will be a factor? BiE loved what he did in Euroleague after another up year in the NBA…

Southwest Division
First up here: The champs, Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks. It would be so easy to choose the Mavs to repeat – after all, this is the NBA, where dynasties and mini-dynasties happen. All the time – but wasn’t there something of a lightning-in-a-bottle effect last season? A perfect storm of events that included an imploding defending champion and an arrogant up-and-coming contender? Remarkably free of injury late for a squad bringing so many key veterans (Jason Kidd, Peja Stojakovic, etc.), the Mavericks weren’t exactly lucky per se but as with championship teams, the breaks went their way.

None of this is to detract from Nowitzki’s remarkable 2010-11 season, however. Nowitzki entered discussions of “top 20 NBA players of all-time” and “top European players ever” last year, and justifiably so as everyone discovered that he’d been doing this for years. And years and years in Dallas. Imagine the talk triggered by a repeat…

So can they repeat? Well, the best deal of the offseason may ultimately go down as the Lamar Odom-for-soda crackers trade – what a great shot in the arm for this roster, and one that will allow Dirk’s range to be further extended with Odom inside. Scary.

In the European interest is the current development of Rodrigue Beaubois, now ready to garner more minutes (last season marked his career high of 17.6 per game) with the departure of J.J. Barea. Much more than expected, say, three months ago, of the onus to repeat will be on Beaubois in 2011-12.

Despite his 10 years in the uniform, it will be strange to see Tony Parker donning San Antonio Spurs gear again. After a half-year’s worth of status as undisputed team leader and center of hype for Eurobasket’s silver-medaling Team France followed by Eurocuppers Asvel Villeurbanne, Parker becomes yet another piece in the puzzle with the perpetual playoff team. Again, though, BiE thinks the European warmup will do Parker and thus San Antonio much good in the early going. If he’s looking like an all-star point guard by late February, will management be so willing to trade him as has been so often rumored?

Then there’s Tiago Splitter, the former Euroleague force with Caja Laboral Baskonia. Splitter got in late to the European game this autumn, thereby playing just a handful of games with Valencia BC, though he looked impressive in his element of endless waves of the pick-and-roll. BiE found Splitter quite frustrating in NBA play in 2010-11, however, as he looked far too often to contentedly plant in the high post and set the occasional pick. Splitter could help form the nucleus for this team’s future with a modicum of constructive aggression.

What should have been could have been Pau Gasol’s new team before the whole Chris Paul-to-the Lakers deal was cruelly and pathetically subverted voided, the Houston Rockets, still have some Europeans to look for. Luis Scola is still around, fighting for minutes with three other power forwards on the current roster, while BiE fears Goran “The Dragon” Dragic may starve for minutes behind Kyle Lowery.

The best re-signing of the offseason: It’s gotta be the Memphis Grizzlies reupping Marc Gasol, doesn’t it? And in terms of the preseason workout ethic, Marc and brother Pau may have made the best decision of the lot in merely training with FC Barcelona: With little chance of injury and mostly basketball-skills conditioning going on, aren’t the Gasols primed to play?

As for Jeremy Pargo, formerly memorably of Maccabi Tel Aviv, his two-year extension signed in December is a good sign he’ll stick around despite a crowd at point guard in Memphis.

In the short term, perhaps the best that can be said for the New Orleans Hornets in 2011-12 is that Chris Kaman is in a contract year. (What? He’s German, right?) And we’re cheering for Marco Belinelli, too. On those one or two occasions we watch the Hornets.

Pacific Division
All the hype going into the season is on the newly christened “Lob City,” a.k.a. Los Angeles, Clippers. And why not? What’s more exciting sounding that YouTube fodder feeder of Chris Paul to Blake Griffin. On the other hand, can BiE throw a little sobriety into the party? Look, after these two and Chauncey Billups, the roster gets pretty damn sparse. Do they really have no natural centers to back up DeAndre Jordan? After Griffin at power forward, they’re going to Ryan Gomes and Brian Cook? And don’t the Clippers have a history of bizarre knee ailments? BiE’d be holding his breath between gasp-worthy dunks if he were a Clips fan. Otherwise, enjoy the party.

For the Phoenix Suns, the battle at center: Robin Lopez vs. Marcin Gortat!

Message from Sacramento Kings: Come back, Omri Casspi! All is forgiven!

Golden State Warriors’ starting center Andris Biedrins is looking to bounce back from a couple injury-riddled seasons with the club. He’ll definitely be depended on from among a very slim frontcourt … And who’s this? Jeremy Tyler? And listed on the depth chart behind Kwame Brown … how utterly appropriate.

Then there are the Los Angeles Lakers. As a Lakers fan, BiE can tell you that two years removed from a title already seems like decades … and the season hasn’t even begun yet. What is this existential angst hanging over this team going into 2011-12? Of course, it’s all about The Trade That Was Never Made. It’s impossible to determine what exactly was the worst bit about that disaster – even if you keep it Laker-related. Maybe it was losing Odom for nothing to the team that smoked ‘em in the playoffs last year. Maybe it was having a vision of a clear future of excellence nastily snatched away in hours. Or maybe, as BiE fears, it was the effect on Pau Gasol’s psyche.

As the Lakers crumbled steadily in the playoffs before collapsing in Dallas, Gasol was the epicenter of rumor and implied blame; many stories revolved around a nasty breakup with a girlfriend. Whatever the cause, it didn’t take B.F. Skinner to see that Gasol was in shape but distracted, blessed with stamina but not willpower.

After the non-trade was announced, he reportedly felt “devastated,” probably, reasons the suddenly suicide-level pessimistic L.A. backers (you’d be too if your fourth-best player was Josh McRoberts), erasing any good an all-tournament team showing in Eurobasket and proper training with Barcelona. And, as a Laker fan, BiE will just stop before the keyboard gets too soggy with tears.

The Official BallinEurope Fearless Predictions™ for the Western Conference playoffs, in order of seeding: Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves. Your Western Conference champions will be Oklahoma City, but they’ll lose to the Chicago Bulls in the finals.

To the games!

With few seconds on the clock, French combo guard Nando “Aladdin” de Colo is the man that Valencia fans want to see handling the ball. Check out the acrobatic fashion by which he knocked down a half-court shot against Bilbao Basket just two weeks ago (too bad it didn’t count).

With Christmas coming, though, the San Antonio Spurs’ 2009 second-round draft pick may not be the man you want to get some wishes from. Here is the best Merry Christmas-idea he came up with, a video of himself bossing a kid (probably a conniving family member in real life) disguised as Santa Claus. If you are brave enough to watch to 2:50, you’ll even get some juicy behind-the-scenes material…

(Soundtrack by Peggy Lee and Twisted Sister.)

Enrico Cellini is lifelong basketball fanatic and a long-time sportswriter with a focus on Italy and Spain. He was born among European hoops, was raised watching the NBA, and thinks choosing between American and European basketball is like choosing between one’s mother and father. You can follow him on Twitter or check out his Italian-language blog Hoop Addicted.

Here’s BallinEurope’s predominant working theory for at least the first two months of this season: The teams with more critical players who did a stint in Europe (or South America, for that matter) during the lockout will jump out to the best starts. And with a shortened season increasing the importance of every individual game, imagine what a, say, 17-5 could mean in the long-term – for a European equivalent of this model, how ‘bout that CSKA Moscow turbo boost?

So Kevin Garnett’s complaining that the preseason is too short … guys like Deron Williams have already been in real-game situations. Manu Ginobili is well rested but not “in basketball shape?” The Danilo Gallinaris, Mehmet Okurs and even the Gasol Brothers of the basketball world are set to go. More back-to-back games than ever before in NBA history? Hey, perhaps those two-a-days European coaches are so notorious for assigning will have readied these NBAers well more than the fortnight many of their colleagues are getting.

BiE would even argue that latecomers such as Tiago Splitter and late-peakers like Serge Ibaka are surely few steps ahead of the many American ballers who did not take Continental clubs up on even the most outrageous of offers. It is with this dictum in mind that this preview and Official Fearless Predictions™ were written. Today, the Eastern Conference.

Atlantic Division
First and foremost, of course, BallinEurope will be paying close attention to the New Jersey Nets, and not merely because of would-be Russian President Mikhail Prokhorov. (What? You don’t go to games to see the owners? Weren’t we supposed to learn that during the lockout?)

The future Brooklynites have a nice Euro-centric situation at point guard with D-Will (Beşiktaş) and Jordan Farmar (Maccabi Tel Aviv) warming up overseas. Depending on how one feels about Brook Lopez, European basketball fans have got to be loving last night’s acquisition of Mehmet Okur (Türk Telekom) for a song from the Utah Jazz – with the implied news that Enes Kanter is coming along over there – and former Team France/Pau Orthez big man Johan Petro may see some quality time in a Nets frontcourt with a huge Dwight Howard-sized hole.

Perpetual BiE attention-grabbers the Toronto Raptors are bringing disappointingly few European players into the 2011-12 season, though it’s not as though they didn’t try with Mickael Pietrus. Pietrus was almost a Raptor for a day before a knee injury voided a trade. Most recently, he’s been waived by the Phoenix Suns … how long before Pau Orthez puts in a bid…?

Meanwhile, the Raps still boast José Calderón, Andrea Bargnani and Linas Kleiza among the ranks … and, um, whoa. Is this really Toronto’s depth chart? Even at 66 games, this could be a long season. Or, as something called The A(bro)citation puts it, “I can’t believe that there is a question as to who the worst team in the NBA will be in 2011-12. I don’t even care about records. This team will NOT fill seats, make it on SportsCenter, or even provide the ladies with some eye candy. Rough times in Toronto right now.”

As for the New York Knicks, BiE’ll get over the disappointment of neither Amare Stoudamire nor Carmelo Anthony coming overseas to play this fall long enough to compliment the interesting-looking starting five – Amare, Melo, Tyson Chandler, Landry Fields and Toney Douglas – while goggling at the bottom of the roster. Is Jarred Jeffries really the top frontcourt option off the bench? Could the difference-makers for New York be Mike Bibby and Baron Davis? Can four starters actually play 48 minutes in every game? Scary. For Knicks fans.

For the Boston Celtics, it’s been one step backward after another since acquiring the “Big Three.” BiE’s still puzzling over the bizarre late-season move which had Nenad Krstic coming to Beantown for Kendrick Perkins, a human spark plug during the Celtics’ mini-run in the ‘00s … only to see Krstic never fit in and sign with the tough Red Army. For whom he’s doing some serious damage.

More bothersome for the Cs are KG’s above-cited comments. Garnett noted that the short preseason does no good for team chemistry; clearly he’s thinking specifically of his own team here. Who else thinks Danny Ainge’s half-baked dealing isn’t finished yet?

Euro-centrically speaking, the Celtics have signed Sasha Pavlovic, but despite Boston’s lack of true no. 3s behind Paul Pierce, the Serb may not even stick. Assesses Jessica Camarato of CSN New England: “Pavlovic flashed some outside-shooting ability earlier in his career, but he’s unlikely to do much in Boston even if he makes the team.”

In general, BiE likes the workman-filled Philadelphia 76ers roster. Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand lead a defense-minded, intangibles-first squad that could go far in a weak Atlantic Division. While the Sixers have essentially kept the 2010-11 final roster intact, word has it that Iguodala has been the subject of trade rumors; really? Meanwhile, look out for seven-foot draft pick Nikola Vucevic out of USC to steal away the starting role from Spencer Hawes; BiE believes that Vucevic is primed for a long and successful NBA career and it may just begin early.

Central Division
BiE’s NBA team to watch in 2011-12: The Chicago Bulls. Love the nice Eurobasket 2011 representation with Joakim Noah (Team France), Omer Asik (Team Turkey) and Luol Deng (Team Britain and truly one of the tournament’s studs in his short stint). Love the return of Brian “One of Us” Scalabrine after his ego-boosting term with Bennetton Treviso. Love Derrick Rose; how could you not? Love coach Tom Thibodeau and his staff’s excellent defensive sets which offensive strategy that allows for each player’s strengths to be accentuated. Love the way these guys match up with the Miami Heat. Hell, BiE even loves the Carlos Boozer extension well enough.

From Detroit Pistons land, the biggest Euro-centric news is all about Jonas Jerebko. Finally coming back to the Pistons after spending all of 2010-11 laid up, the Swede is already a fan favorite, may have earned the starting power forward job by opening day and will seemingly sign an extension with the club. O, and he’s guaranteed that Detroit will make the playoffs. Okay, BiE buys that.

The good news for the ClevelanCled Cavaliers: Omri Casspi (Maccabi Tel Aviv, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalmost) is aboard. The bad news: Well, just about everything else is bad news.

What? No Europeans on the Indiana Pacers? Former University of New Mexico stud Danny Granger needs to be traded soon so that BiE has absolutely no reason to pay attention to these guys…

Brandon Jennings (yeah, BiE still has fond memories) hopes to reclaim that “Fear the Deer” feeling with his nicely international-flavored Milwaukee Bucks in 2011-12. Ersan Ilyasova (Anadolu Efes) has looked generally decent in preseason play and in tandem with Drew Gooden comprises a nice 1-2 combination at power forward, especially in comparison with the East. New acquisition Beno Udrih backs up Jennings and has seen a ton of time – 32.2 minutes per game through five – in the preseason, perhaps indicating a respectable role with the team.

Southeast Division
As a follower of European ball, you gotta dig the Orlando Magic because they keep Hedo Turkoglu employed. What would the NBA preseason be without the annual “How much does Hedo have left in the tank?” questions?

Meanwhile, Magic fans worry about 1) if Dwight Howard will depart, 2) when Dwight Howard will depart, and 3) how disgruntled he’ll be in the meantime. If the Magic get off to a 2-8 start, well, Orlando backers will be welcoming Pau Gasol to town before February.

The mix the Atlanta Hawks has concocted is crazy enough that it just might work. European ball is well represented with Zaza Pachulia, Vladimir Radmanovic and Pape Sy. Sy may actually play this season for the Hawks. Or maybe, judging by the extremely few minutes he’s getting in December, not.

Re: What BiE wrote above about the Magic and Hedo? Ditto and even more so for the Charlotte Bobcats and Boris Diaw (JSA Bordeaux).

The Washington Wizards look so exciting and interesting that BiE’s nearly giddy enough to back Jan Vesely as a dark-horse NBA Rookie of the Year candidate. “Nearly,” BiE said, as it seems breaking into the DC starting lineup ahead of Rashard Lewis ain’t gonna happen. Nevertheless, local media is loving the Flying Czech.

The Wiz also boasts a pair of Team France guys in Kevin Seraphin (Caja Laboral Baskonia) and Ronny Turiaf (Asvel Villeurbanne). Seraphin is still looking to break out after getting limited playing time in 2010-11; hopefully for him, his decent production for Caja Laboral (10.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, about 20 minutes per ACB game; 8.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 19.25 mpg in Euroleague play) will inure him to the Washington coaches a bit more.

Turiaf spent much of his lockout time sorting out insurance issues and such, but did some respectable work for Tony Parker’s French team; BiE opines he’ll be viable bench support on this playoff team.

So the whole Miami Heat-as-Evil Empire thing is old hat, huh? Not for BallinEurope! This Euro-free team doesn’t even have Zydrunas Ilgauskas any more, so what’s the point? BiE may even have to start hating on former fave Shane Battier…

The Official BallinEurope Fearless Predictions™ then, have the following in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in order of seed: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, New Jersey Nets, Detroit Pistons. And your 2011-12 NBA Eastern Conference champion is … the Chicago Bulls! (That’s right, BiE said it.)

Next: The Western Conference, including (sigh) Pau and those Los Angeles Lakers.

In Madrid, Real went on a 13-2 run early to take a 19-8 lead in the first quarter and never looked back on the way to an 83-61 victory over Manresa (now 5-7 and tied for 11th place). Red-hot Nikola Mirotic contributed his Liga Endesa season high with 20 points in just 23 minutes of play.

Meanwhile, Barcelona went to Basque Country only to come away with just their third loss of 2011-12. In what the Liga Endesa’s official website is calling “Baskonia’s best game this season,” Caja Laboral held the haggard-looking Barca to just eight points in the first quarter and Juan Carlos Navarro scoreless for the game: The first time the latter has happened since November 2008.

In fact, Navarro was pulled from the game in the 12th minute. In more bad news for Blaugrana backers, coach Xavi Pascual told media that La Bomba had been suffering from plantar fasciitis problems and that Pascual had considered sitting him out before the game.

Milko Bjelica led the way in Baskonia’s 71-60 win, putting in 17 points on 8-of-11 overall shooting along with four rebounds.

In closing out the calendar year, Barcelona hosts Manresa while Madrid plays at FIATC Mutua Joventut (4-8, tied for 13th) on December 28th and 29th, respectively. The real date to mark on the calendar, however, is January 4th when the league leaders face off in Madrid. Could Barcelona find itself in a rare no. 2 position to start 2012?