Last-second choices for the NIKEiD Fantasy Challenge

My transfers were already set Tuesday afternoon but when I came home on the evening, I read that Juan Carlos Navarro will probably miss the next game. So I had to change those nice picks I’d  already made.

OUT: Nikola Pekovic (Panathinaikos), Mirsad Turkcan (Fenerbahce) and Giorgios Printezis (Olympiacos).

IN: Lior Eliyahu (Maccabi), David Andersen (FC Barcelona) and Viktor Khryapa (CSKA Moscow).

The thing is that two guys, Nikola Pekovic and Navarro, must be moved out by any means  because of injuries. So who to take as a third, Mirsad Turkcan or Giorgios Printezis, or even somebody completely different? With the two first guys out, I could easily bring in my two choices, David Andersen and Victor Khryapa. Both are currently improving their playing level and are still not too expensive. This brings me to a situation where I have 34 credits left and still one trade to make.

By selling Turkcan like I wanted to, I have to many credits. On the other hand, none of the other inside players is a selling option in my opinion, as both Edu Hernandez-Sonseca and Tiago Splitter should come up with big numbers next game. So I have to check on the forward position and forget about bringing Lior Eliyahu to my team.

So my choice goes to David Logan, who should bring good stats in the game against Zalgiris. So I really think that this is the deal I need in order to overcome my poor performance from last week and find my way back to where I belong.

Euroleague Power Rankings (Week 7)

The last game day before Christmas is just ahead, so let’s check which are teams are hot and which are not at the moment.

1. CSKA Moscow (6-1) (+1)

It was just a short-term downgrade to second place for CSKA Moscow. An emphatic win against Panionios and a hard-fought victory over Unics Kazan helped them to recover the first place in our unique Power Rankings.

2. Montepaschi Siena (6-1) (-1)

Siena had a little more trouble than expected in beating the Lithuanians from Zalgiris Kaunas. On the other hand, in the domestic league, the team continues to win and confirms their current good situation.

3. Regal FC Barcelona (6-1) (+1)

The big win of the week comes from FC Barcelona and their victory in the OAKA. This puts them in third place on the Euroleague Power Rankings and shows the nice job done by the coaching staff to build such a strong team.

4. TAU Ceramica (5-2) (+2)

The offensive powerhouse from Vitoria comes off another destroying win in the Euroleague. And they will play against ALBA Berlin this week in a rematch of Igor Rakocevic’s 6-for-6 three-point effort.

5. Unicaja Malaga (5-2) (+2)

Unicaja is currently in the upstream, so it’s time for them to slow down to remain in their classical up-and-down moves. The big win at home against the Greek Olympiacos team with a reduced team gives them the necessary boost to remain among the top contenders for the Top 16.

6. Olympiacos (5-2) (-3)

Olympiacos is currently a little bit off, as the team has not yet identified the leader who takes over games in the final minutes, which ultimately caused their defeat in Malaga. Josh Childress is doing the job, but he is not the “Messiah” awaited by the Reds.

7. Panathinaikos (5-2) (-2)

Panathinaikos is a bit in the same situation as Olympiacos and even lost at home. The game against FC Barcelona will remain in the minds of fans and players, but the next matchup against SLUC Nancy should get them back on track.

8. Cibona Zagreb (5-2) (+1)

The weeks continue and Cibona is still in the Top 10 in our rankings. The Croats are playing an excellent season so far, building on some local talent with surprisingly strong US players: A mix that works very well and qualifies them for the Top 16.

9. DKV Joventut (5-2) (+2)

Ricky is back, and so is DKV Joventut. It’s not quite that easy, but the Badalona team is currently getting better. The case of Pops Mensah-Bonsu is definitely sealed, and Eduardo Hernandez-Sonseca is working in the paint. With Ricky improving every game now, the Top 16 will be very interesting.

10. Lottomatica Roma (5-2) (-2)

Coach Repesa is gone, and so goes the five-game winning streak. It’s not that simple, but the team does need to find itself again at this moment. Even if Brandon Jennings gains in minutes, the goal is to win games and not to develop the scoring skills of a high school kid.

11. Real Madrid (4-3) (+3)

A tough win at home against Partizan, and Real Madrid moves up in the rankings again. Coach Joan Plaza’s is probably the most discussed position right now in the Euroleague, but with every win, his seat remains in place. By the way, Real will play in Moscow this week and a loss is very probable.

12. Maccabi Tel Aviv (4-3) (+1)

Maccabi wins on the road but loses in the domestic league; what a strange situation. However, since Lior Eliyahu has woken up in the Euroleague, the team seems to comfort their Top16 spot and should continue their presence for another few games.

13. Efes Pilsen (3-4) (+2)

After being ranked pretty high at the beginning of the season, the Turkish Brewers have fallen down regularly in our Rankings but seem to find their way back up right now. After beating the red-hot AJ Milano team at home, things look a little bit better right now.

14. Partizan Belgrade (3-4) (-4)

Partizan needs to win its games at home and maybe take one or the other win on the road. This week, they nearly did, losing by only 1 in Madrid. However, they remain strong and should be able to reach the Top 16 again this season.

15. Fenerbahce Ülker (3-4) (+1)

Fenerbahce Ülker was on the way to win in Berlin but without any obvious reason completely struggled in the second half and gave ALBA Berlin a highly important win. They showed no problems in the domestic league in beating the small team Antalya and they have a crucial game at home against Joventut this week.

16. ALBA Berlin (3-4) (+4)

ALBA Berlin remains unbeaten in O2 World and will try to continue the win streak against TAU this week. However, a surprising loss on the road in the Bundesliga was not in their favor, and the still long list of injuries is a problem for Luka Pavicevic.

17. AJ Milano (2-5) (-5)

A big move up and big move down; this is how to look at AJ Milano’s fortunes last week. The team had an impressive win at home against CSKA which boosted their stock. However, it wasn’t enough to continue their streak and lost in Istanbul. Everything remains possible for the team, though, as they host Partizan this week.

18. Panionios (3-4) (-1)

The Greeks took a severe loss in Moscow, like nearly every team in the Euroleague. Additionally, they lost by 16 against Olympiacos in the Greek league, like nearly every team in the A1. So not a lot of changes for Panionios right now.

19. Asseco Prokom (2-5) (-1)

Prokom did the job in Nancy with the loss and not giving back the lead taken in the first meeting. The Polish team needs to win a few more in order to qualify for the next round and are currently in the best position for 4th place in their (poor) group.

20. Air Avellino (2-5) (-1)

Air Avellino lost nearly all of their chances to qualify for the Top 16 with the home defeat against Maccabi. It was a great experience for the small Italian team to participate to the Euroleague but the dream is coming to an end.

21. SLUC Nancy (2-5) (+1)

Nancy had a small chance and took it. By beating Asseco Prokom behind an astonishing effort from Cyril Julian, the French team needs to win on the road now in order to have a last qualifying chance for the Top 16.

22. Union Olimpija (1-6) (-1)

Nothing is really working well right now for the Slovenians. Coaches come and go, injuries and defeats mark a season to forget in the Euroleague. The management is probably already thinking about next year and seeking improvements in order to become competitive again.

23. Zalgiris Kaunas (0-7) (+1)

Yes, Zalgiris only lost by seven, so it was enough for me to take them out of last place. And when reading the forums, I even hear voices claiming that the Lithuanians still have a chance to reach the Top 16 by beating SLUC and Asseco. Yes, that sounds possible.

24. Le Mans (0-7) (-1)

Should I really waste any time writing about the biggest disaster of the year? Starting with a team names that opened some eyes but also a rookie coach, Le Mans should probably refocus on their traditions of talented young locals and experienced coaches. At least the fans would not be as disappointed.

Who profits from all the injuries?

This week, a lot of bad news happened and some fantasy owners have to some major changes in the fantasy teams. Sani Becirovic was injured and as one of the major contributors, lots of managers need to go for some changes. And as one of the hottest players of the moment in the SG/SF position was also injured  (according to some internet rumors) — I’m speaking about Charles Smith here — it will be tough to go for a good move on this position.

My problem of the week is the following, though. I wanted to get rid of two of my players at the SG and SF positions and replace them by Becirovic and Smith. Now both are injured so I’m asking myself what to do. The first player I wanted to sell is Immanuel McElroy from ALBA Berlin, but with Julius Jenkins still out and no Becirovic in Rome, Imac may come up with a good game so he’ll stay on the team. The second guy to move was Emir Preldzic. He’s on the decline right now, so he’s out. With Becirovic injured, I see another player stepping up for Roma this week, and that’s Rodrigo de la Fuente. As Allan Ray may miss the game, too, the Spanish veteran should see a lot of minutes and could come up with some interesting stats.

In order to improve my team even more, I chose then to finally trade Sergio Llull away. The Spanish youngster had a great run, but now it’s time to cash in and get a real big-time guard rotation. In order to do so, I needed to get a bit more credits so Felipe Reyes left the boat. Reyes was replaced by last week’s MVP Edu Hernandez-Sonseca, who should bring solid ranking points against Olimpija and should also gain in value. So I have enough credits to bring Lynn Greer to my team. So, recapping my moves:

OUT: Emir Preldzic (Fenerbahce), Felipe Reyes (Real Madrid) and Sergio Llull (Real Madrid).

IN: Lynn Greer (Olympiacos), Rodrigo de la Fuente (Lottomatica) and Edu Hernandez-Sonseca (Joventut).

Yarone’s Weekend Joints - Part II

Part II of the Weekend Joints breathes air before the weekend comes to an end.

Three-ball diversity

Seems like Olimpija finally found the path to the W. In their win over Alba, the Slovenians finished 11-of-24 from close range and 13-of-33 behind the arc. The Germans had big problems deciding who to stop first, as no fewer than seven different Olimpija players stepped outside the arc to hit shots. On an average night, a team will have three or four players with at least one three-pointer: Seven is a big number in that category. Power forward Miha Zupan was steaming hot at 4-of-7 from that distance, some of those hits were made in ways the greater shooters don’t hit so often. Keep in mind that in the entire previous season, Zupan made only eight three-pointers and that in the first four games of the season he had gone 0-of-6 from the arc to realize what kind of a night Olimpija needed to get their debut win.

New kid on the court

In early August at the U18 Division B European Championship, Mirza Sarajlija led Slovenia back to where they belong by winning the lower-division title. Sarajlija was projected him as a prospect, and he earned his place in the all-tournament team, but it didn’t seem likely the 17-year-old guard would influence a Euroleague game less than four months later. The 1991-born talent already showed his skill set in several Adriatic League games and on Thursday played his first-ever Euroleague game, igniting Hala Tivoli right away. He scored no less than 13 points with three downtown rocks in addition to three rebounds, two steals and an understandable five turnovers. Very, very few players have such a Euroleague debut on their resume as a teen. Keep an eye on Sarajlija…

Rarity in Pionir

The fact that Partizan came close — sorry, very, very close — to beating CSKA is surprising, but nothing’s shocking. After all, in the previous season, the Russian giants lost at Olimpija in a close game, 74-72, on a buzzer-beating shot by Marko Milic. Partizan is a much better team than Olimpija of last season, and playing in Pionir isn’t easy for anyone, so those things happen. The real shocking episode from that night in Pionir was that CSKA was out-rebounded, 45-29. Even if you take out the last four offensive rebounds of Partizan in the final seconds (actually, the fact Partizan took four offensive rebounds in the deciding last play says it all) you still get a big 12 rebound gap. The rarity is that the Euroleague champs are almost never out-rebounded by that many. In most games they will grab more, sometimes many more, rebounds than their opponent. When they do lose that battle, the deficit will be no more than minus-five (as it was that night in Ljubljana). Other than a few occasions, most of them coming in games which CSKA has it decided early and allows the other side to come back, such a gap rarely happens.

69 reasons to visit Badalona

No details here. Clear and simple. In the second and third quarters, Joventut Badalona combined for no fewer than 69 points. God damn it.

New (temporary) king

Ksistof Lavrinovic of Montepaschi scored an index rating of 25 this week against SLUC Nancy and it seemed like the easiest 25 ever. Lavrinovic reached that on a night in which he was only 2-of-9 from the field and missed all four attempts from distance (the difference between a missed and a made shot is four index points). The fact he did this coming off the bench and in less than 20 minutes is not surprising if you follow his performance closely. This season, he took over one of the most interesting stat categories in the Euroleague. He tops the “All-Time Index Rating per Minute” category with a great 0.78 point per minute. Right behind him is Maceo Baston at 0.72 and, to understand how big a 0.06-point difference is in this ranking, just have a look and note that the distance between second place and 20th place is 0.1. The active Euroleague player closest to Ksistof is Mirsad Turkcan with 0.65, a long way behind. The only asterisk the twin carries is the fact that he’s played only 27 Euroleague games so far. Mark your calendars to check on Ksistof when he reaches 40 and 60 games to see where he stands.

It DOES get worse than that

Part of the reason Zalgiris leads the ranking of turnovers per game is the fact they play long stretches, and sometimes full games, with two young point guards. This week they got back their original signing for the point guard position – the American Willie Dean III who’s a little more experienced. Considering his performance against Barcelona, it’s likely Zalgiris would have done a better job without him that night. Dean came back from an injury and missed all of his six shot attempts to win the unofficial PVM award of Week 5 with an index rating of -8. The more disturbing part is that this isn’t even Dean’s worst performance in his very short Euroleague career, as on Week 1 he wrote an index of…-9.

Another new kid on the court

Sarajlija wasn’t the only kiddo to shine this week. Partizan usually give the stage to Serb talents, but Jan Vesely is a Czech big guy who’s certainly justifying the exception. When will he turn to a name everybody knows is a matter of time. For now he’s a 1991 born big guy who stops only after 210 centimeters and loaded with talent. Before stepping on the same court with Savrasenko, Smodis, Lorbek and Morris he played only two Euroleague games, and in both it was for short minutes in which he did pretty much nothing but adjusting. Against CSKA only Milenko Tepic played more than his 25:48 minutes. He still didn’t express his offensive skills, and finished with just a single point and three losses, but his three offensive boards and the six on the other side of court, in addition to effective defense in the paint, made him one of the nicest surprises this week.

Turkish muse

Quinton Hosley made his break last season while playing for a mid-size club in Turkey by the name Karsiyaka. He averaged 22.9 ppg and 11.6 rpg to become one of the hottest items on the market this summer. Eventually he landed in Madrid, where he had some ups and downs so far, but once back in Turkey, for a Euroleague game @Efes, Hosley was once again on fire. He set individual season highs with 24 points and a 23 index rating, missed only two shots in 11 attempts and the most impressive part was scoring three times from distance after missing all five attempts in the four previous weeks.

Under 70

Fifth week in a row the big team of Kaunas fail to reach the 70 points barrier, and their season high remains on 67. This week they stopped on 60 and marked another sad chapter in their impressive history book. Since season started, in five games, which roughly results 20 quarters, Zalgiris climbed to 20 points or more in only three of them.

Once in…Edu

Eduardo Hernandez-Sonseca came off Joventut’s bench to win the MVP of Week 5 with a shocking index rating of 38. That performance threw me back to the Top16 of the 2001/02 season. Back then Hernandez-Sonseca was a 19 year old prospect on the bench of Real Madrid. A seven footer who can score from close and long range, rebound and run the floor and could become something very interesting one day. Maybe. Well, Edu didn’t play much that season, as expected, and even when he did, showed only flashes of skills here and there. Until Real had a field trip to Perm to face Ural Great on Week 4 of the Top16 back in 27^th of March 2002. Both teams already had no chance to qualify on, the Spanish team arrived with only eight players on the roster due to injuries and whatever, so the kid got a chance to play. The final score was 104-113 to Real, in a game some claimed was fixed to be an “Over”, but for EHS it didn’t matter. He reached 28 points, in 10/14 from the field, 8/8 from the line, six rebounds and four blocks on the sure path to 36 index rating night. The following season he got a bigger role on Real’s roster but showed great inconsistency ranging from nights of 13+12 vs. CSKA to 2 points, 0 rebounds and 2 turnovers against ASVEL. From then till today he never came even half way to what he wrote down on Thursday night in international competitions, unless you demand to count an index of 30 against Guilford Heat last season.

No need to foul

Unicaja managed to grab a key win in Tel Aviv despite missing about half of their roster, which hurt their usual wide rotation, but didn’t effect their aggressive defense. Nevertheless Maccabi drew only 13 fouls that game. No player drew more than three. Go over 23 other Euroleague teams this week and you won’t find another sample like that. That’s not even the first time it happens to Israeli powerhouse this season. In the last three weeks Maccabi didn’t draw more than 18 fouls in any of the games. The lack of a slasher AND a post-up player limits the options of the current Maccabi roster, and helps their opponents to play tough and avoid fouls.

Will the real Rawle Marshall please stand up?

Despite the title it has nothing to do with any fist-fight. This is pure basketball talk. In the off-season Rawle Marshall was a hot name in the market. Lots of teams were interested in the US forward who played great for Hemofarm the past season, but most of them had doubts if he’s a very good Euroleague player or “just” a stud for a Eurocup team. Five games inside his debut season in the Euroleague and still no clear answer. So far he stands on two great performances, two he would prefer not to mention and an average one. In the two bad games and the average one he hit only nine shots in 37 attempts. In the game @Unicaja he excelled with amazing 7/10 from long distance, but stood on 1/6 inside the arc. Against Olympiacos he dished four assists, in the other four games combined only half of that. @Le Mans made four turnovers, in the other four combined just two. It goes way beyond stats, as Marshall at times seems like the real deal with his athleticism, size and skills, but then looks pretty far from someone you can put the ball in his hands and rest peacefully. It’s the most reasonable thing for someone who witnessed European Basketball for the first time only last year, and has no more than five Euroleague games in his resume, but from now on, as adjustment time is over, Marshall shall be examined under closer look.

History in Sopot

A long streak came to an end on Wednesday night in Sopot. A historical incident took place on the Polish court. The info is disclosed in front of you: Sarunas Jasikevicius finished 13:32 minutes with 0/5 from the field, no fouls drawn and three turnovers to reach a terrible -8 index rating, but worst of all 0 points. In eight Euroleague seasons Saras had a few rare games in which he didn’t score a field goal. Even in his two huge seasons with Maccabi he had a game like that in each season. Along the way there were some games with just a single bucket, and very few games with a negative index rating, but never ever, in all his 140 Euroleague performances, he finished a game with no points as in Sopot. There’s probably some symbolism in the fact that Saras will, most probably, start the new streak next week when he plays in his…home town – Kaunas.

Last-second choices for the NIKEiD Fantasy Challenge

This week looked like a very tough challenge to me as I did not expect to trade away my top performer at the moment: Pops Mensah-Bonsu. But a shoulder injury stopped the British national team player, and so I had to give him away. But for his value, I could buy two “certain” gainers instead, so the deal looks not too bad. But first things first.

My first move was to check my team with the updated Euroleague fantasy tool at HoopsStats.com. Not too much to change, though, except a few minor errors on my team. But it helped my to set up my strategy for this week. Next to the obvious trade of Mensah-Bonsu, it gave me the idea to go for a two maximum winners trade by acquiring Bouroussis and Begic for Mensah-Bonsu’s value approximately.

The other player that I wanted to give away was Carlos Jimenez. As much as I like him on the court, he could not stand his recent nice statistical efforts and so he goes out after only week of action. Together with the now reduced minutes of Will McDonald at TAU, I had enough cash to go big at the forward position. So I brought in Josh Childress. who I think should be a very regular contributor at a 20+ ranking points level. So here are the moves I made on my team this week.

OUT: Carlos Jimenez (Unicaja Malaga), Pops Mensah-Bonsu (DKV Joventut) and Will McDonald (TAU Ceramica) - 185.3 credits

IN: Josh Childress (Olympiacos), Mirza Begic (Union Olimpija) and Ioannis Bouroussis (Olympiacos) - 176.35 credits

Who are the other players to sign?

Point Guards: If your goal is to gain credits and you don’t own Sergio Llull on your team, take a look at Damir Kaan (Fenerbahce - 30.3 credits). The veteran only needs a 5.7 ranking to gain the maximum value and the upcoming game against DKV Joventut looks like a good opportunity for some backcourt scoring.

Daniel Ewing (Prokom Sopot - 68.4 credits) looks like a nice pick this week, too, and Prokom will play against Zalgiris and its heavily reduced backcourt.

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards: With the return of Julius Jenkins (ALBA Berlin - 50.2 credits), it may be interesting to take a look at the ALBA Berlin guard. His poor opening game reduced his price nicely so he may be a bargain at the moment, as he can be regular 20+ guy like he showed last week; at least he should be a nice investment for the future.

If you have a bigger wallet, Romain Sato (Montepaschi Siena - 77 credits) looks right now like a very regular contributor at a fair value. If you need to increase your buying volume, Saso Ozbolt (Union Olimpija - 33.2 credits) may be the right choice for you, as he only needs 2.9 ranking points to remain idle; compared to his current average of 11 ranking points, he should be able to give you a nice return.

Power Forwards and Centers: Besides the usual suspects Mirza Begic and Ioannis Bouroussis (see above), Pat Burke (Asseco Prokom - 33.2 credits) may be an interesting choice for the discount seekers. Zalgiris’ frontcourt is not known for being the toughest in terms of defense, so Pat can come up with some of his trademark moves or three point shots.

Another pick if you want to fill your roster but have no money left is of course Enes Kanter (Fenerbahce - 9.2 credits), as the 16-year-old kid will increase his value even without playing.

Let’s make some crazy bets!

As you can see above, I made some very safe choices this week. But isn’t this game about winning and going for some crazy bets? Currently, as I am writing, I’m not so sure about bringing Josh Childress in at 83.6 credits. As I really believe in one of my other choices described above — I’m talking about Julius Jenkins — I may change my trades and bring in the ALBA guard instead of the former Hawk and save about 30 credits for next week’s trades. Maybe that’s not too bad an idea, as both Begic and Bouroussis probably won’t stay on my team forever and having additional buying power makes the future look brighter. Yes, I changed my mind to bring in Jenkins (by the way, who should stop him at TAU Ceramica, Rakocevic?). So here we go:

OUT: Carlos Jimenez (Unicaja Malaga), Pops Mensah-Bonsu (DKV Joventut) and Will McDonald (TAU Ceramica) - 185.3 credits

IN: Julius Jenkins (ALBA Berlin), Mirza Begic (Union Olimpija) and Ioannis Bouroussis (Olympiacos) - 142.95 credits (42.67 credits in reserve)

Eduardo Hernandez-Sonseca (DKV Joventut - 39.4 credits) could be the big winner of the Pops Mensah-Bonsu mess. Not only because both have hyphenated names, but Hernandez-Sonseca came up with 22 ranking points this weekend in the ACB and should be able to go for a similar score against Fenerbahce at home.