In the land of Nowitzki, another crazy Bundesliga tournament will be finished tonight as Brose Baskets Bamberg hosts Alba Berlin in the decisive game five for the BBL title and a Euroleague bid for 2011-12.

The back-and-forth series saw game four won handily by Alba Berlin, 87-67, after a shaky first quarter. Derrick Allen led the way for Berlin with 18 points in knotting up the series at 2-2. Game five is available for watching live online via the German-language Sport 1 YouTube channel. Tipoff is set for 8.30pm CET (2.30pm EST).

In Italy, Euroleague third-placers Montepaschi Siena go for the five-peat tonight against Bennet Cantu, having amassed a three-games-to-one advantage in the best-of-seven series.

After suffering an upset in game three, MPS jumped out to a 42-28 halftime lead and held on for the 69-65 in last night’s game four. Bo McCalebb showed no signs of the nagging foot injury that’s been bothersome for much of 2011, going for 21 points and four assists in 28 minutes of court time.

Cantu indeed has their work cut out for them as, in racking up a 48-10 overall record in 2010-11, Montepaschi has lost back-to-back games in any competition just once this season – and that was back in January, in games to Efes Pilsen Istanbul and Real Madrid.

The 2011 Eurobasket Women tournament tips off this afternoon in Poland, with 16 teams in running for the title of top national squad in Europe. Typical of bookmakers, the Sporting Bet website lists four teams as clear favorites in the tournament: Russia (which gets “outright winner” odds of 7/5), defending champs France (41/20), Spain (27/10) and Belarus (11/1).

As for an Official BallinEurope Fearless Prediction™, BiE’s gonna go with Spain. This side brings back two veterans from Team España’s bronze-winning Eurobasket 2009 campaign – Anna Cruz and Laura Nicholls – and includes five players from Euroleague Women champions Halcon Avenida in Silvia Dominguez, Marta Xargay, Anna Montanana, Sancho Lyttle and BiE fave Alba Torrens. (BallinEurope is a big believer in including club teammates on national teams.) In addition, the señoras will start in group play against relatively unheralded German, Polish and Montenegrin squads.

You can watch all the games throughout the Eurobasket Women tournament on FIBA TV for a single price of €11; click here for the landing page.

• To no one’s surprise, Spanish superpowers FC Barcelona and Real Madrid indeed met in the Copa del Rey final with La Blaugrana overcoming their rivals playing on their home court, 68-60. Check out, as the league’s official website, says a collection of clips including “Alley oops terribles de [Boniface] N’Dong y [Fran] Vázquez, mate furioso de Clay Tucker, D’Or Fischer que pone el candado a su aro … ¡Mucha diversión en la Final!”

Slightly surprising, especially given the number of household names on Barça, was Alan Anderson’s unstoppable performance: The former Charlotte Bobcat/Cibona Zagreb/Maccabi Tel Aviv swingman topped his 17-point showing against Caja Laboral Baskonia with a huge 19 against Real … and tournament MVP honors.

• Anything less surprising than the Spanish matchup? Sure! There’s always the anti-climactic Lithuanian Cup final, certain to feature Žalgiris Kaunas and Lietuvos Rytas: After all, all five editions of the LKF Cup have pitted the two Euroleague squads against one another. This year, it was Žalgiris 80, L.Rytas 69, with Travis Watson pacing the winners with 16 points.

• At least the Türkiye Kupasi typically produces an interesting finals matchup: Despite the perpetual dominance of TBL ball by the two big Euroleague sides, Efes Pilsen and Fenerbahçe Ülker haven’t met for the Cup championship game since 2006; they’ve only clashed in the final game of this tournament four times since its inception in 1967.

This time around, the surprise entry was Beşiktaş Cola Turka, who managed to upend Efes Pilsen in round one and survive Trabzonspor in the second to earn the right to face off against traditional superpower Fenerbahçe.

Still without Allen Iverson, the Eagles got monster games from Mire Chatman (22 points on 9-of-16 overall shooting) and A.J. Ogilvy. The Australian went for 24 points, including an incredible 16-of-18 on free throws; the other 11 Beşiktaş players combined for exactly 0-for-1 from the ‘stripe.

Fenerbahçe proved to have too much for the upstarts, however, posting an 81-72 win for the team’s third ‘Cup and second consecutive.

The bad news for Fenerbahçe, of course, is that the war may have been lost in this possibly pyrrhic victory: Mirsad Turkcan suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter that will likely end his 2010-11 season and could even keep him out of Eurobasket 2011.

Anyway, so here’s a crushing jam by Tarance Kinsey from the game.

And the party thereafter.

Incidentally, here’s a featurette on Beşiktaş’ new addition, Marcelus Kemp, with highlights from The Eagles’ 90-88 squeaker over Trabzonspor in the Kupasi quarterfinals. All Beşiktaş’ import did in his second game was go for 19 points and three assists to push the Black-and-White into the final match.

In the final, Kemp showed a bit more evidence of rust, managing just 4-of-13 overall shooting and committing five fouls in 27½ minutes of court time; he’s managing just a 33% overall success rate in three games thus far.

In the first-ever Polish Cup, meanwhile, Polpharma emerged as champions in beating Eurocup side Anwil Wloclawek, 75-67; this just one day after a buzzer-beating win over Euroleaguers Asseco Prokom. Not too much in the way of highlights has been posted to YouTube, but we do have the view from a courtside seat (over 20 minutes of it!) at the Prokom game.

And the post-game celebration…

Finally, to Italy. Stop BiE if you’ve heard this one before: The Coppa Italia in 2011 was once again a race for second place; this year, the metaphorical silver went to Bennet Cantù, who lost to good ol’ Montepaschi Siena in the finals, 79-72. It’s the third-straight Coppa for MPS and the second consecutive championship game win over Cantù; Cantù has thrice finished runner-up in the tournament.

“[ACB] aside,” opines Onan, “in Turkish basketball, we have long surpassed important European domestic leagues, including the Italian and Greek leagues. In these countries, only one or two teams are of a high quality and at a high level. We, on the other hand, have at least six or seven clubs that have invested greatly in basketball and have many star players.”

(For the record, the top seven teams in the TBL standings currently are Euroleague’s Fenerbahçe and Efes Pilsen Istanbul; Eurocup teams Banvit BK, Galatasaray Cafe Crown and Beşiktaş Cola Turka; Eurochallenge contenders Pinar Karsiyaka; and Olin Edirne.)

Onan goes on to state that “I believe Turkish basketball has advanced to a higher grade. We are getting more successful results both from our national team and our domestic teams. Efes Pilsen and Fenerbahçe Ülker must push for [Euroleague quarterfinals]. I believe in the coming years, both Efes and we will be making it to the final four on a regular basis.”

As for the upcoming Eurobasket 2011 tournament, “The championship will not be easy at all. If we can advance to the second round, we will face powerful rivals from the other groups. But we are the second biggest in the world, after all. … If we can manage to make it to top eight in Lithuania, we will become a big contender for the title because we will have played the most difficult games,” i.e. the Group A round-robin matches against the likes of hosts Lithuania, Spain, Poland and Great Britain.

The entire interview — and it’s impressively extensive — may be read here.

Group E
Panathinakos
Caja Laboral Baskonia
Unicaja Malaga
Lietuvos Rytas

Group F
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Union Olimpija
FC Barcelona
Lottomatica Roma

Group G
Montepaschi Siena
Real Madrid
Efes Pilsen Istanbul
Partizan Belgrade

Group H
Olympiacos
Fenerbahce Ulker
Zalgiris Kaunas
PE Valencia

Oh, okay, BiE’ll go ahead and say it: Group G is the “group of death.”

BallinEurope’s latest obsession started with a tweet. Specifically, a message from BiE’s main Lithuanian, Martynas “Air” Pocius. Pocius retweeted a fascinating stat about his Žalgiris Kaunas dug up by In The Game Basket, namely:

Žalgiris turns the ball over every four possessions in the Euroleague. Still they’re 4:3 and one win away from Top16.

Now we can make that 5-3 and still one win or one Baskonia loss away from the Top 16 after another typical 2010 Žalgiris outing against Asseco Prokom last week. In that match, the Lithuanian side eked out a 72-69 away win in Poland, though the home side had slight advantages in shooting (admittedly poor on both ends, as Prokom edged with 32% overall against Kaunas’ 30.5%) and rebounding.

And, of course, there were these statistics for Žalgiris: 59 possessions, 15 turnovers. Or 25.4%.

What gives? Join BiE on a romp through the numbers … and a lesson in that “will to win” principle expressed in real on-court terms.

Statistically speaking, Žalgiris utterly dominates any Euroleague discussion involving turnovers this season. On an individual level, the Kaunas squad has five players *averaging* 2.00 turnovers or more per game through eight: DeJuan Collins (2.75), Paulius Jankunas (2.50), Travis Watson (2.375), Pocius (2.125), and Mantas Kalnietis (2.00).

The effect on team statistics is predictable. The 10 Euroleague teams that turn over the ball most frequently are:

Žalgiris Kaunas, 19.375 turnovers per game
Lietuvos Rytas, 16.0
Cibona Zagreb, 16.0
Power Electronics Valencia, 15.875
Asseco Prokom, 15.625
Olympiacos, 15.555
Efes Pilsen, 15.375
Partizan Belgrade, 15.125
Lottomatica Roma, 15.125
CSKA Moscow, 15.0

A revealing bunch the above is, with just two teams possessing winning records (Žalgiris and Olympiacos) and the remaining eight generally having underwhelming-unto-disappointing seasons in 2009-10 Euroleague play.

As Žalgiris gives up the ball so frequently, BiE’s first assumption was that the Lithuanians must be making the most of every possession and so took a look at points scored per possession (PPP), considering the 10 teams listed above. The results:

Efes Pilsen – 1.223 points per possession (76 points / 62.125 possessions per game)
Olympiacos – 1.218 PPP (79.555 / 65.333)
Lietuvos Rytas – 1.171 PPP (74.625 / 63.75)
Žalgiris – 1.163 PPP (73 / 62.75)
Lottomatica Roma – 1.120 PPP (71.25 / 63.625)
PE Valencia – 1.103 PPP (67 / 60.75)
CSKA Moscow – 1.101 PPP (66.625 / 60.5)
Asseco Prokom – 1.086 PPP (69.75 / 64.25)
Partizan Belgrade – 1.085 PPP (65.75 / 60.625)
Cibona Zagreb – 1.019 PPP (66.875 / 65.625)

So Žalgiris is reasonably, if not stunningly, efficient: They’re scoring at about the same rate as Real Madrid (1.165 PPP) and who’d’ve believed that info bite at the season’s beginning? Incidentally, though the difference of 0.055 PPP between Žalgiris and mighty Olympiacos doesn’t seem like much, the stat says that, were Žalgiris playing with the Reds’ efficiency, the Lithuanians would add over 3.5 points per game to their scoring.

(And if you’ve noticed that serious anomaly in the above table – namely Žalgiris rival L.Rytas’ superior PPP score – the woes of the 2-6 side are explained below. Beware, however, because a whole new can of worms awaits to pile mystery on mystery in a particularly depressing season for L.Rytas…)

Incidentally, other top Euroleague teams have the following marks for PPP.

Fenerbahce Ülker – 1.330 points per possession (79.625 points / 59.875 possessions per game)
Panathinaikos – 1.309 PPP (78.875 / 60.25)
FC Barcelona – 1.270 PPP (75.75 / 59.625)
Maccabi Tel Aviv – 1.245 PPP (79.5 / 63.875)
Montepaschi Siena – 1.222 PPP (77.625 / 63.5)

But the real insight into How Žalgiris Is Doing It In 2010-11 is revealed from within that statistic American observers find bizarre, yet appears designed to define intangibles in certain big men (i.e. Tiago Splitter who dominated the category in ACB and EL play last season) and certain 5-3 Lithuanian teams: Fouls received.

Happily, Euroleague figure-crunchers track the drawn fouls stat, as the Žalgiris picture comes into focus – at least numerically. Of the 24 EL teams, just eight have an advantage balance in the ratio of fouls received to fouls committed; only five have significant favorable numbers:

Real Madrid – 1.187 fouls received per foul given
CSKA Moscow – 1.177
Žalgiris Kaunas – 1.160
FC Barcelona – 1.154
Panathinaikos – 1.095

While already impressive in its evidence of self-control, Žalgiris number is made even more impressive when the frequency of the Lithuanians’ trips to the line is factored in: Žalgiris players are taking a crazy 25.375 free throws on 24.5 fouls drawn per game. Only Panathinaikos is comparable here, with exactly one fewer attempt and one fewer make overall. Additionally, Žalgiris is one of only three teams that’s averaging more than one free throw per foul (Valencia and PAO are the others).

(And here’s the explanation about Lietuvos Rytas: While the team’s PPP rating ranks among the more effective EL teams, L.Rytas’ clearly suffers from a certain aggression. While Žalgiris as a team has taken 203 free throws in eight games, L.Rytas has had just 138 chances from the stripe on 163 fouls received. More specifically, why is this happening? Couldn’t tell ya.)

How important is foul shooting to Žalgiris? A few final stats are quite illuminating. True, Žalgiris is shooting 76.84% from the line, good for only eighth-best in the league, but is putting in 19.5 points per game on free throws: a 26.78% ratio of total points scored. By comparison, PAO is second in the Euroleague at 24.56%, while Partizan’s ratio is 23.38% and no other team is very close thereafter.

Could things for Žalgiris in 2010-11 be as simple as smart play and an “iron will to win”? All things considered, it’s tough to deny the (albeit abstract) contention. How about some love for the Aco Petrovic “Euroleague Coach of the Year” campaign…?

Welcome back Euroleague … erm … Turkish Airlines Euroleague! Someone just said you look like the poorest edition in recent years and that your groups are less competitive than Eurocup’s, but we love you just the way you are anyway.

What do you offer for 2010-2011? Yeah, the unbeatable Regal Barcelona and the usual group of pretenders, divided between those for whom spending money is no problem even amid civil disorder (for information, phone Athens) and teams able to hide behind the justification of cycles coming to an end just to put some money away waiting for financially better times: That’s the case of Montepaschi Siena and CSKA Moscow.

Who would have figured on this? In the last seven years, these two teams have combined to collect ten Final Four appearances and two titles. But they made a definite choice by investing an important part of their budget on Simone Pianigiani and Dule Vujosevic: “Right, we can’t compete with the elite teams for elite players, so we’ll try to beat them tactically, starting off with two of today’s best five European coaches.”

Something a bit similar must be happening in Piraeus, where the inability of Panayotis Yannakis became decidedly apparent during the last Euroleague finals, and Dusan Ivkovic has taken control of the best roster of the competition in my humble opinion and, above all, on paper. My wishful thinking suggests me to say nobody can beat Barcelona, my heart hopes are open to seeing some mid-level teams thriving during the season. You want names? Okay: BC Khimki and Power Electronics Valencia. These could serve as the loose cannons of the 2010-2011 Euroleague, I swear.

Ivkovic has the EL's most talented roster. Whatchu got?

Do you want more action? Let’s go with some scattered, useful cues to picture the competition in a more favorable light.

Is Regal FC Barcelona really unbeatable?
Think about a team that not only won last title, but also dominated the whole season. Then add Kosta Perovic. The result is a bulldozer. Xavi Pascual has at his disposal 12 players of the highest level, willing to sacrifice minutes and shots (though not Juan Carlos Navarro for sure) for the glory. The “problem” will be finding space for the five (!) big men, or in avoiding lapses in concentration, assuming the path from debut to playoffs is without obstacle.

In this scenario, pay attention to the work done on Ricky Rubio; Kobe Bryant said he’s ready for the NBA, but we don’t believe so. Development on the offensive end might fix his value in the US, however. Thanks to teammates who don’t need to be rooted, Rubio has the opportunity to step his game up and land with the Minnesota Timberwolves or someone more attractive – It all depends on him.

Bye bye, dear old champions; who’s next?
Nikola Vujcic went back to Split, Tiago Splitter finally departed for the NBA, Terrell McIntyre made Siena’s fans cry a lot, Nikola Pekovic went to Minnesota, Alan Anderson is in search of a good pro’ contract. Who can replace them? There’s a huge list of hungry youngsters on the verge to raise their standards. It’s easy to cite Jan Vesely and Nemanja Bjelica, but we prefer to note Giorgi Shermadini, Tibor Pleiss, Simas Buterlevicius, and Augusto Cesar Lima as well. For different reasons, they all have the numbers to establish themselves at the top.

Pargo: Ready to play with Sofoklis?

How much does the core count?
If we consider the last Euroleague winners, Barcelona and Panathinaikos both had a very consistent core of local players, even reuniting national team teammates. Rubio, Navarro, Fran Vazquez, Roger Grimau, Victor Sada; Dimitris Diamantidis, Vassilis Spanoulis, Kostas Tsartsaris, Fragiskos Alvertis. When CSKA Moscow put its flag at the top of European basketball, they didn’t quite do likewise, but the brotherhood among J.R. Holden (hey, he *is* Russian!), Matjaz Smodis, Theo Papaloukas, and Trajan Langdon was cut from solid bedrock.

I mean, teams like Real Madrid, Efes Pilsen Istanbul, Caja Laboral Baskonia, Montepaschi Siena, and Maccabi Electra Tel Aviv can’t get further than a playoff quarterfinal, or maybe a Final Four semifinal. It’s the story of Euroleague. Too many new faces do not make for “title now.” Neither does a me-first talented man. I’ll go all the way with the same three (Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, and Barça) plus a possible surprise.

How about rankings?
No, Os has done it so many times before. But I will point out what for me will be interesting. For example, the chemistry between Jeremy Pargo-Sofoklis Schortsianitis, the key to reading Maccabi’s season … The differences between Group A (ridiculous in toughness, with all teams potentially capable of taking the top spot or being eliminated, Group B (with two bigs and a race for the remaining two passes); Group C (dangerous for Siena with a new arrangement to prove); and Group D (the hardest, with AJ Milano a nightmare catch as a fifth seed) … Ettore Messina is convinced a shooter like Clay Tucker could settle the troubles his perimeter players have shown and keep on showing … How will Smodis return from the injury … If Emir Preldzic and Victor Claver will finally be able to attain the right mentality … Last but not least, I want to enjoy another unforgettable season by Bojan Bogdanovic and the laughter about why no one from the next floor has had the good sense to bet on him.

This seedings do not of course determine the draw but, together with some of the regional restrictions, will serve to limit the possibilities a bit – and naturally create at least one group perceived to be the top-heavy clichéd “Group of Death.” The rankings are done on a purely mathematical basis and based in three years’ worth of team performance.

The top seeds are comprised of three teams from last season’s final four in CSKA Moscow, FC Barcelona and Olympiacos; these three are joined by reigning ACB champion Caja Laboral Baskonia. No. 2 seeds are the sure-to-be new-look Montepaschi Siena, EΣAKE champions Panathinaikos, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid.

All five Spanish teams confirmed for the competition are within the top three seedings, meaning that a special exception will be made vis-à-vis the Euroleague’s standard policy of disallowing teams from the same nation in the same group. Though Ettore Messina already knows his team will be grouped with either CSKA or Olympiacos automatically, at least one of Spanish no. 3 seeds Valencia and Unicaja will “win” two extra dates against an ACB rival. Other no. 3 seeds are Partizan and Lietuvos Rytas – tough bunch, these 3s.

Action from last year's draw ceremony

In the 4s are Turkey’s perpetuals Fenerbahçe Ülker and Efes Pilsen along with Asseco Prokom and Virtus Roma. In the five spots are Žalgiris Kaunas, Cibona Zagreb, Brose Baskets Bamberg and AJ Milano, while the final two places are held by Union Olimpija and French champions Cholet Basket.

For the Qualifying Rounds draw, no. 1 seeds will be Alba Berlin, Asvel Basket; BC Khimki Moscow region; and Unics Kazan; no. 2s are Serbian Superleague runners-up KK Hemofarm Stada, Czech champion CEZ Nymburk, Budivelnyk Kiev and Le Mans Sarthe; no. 3 seeds are surprise Liga HaAl titleholder Hapoel Gilboa Galil, Maroussi BC, Spirou Charleroi, and replacement entry Banvit BC. Finally, the 4th seeds include Serie A finalist Pepsi Caserta, Romanian champs KK Budocnost, Chorale Roanne Basket and Holland’s top dogs GasTerra Flames Gröningen.

The draws will be held beginning at 11.15am CET on Thursday; all the pomp and circumstance may be viewed live at Euroleague.net.

Kinsey was big for Fenerbahce

Congratulations go out today to Fenerbahçe Ülker, who tore apart Efes Pilsen at home, 76-51, to take the Turkish Basketball League title in six games.

Four players – Mirsad Turkcan, Roko Ukic, Semih Erden and Tarance Kinsey – scored in double figures for Fenerbahçe, while Efes Pilsen was held to a lowly sub-33% on 16-of-49 shooting from the floor. Kinsey contributed eight rebounds as well.

Charles Smith was about the only hot hand for Efes Pilsen, turning in a double-double of 15 points on 5-of-8 shooting and 10 rebounds.

The series marked the fourth time Fenerbahçe and Efes Pilsen met for the TBL championship and the third in four years; however, today we’re mostly left wondering if in fact this would be the very last meeting between Turkey’s own Lakers and Celtics.

A bill currently before Turkish legislators would make sweeping changes to alcohol and advertising regulations, including the illegalization of Efes Pilsen’s basketball sponsorship. In response, Efes Pilsen owner Tuncay Özilhan stated that, should the bill come to pass, he’d simply fold the team rather than rebrand it or seek a merger, possibly with Beşiktaş Cola Turka.

No news on the bill’s passage has been advanced as of yet. We’ll have to wait and see if legalities can stop the Turkish power that only efforts like Fenerbahçe’s last night had heretofore been able to.

And now, last night’s view from the stands:

Scariolo: No, really, i can explain everything...

With one more week of Euroleague play to go before the field of viable contenders officially shrinks again, Ball in Europe contributor Francesco Cappelletti wraps the round that was in the big league. In this week’s roundup, Signor C. laments Montepaschi Siena’s fate, Sergio Scariolo’s precarious position and the reason Olympiacos might yet give Barca a workout before all is said and done (Hint: It starts with “Linas” and ends with “Kleiza”).

Group F focus
Oddly, the group which could have been in doubt until the buzzer of Week 6 suddenly has two qualified teams after five weeks: These are Real Madrid and Maccabi Tel Aviv, teams which will meet next Thursday at Palacio Vistalegre to define a first place currently in possession of the Israeli side for their 81-76 victory of February 4.

Montepaschi Siena was shocked by a 43-point fourth quarter scored by Alan Anderson and teammates. OK, take out the final (meaningless) 10 points, and 33 remain on the back of the Italian champions. How was this possible? MPS had recovered during the third period thanks to big hearted Terrell McIntyre and bad offensive decisions from previously unstoppable Doron Perkins, but, I mean, if you play with six men (seven minutes of nothing for Nikos Zisis in crisis, Ksistof Lavrinovic plagued by back spasms), and you enter the final fraction with a 3-point advantage at Yad Eliyahu, well, you know your destiny.

Montepaschi ran out of gas, watching the Anderson-David Bluthenthal duo destroy basket from the short or long range. Coach Simone Pianigiani has his faults, obstinate as he is about playing the same rotation every game in every competition. Somehow he didn’t notice the team aging, he didn’t want to accept that it might still be possible to win in Serie A by letting the likes of Tomas Ress, Marco Carraretto and Denis Marconato play more than Romain Sato and Shaun Stonerook…

An era is over, and the bad news is that the two new faces (Zisis and David Hawkins) brought in to represent a new beginning, are not worthy of Euroleague. Instead, Ettore Messina got in a full Abdi Ipecki and that away win he needed to be sure of a playoff spot. The second quarter was decisive, with four consecutive triples (two each for Jorge Garbajosa and Sergio Llull, again the best two on the floor) broke the game open and Efes Pilsen never managed to come back. Despite foul issues, Felipe Reyes was fundamental, giving an internal dimension Real often lacks in perimeter specialist Darjus Lavrinovic and Garbajosa.

On his part, Ergin Ataman forgot Daniel Santiago, very effective in just five minutes of use, while Igor Rakocevic has confirmed suspicions of those critics who say he hasn’t been playing because he no longer the same Igor Rakocevic. It seems Rakocevic has suddenly realized he’s 32 years old: He had the opportunity to turn around the worst Euroleague season of his career this week, but he wasn’t good at all.

Drew Nicholas: BallinEurope.com reader

Mental consistency
Sergio Scariolo must be furious. BC Khimki is now in third place in Group H and clearly not favoured to gain the group’s second pass to the playoffs. The Russians’ saga began with an amazing win in Baskonia, then it was time for a loss (with the same scoring differential!) in Moscow against Tiago Splitter-orphaned Caja Laboral, and the story continued with an unpredictable humiliation in Zagreb, where Cibona took the first success of its Top 16 and kept itself in the race to qualification.

The final week’s schedule shows an interesting game in BC Khimki-Olympiacos: Scariolo’s team must win by a margin of seven points more than Caja Laboral’s over Cibona. Otherwise, Scariolo is out. Out of Euroleague and, probably, his job. We’ll see if in Spain, Dusko Ivanovic will try to put injured Splitter back in the roster for the crucial game: Don’t tell him that Baskonia has a better look without the Brazilian and Mirza Teletovic is playing like an All-Star.

Talking about mental toughness – what BC Khimki hasn’t enough of – some word on Panathinaikos and Asseco Prokom is obligatory. The Greens saved their Euroleague season by winning in Belgrade (Did Drew Nicholas read the last Frank Euroleague Roundup? He answered it with an amazing 6-of-6 from beyond the arc) and messing up Partizan’s plans. Assuming Regal FC Barcelona doesn’t lose a decisive home game against Dule Vujosevic’s boys, the Serbian team is rooting for PAO to beat Maroussi BC, or the third Athenian club will go to playoffs to the Partizan’s detriment.

Kleiza: How will Barca stop him?

The real contender
We’ll have to wait for the draw which will cross the four qualified teams at the Final Four. However, we can just say Asseco Prokom is not a serious rival for Olympiacos, so the Reds are quite sure to be in Paris. The impression is they are the only squad able to make Barcelona sweat on the way to winning the trophy. Olympaicos has the talent, length, weight, and experience.

And above all, they have Linas Kleiza.

“Experts” who describe Kleiza as a power forward make me laugh: Have they ever seen him in action? Maybe when he was at University of Missouri he was a power forward. Now, he’s something out of the European standards of small forward. He has the body of a four, the movements of a three, and the shoot of a SG or SF.

Who on Barcelona can guard him? Big men Fran Vazquez and Terrence Morris haven’t the feet speed to stay with him, Pete Mickeal is physically smaller. Lubos Barton (who played four minutes at Maroussi in his first Euroleague appearance of the year) is for me the ideal solution, even if I know he’s not healthy and Xavi Pascual’s not a lover of individual defensive tachtical moves. But more than pick-and-roll plays involving Milos Teodosic/Theo Papaloukas and Nikola Vujcic/Ioannis Bouroussis/Sofoklis Schortsanitis, over Josh Childress’ explosions to the basket, Oly depends on Kleiza. And on defense, unwatchable and absolutely to change for a team whose ambition is to replace mortal enemy Panathinaikos on the throne.

Mumble mumble…
The breakout games of Sergio Llull (14.5 points in the last two games) did coincide with a light dip in Rimas Kaukenas’ numbers (a total of four points in 23 minutes); Messina thanks his Spaniard but he knows first place in Group F is due to a Lithuanian resurrection … Andrey Vorontsevich is the nicest news for coach Pashutin: With his contribution, the solid Sasha Kaun and an outstanding Viktor Khryapa, Pashution can easily bench Pops Mensah-Bonsu, a big man someone (e.g. Montepaschi, BC Khimki) would welcome with a red carpet … Aleks Maric caught 12 rebounds against Panathinaikos (no Pekovic for Obradovic) and shot 2-of-10 from the paint: It’s hard to face athletic giants like Mike Batiste and Marcus Haislip … Marko Tomas keeps on shining: Real Madrid’s management must again think of that unhappy movement intented to confirm Louis Bullock and discharge the Croatian … Young Zalgiris Kaunas’s honouring its Euroleague Top 16 bid better than did Unicaja Malaga, who would have believed so two months ago…?

Seriously. Montepaschi came into the game having looked strong in Euroleague competition this season thus far; with a good-enough win over Maccabi Tel Aviv to open the Euroleague Final 16 round and coming off a near-100 point win over Napoli in Serie A play, the visiting Italians entered the game a 3.5-point favorite.

So, to put it in a nutshell, what happened? Whither the outclassed play? And what does this say about Serie A ball, over which the suddenly visibly flawed MPS currently rules at 16-0. Managing to corner the busy Cappelletti for five minutes on chat, BiE asked a few simple questions.

BallinEurope: Okay, so basically, the question is this: What the fuck happened to MPS last night? i.e. What were the keys to their defeat, especially after that huge win the other day?

Francesco Cappelletti: So many reasons.

BiE: lol

FC: Remember: Napoli is not a real team. It’s near to failure. It has only 17-year-old players. Anyway, physically Montepaschi is in a bad moment. Lavrinovic has back spasms and it’s evident Montepaschi doesn’t have a frontline to face Efes Pilsen. If the referees are like those three of last night – I mean referees who love contact and allow a physical game – Siena doesn’t have any chance at the highest level, because near the basket it’s ridiculous. And if T-Mc and the others don’t put the 3s in … in the paint Eze and Stonerook are not worthy of the Euroleague Top 16 offensively, even less so with Lavrinovic at 50%.

BiE: But MPS is 16-0 in Italy! How is that possible, given how bad they looked last night?

FC: MPS is 16-0 because the Italian League is going down and down. To imagine the state of Serie A, think about the money Toti invested on Roma and the youth program of Treviso – they’re out of Final Eight! And Caserta is in second place!

BiE: Yeah, i was looking at the standings. More than half the teams are 9-7, 8-8, or 7-9. Crazy.

For those interested in highlights from Siena’s deflating, not-nearly-that-close 88-78 loss to Efes Pilsen, video may be seen here. Not for the faint-hearted.