Here is another new “off season” basketball series, that provides a lot of great information to our readers. Almost everybody that I speak to is “investing” money into bets – basketball bets! We will start a series of articles where we ask Basketball betting experts the same questions. Hopefully you can use their tips and make a couple euros or dollars on the side.
Our first expert is Alleks, who own the web site “betonbasket.com.” As you already can see from the title, this guy knows what he’s talking about!
BIE: What is your strategy for basketball bets? For example, how much research and what kind of research do you do?
BB: In general there is no big difference between basketball and soccer betting strategies. It’s all about evaluating your chances. If you expect Team A to win against Team B by 7 or more points and bookmaker gives you only -2 point handicap on Team A, then you have an advantage over the line and can place a bet. I suggest placing a bet only when your expectation differs at least by 3.5-5 pts from the bookmaker’s line.
For example, a bookmaker has an over/under of 156.5 while your line for this match is 160 points because you think that these teams are fast and offensive-oriented and the statistics are on your side.
A bookmaker’s job is to set a fair line and force a punter to think which side is better to choose. That’s why, when I open a betting line, I usually try to catch games where I see a wrong bookmaker estimation at first sight. Than I’m usually go deep into a selected match by grabbing news from the teams, reading forums, watching stats and line movements. Usually it takes about 5-15 minutes to make the final decision about a wager since I’ve started to analyze it.
Sometimes when I see a line two or three days before the event, I have much more time to think and get information on teams and players. But usually I make my bets (and send them to my customers) in the early morning because truly incorrect lines last for only three to four hours. After that, the betting company moves the line in the right direction.
BIE: Do you think it is possible to make a living with basketball bets?
BB: I think so, yes, if you have an alternative source of income. 🙂 Betting is a high-risk investment and only 5% of all punters can make profit in the long term. From my personal experience, I can say that I have two to three bad months per year when my logic simply does not work in betting. It’s normal for me, because I’m an experienced handicapper with solid betting experience but when it comes to rookies who just have opened an account, it’s another story.
When you start winning in the early stage of your betting career, you think that you can live from the betting income. When you bet for two to three years you understand that you need money to credit your betting account. You can make 50-70% profit for two or three months in a row (and live from betting during this period of time) but sooner or later you’ll have a losing period where you must learn how to manage your finances. In the long term (I mean at least 2-3 years) it is very hard to make 8-15% profit yield.
I think that it’s better to use betting as alternative source of income.
BIE: What is more interesting, NBA bets or European basketball bets?
BB: For me, European basketball without a doubt is more attractive. The NBA is more like a show for the US public with slam dunks, great athletes and popcorn. While European basketball it’s a GAME, where you see it all: coaching decisions, team philosophy and strategy, teams’ ups and downs, motivation in EVERY home game. Finally, you can watch European basketball on TV live without waking up in the middle of the night to see a TV broadcast from Los Angeles.
BIE: How much money do you bet per month?
BB: Speaking about me is more or less speaking for my customers (I own a paid picks service in Russia) for picks I deliver to them. I’ve talked to many serious players about their medium-stake (5/10 I mean) and an average bet size is around 200-300 euros. Per month, I usually provide around 50 picks so it means that monthly betting turnover of serious players from my subscription is around 12,000-15,000 euros. But for sure it all depends on your bank account balance. If you have 20,000 euros in income per month, you can spend more on betting.
BIE: Do you think that bets on women’s basketball are easier to make than on men’s games?
BB: No, I really don’t think so. Women’s basketball is different because women are women. I think the main problem regarding European women basketball is a team’s class. It’s the same all over Europe except some big clubs from Russia like CSKA, Spartak (Moscow Region) and UMMC. All others are the same class teams and usually when a big-name team meets a low-class opponent, it’s impossible to find value in the line because it all depends only on coaching decisions and team motivation. When average teams meet each other, psychology goes first and then everything else. You should be a women’s psychology professor to understand it and find value. 🙂
Another problem is that the European press and TV have very bad coverage of women’s basketball and it is not as popular as the men’s Euroleague. That is why at least for me, European women’s basketball is as easy as men’s basketball.
But during the summer months when men’s basketball is off, I feel very comfortable in WNBA betting. I like it because you got plenty of information about player injuries, motivation and other news from the press, and you can track each WNBA team all season long. When you have information and basketball understanding, it’s much easier to find value in the betting line.
BIE: Do you think that betting is addictive?
BB: Nice question. 🙂 I probably agree with this statement. Betting is addictive but it is easy to take a break after losing some thousands of euros, or simply when you don’t have the money (or ability) to credit your betting account. No money, no betting. It’s much easier to quit betting than quit smoking at least. But it is very close to casino addiction. Betting could be a really nice way of entertainment if you follow the golden betting rule: Never bet more than you can afford to lose
Thank you Alleks for your time and the great information you gave us. I am sure everybody who read this article got new information or is motivated enough to sign up with sportingbet right away to place their bet.