With March Madness coming up, one of the most exciting weekends for NCAA basketball betting is just around the corner but how do you make the most of the crazy opening days?
Let’s go back a few years. Stephen F. Austin were playing VCU and in trouble. Down 4 with seconds to play, they were all but out. Then a desperation three came with the most beautiful of bonuses as a VCU defender needlessly fouled the shot. That bonus forced overtime and a string of people tweeting Austin 3:16 before SFA took the W in overtime. That was one half of a nice double for this corner, having backed Mercer to cover as underdogs against Duke (Mercer would end up winning), and it wasn’t pot luck.
When you are looking for a Cinderella, you’ve got to look at the match-ups. Who looks like an ugly challenge for the big school. On paper, rather obviously, most underdogs have the same issues. They don’t have the resources of the power schools, that means less depth and usually less athleticism. To find the right Cinderella you need to find the wrong power teams.
The brackets come out this Sunday and, always, some teams are going to get too much love from the seedings committee. Look for a 4 seed that’s probably more of a 5, a 5 that’s more of a 6. That’s where you value lies. Think about why you doubt this side, where the holes are, then look at the calibre of the opponent. Is it one built to exploit that hole? Is it one that doesn’t need everything to go right but rather just a few breaks to pull the shock.
There’s a heap of fun in the opening week of March Madness betting but those who are smart about college basketball odds know that there are smart plays out there. A Cinderella might look adorable or at least consistent but it doesn’t mean a thing if they aren’t facing a side with the right holes. Ask the longtime Belmont believers who kept getting crushed because the Bruins ended up with a horrible draw in their peak years.
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