A grim night in the Grand Duchy has made Ireland’s EuroBasket 2029 journey increasingly complicated. Emmet Ryan on the defeat to Luxembourg and what the convoluted road ahead looks like.
Ireland came back from a disastrous start against Luxembourg, trailing by as much as 18 points at one stage, to look on course to win late. Then everything collapsed again and the EuroBasket 2029 journey got harder immediately.
It was a regrettable campaign start that echoed the display away to Kosovo in 2023. This was the type of result and performance that Ireland’s men were expected to be past by now. Instead, their job became a lot tougher after Thursday’s defeat.
About the game
Ireland started terribly and finished with frustration. The opening quarter and change was a team without any semblance of rhythm. It was far too easy for Luxembourg to create, particularly on the perimeter. In similar fashion, Ireland looked static offensively and every possession looked like a chore.
While some work bedding in was expected from Michael Bree’s charges, there’s little room for error in this phase of qualifying. Matters improved somewhat in the second quarter and considerably so in the third. By the time the early minutes of the final frame were under way, Ireland looked to have finally settled.
Instead a slender 74-70 lead was met with a 19-3 run from Luxembourg to close the evening. It was a well-earned win by the hosts but a dreadful display from Ireland. More importantly, it’s one that changes the dynamic of the remainder of this phase of EuroBasket 2029 qualifying for Ireland.
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The impact
Ireland entered this, the first round of EuroBasket 2029 pre-qualification, knowing that a pair of wins over Luxembourg was all but essential to its hopes. The three group winners from this phase will automatically progress to the second stage, due to take place in the late summer.
Given North Macedonia’s exceptional talent at the top of its roster, nobody else in this group can claim talents of the level of Omari Moore or Andrej Jakimovski, the target was to get that best second place. Doing so made winning both games over Luxembourg essential. Either an unlikely win over North Macedonia or keeping the points deficit from two defeats as low as possible was also required.
Now, a win over North Macedonia is the bare minimum required for a shot at progression. Even then, Ireland will need to improve the points differential considerably in the return game with Luxembourg. One part could be plausible, doing both seems a tough ask.
The Azerbaijan games are unlikely to matter for tie-breakers. As this is the lone 4 team group, results against whoever comes last will be discounted.
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So what does this mean?
Were Ireland to progress to the second round, they’d be fighting with 11 other teams for one of 4 spots in the main qualifying phase. The other 8 will drop down from the first phase of FIBA World Cup 2027 qualifying, which is currently under way.
That second round will be played in late summer 2026. The 8 sides that don’t progress will join the teams eliminated in the first round (this one), in the third round. That will be played in autumn of next year and the front half of 2027. This phase will decide the final 4 spots in the main qualifiers.
Ireland’s goal is to reach those main qualifiers but reaching the second round would make that job far easier. Even without winning a spot from there, they’d have better seeding for the third round. Thursday’s defeat in Luxembourg makes that a tall order. Nothing less than victory on Sunday will do. It’s unlikely but it’s the reality of the situation.
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