Ireland’s men’s national basketball team has two big EuroBasket 2029 qualifiers coming up on Friday and Monday. There are games outside of their control however that will go a long way towards deciding their next step.
With big games against Azerbaijan on Friday and Luxembourg on Monday, it’s safe to say Ireland’s men’s basketball team won’t be overly focused on what is happening in the other groups of EuroBasket 2029 pre-qualifying.
Fortunately, this is BallinEurope where such important nerditry can take centre stage. The future of Ireland’s qualifying campaign will be shaped by results in these other groups. With a complicated qualifying cycle, let’s explain what’s in store.
The one group that helps
As a quick refresher, the 3 group winners in this round will advance to the second round. The best runner up from the 3 groups will also advance. There will be another opportunity for Ireland to continue after this but it’s not preferable.
Group B, which features Norway, Bulgaria, and Armenia is immediately the most promising one to look at. Armenia lost to both in the first window but it’s the Norway vs Bulgaria game on Friday that merits big attention here. A loss for Norway opens a door for Armenia to strike back in the July window.
It’s worth noting that in this case Ireland should be rooting for Bulgaria to go 4-0 with heavy wins over both of the other teams. An Armenia win over Norway in July is also vital irrespective of what happens with Ireland this window.
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The group that hurts
Group C features Albania, Kosovo, and Slovakia. It’s also the group that is most likely to shut the door on any hope for Ireland claiming the best second placed slot. Albania lost to both of the other teams in the group in the opening window.
More importantly, it’s hard to see them avenging either loss. Next only to Azerbaijan, in Ireland’s group, this Albania side is likely the weakest overall of the sides across all of the groups.
Albania host Slovakia on Monday so Ireland should be rooting hard for a big upset there. Even then, Ireland needs Kosovo to record a couple of whopper aggregate wins over Slovakia to hurt their points differential.
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Where Ireland stand
Realistically, Ireland’s margin for error is already gone. It’s not ideal but also not impossible right now. The odd part is that the game most likely to help Ireland is happening on Friday in Group A. It’s not the clash with Azerbaijan in Dublin but, rather, Luxembourg’s visit to North Macedonia.
An upset by Luxembourg in that game is unlikely but not beyond the realms of plausibility. Luxembourg winning that or the return game in July is frankly vital to Ireland’s chances. Ireland’s best shot right now is to run the table and win the group outright. To do that, they need two losses on the docket for North Macedonia and Luxembourg is the only other side capable of doing that.
Alternatively, if Ireland win out without a favour from Luxembourg, it comes down to points differential for best second place. Ireland is -24 right now and needs to move that needle enormously, while also winning away to North Macedonia, in order to change its fortunes. The games with Azerbaijan won’t count towards that as this is the only four team group.
More than likely, Ireland won’t progress to the second round and that’s really down to the defeat in Luxembourg in the opener. That round offers a direct shot at the main qualifying stage and a better seed in the back door third round. The third is likely where Ireland will end up. That stage however promises to be tougher again.
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