It’s the eighth day of EuroBasket 2022 and the final day of action in Group C in Milan. The day begins with Ukraine taking on Croatia in a battle that will decide places 2 through 4
Where and when?
Mediolanum Forum, Milan, Italy. Tip off: 14.15 CEST, 13.15 BST, 08.15 EST, 05.15 PST
Record to date
Croatia 2-2 (L vs Greece, W vs Great Britain, W vs Estonia, L vs Italy)
Estonia 3-1 (W vs Great Britain, W vs Estonia, W vs Italy, L vs Greece)
What do the bookies say?
Croatia are favourites at 9/20 while Ukraine come in at 19/10. The point spread favours Croatia as -15.5 favourites.
What do we say?
That the point spread is ridiculous for starters. Nothing about Croatia so far has said they have the ability to beat a serious opponent by anywhere near that much and they’ve had long off periods in all their games except the win over Great Britain. It’s simply implausible that they dish out this kind of beating on Ukraine.
Especially so when Ukraine comes in fresh off a magnificent win over Italy and a loss to Greece that was much closer than the scoreline suggested and indicative of their need for rest before a big one. They know that keeping this close is enough to secure second and will fight this one to the end.
I’m taking Croatia straight up but comfortably, comfortably giving the points to Ukraine.
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