The new format for the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup will offer some teams what looks to be a reprieve but others an extra layer of risk. Emmet Ryan on the new staggered knockout format and what it means
Last time out at the FIBA Women’s World Cup, only 12 teams took part but two thirds of these sides progressed straight from the group phase to the quarter finals. The new look format, bringing the number back up to 16 and the re-introduction of a round of 12 changes things up a bit.
There are more opportunities to stay alive through group play, with winning the group taking on added value. There is, of course, an element of gaming things out for the sides that end up in the second and third spots.
Winning the group has a real reward
The switch back to the format first introduced in 2014 has put real value on group play. Much like the Basketball Champions League, winning the group essentially rewards teams with skipping a knockout round.
In order to keep only nominally live games from being dead rubbers, this is huge. In the top two to the quarter final scenario, there’s far less at stake for a pair of 2-0 teams playing each other in the final round of group play.
In this scenario, the upside is enormous. With only the group winners going straight to the quarter finals, that automatically makes such instances take on a far greater value. It’s a simple tweak but a good one.
A big intercontinental clash
The clash of Belgium and Australia in group play is automatically a much bigger deal because of this format. Both will be expected to advance to the knockout phase and both could well be 2-0 entering it.
Furthermore, the group winners will be on the opposite side of the draw to the Group D winners for the rest of the competition. Given that’s likely to be the USA, avoiding them until the final is a huge plus.
Assuming the loser ends up in second spot, they would get a favorable qualification game. The chalk like however means that Spain and then USA would be their next likely opponents. Utter gauntlet stuff.
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The rest factor could be huge
All international tournaments feel like sprints but the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup takes that up a notch. The winners of Group A and Group B will have two full days off after the group phase. Their opponents will have played the prior day.
Every day off matters in these tournaments. Even at the men’s EuroBasket in 2025, the players spoke about how hard playing on consecutive days in the group phase was. At least then, players knew that splitting the results was acceptable by and large.
Instead, those going through the qualification round will have either a single day off or none between games. That’s a huge ask when they will inevitably be going up against a side that is both in form and better rested.
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Little room for error
For those that don’t recall, the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup followed the old Olympic format. There were two groups of six with the top four in each progressing to the quarter final round.
That meant five games with room to drop a couple while still being able to stay in contention. Now, one upset can change who gets the bye to the quarter finals and the jockeying for position only gets more intense.
In short, contenders can’t just work their way into the tournament and find their feet. It’s a dash from the off and every poor performance, even in group play, has big consequences. That’s a serious dynamic shift and one that should provide entertainment in Berlin.
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