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Is being drafted still worth it?

June 4, 2008

With the NBA Draft 2008 approaching, I was wondering if it’s still a dream to be drafted by a NBA team. The decline of the US dollar and the financial improvement of top European clubs has reduced the gap between NBA franchises and the top teams of The Continent.

To start with, you have to know that the NBA fixes the salaries of NBA rookies, the result of some huge amounts paid over long periods to rookies (recall Glenn Robinson) before they ever played a game in the big league. So today, every player drafted in the first round has a guaranteed contract for two seasons and three optional seasons.

For example, the player drafted at No. 1 this year knows that he will earn $8.339 million in his first two seasons combined. Even with an exchange rate of €1 to $1.50, this is still a large amount in Euros. But this salary is gross, so the player has to pay 29% tax on the amount; so he will only earn $5.920 million USD, about €4 million, in two years.

If you go to the middle of the first round, the guaranteed salary for a player drafted 15th in the first two seasons combined will be about $2 million net. This is €1.3 million in two years, so about €650,000 per season. Guaranteed. This is a salary that good European players are paid in Europe.

So for a 22-year-old Euroleague player with NBA potential, this is not really a big deal and he may earn more in Europe. An example of this was the case with Fran Vazquez, who refused an offer from the Orlando Magic to take a better contract in Spain.

When we go to the final spot in the first round, the last spot that gets a guaranteed contract, the salary is even lower. The 30th spot is worth $1.6 million in two years which corresponds to approximately €400.000 net. This is already a common salary for a Euroleague player. If you go after rumors of what certain players are getting paid in Russia, Greece or Spain, 400K is nothing.

So after all this, is it still worth it for a European player to get drafted at all? Of course, if you go to the Top 10-15, you can earn a contract that is probably higher than what you can get in Europe. Below this, I have some doubts.

Can we say that there is already a trend for fewer Europeans to be drafted because of this? Maybe. At least the names that you see in the last spots of the first round will no longer be top European players like Tiago Splitter, for example (I hope so for every NBA franchise). These guys will never come to the NBA for the maximum salary that they can get there, as any European club can offer more.

Another solution is to be drafted in the 2nd round or not at all and only join the NBA at a later age. This gives players the opportunity to land a contract more in line with the real skills and salary expectations, as the rules are less restricted for these players.

However, for mid- to low-first round US players, checking what the market can offer them in Europe may be worth it. This phenomenon may become reality for some collegiate players with a European background this season: Kosta Koufos or Pat Calathes are rumored to have already received professional offers from Europe which will probably be higher than any NBA team can offer them according to current rules. Will other US-born first-round picks follow them? Will the agents recognize this situation in the future?

Of course, this has been a possibility since the decline in the US dollar makes European salaries more and more attractive. So will we ever see a No. 1 pick refuse its NBA offer to move to Europe? And when will European teams recruit American high school players for their own (paid) youth programs and challenge the NCAA?

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Jun 4, 2008ballineurope
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Comments: 11
  1. Teo
    17 years ago

    This is all well and true, but still it remains a fact that NBA players earn money by means of deals with brands as well, and the market in the nba still is much bigger for all that than in europe. Also, the simple fact that the prestige of playimng in the NBA is much higher than, say, playing in the greek league will always be a factor.
    Because as long as euroleague games are on, it is all well and interesting, but the majority of games being played in europe by euroleague teams are against much inferior opponents of their own leagues. Apart from spain, almost all the championships in europe are not really competitive, apart from the first 3-4-maximum 5 teams. In the nba you will always have a lot of teams competing for top spots, so playing there could simply be more intersting for a player. I have read that Sarunas actually misses playing many games a year on a top level, and it gets him down to play top euro teams one day and the 11th of the greek league the next. Europe simply has a far greater number of professional basketball teams than the states, so comparing playing in europe to the nba is a bit off… I believe if we had something like a full fledged euroleague, with tons of games a year against the top euro teams and a relegation system that would be the connecting point to the domestic leagues (i.e. the winner of the domestic league enters the euroleague and does not even play domestic ball the next year) we could ponder top ten picks coming to europe, because the actual competition would be VERY close to the nba with the added perks of the more traditional and fanatic atmosphere and more interesting playstyle in europe.
    but as long as there is no single true league in europe that comes close to the NBA I just can’t see all that happening. Koufos is a great example, he won’t come to greece if he gets picked by a team that offers him actual playtime, even if he falls as low as 15-20. He wants to play NBA, he has had offers from greece for quite a while and didn’t go for the money because he was aiming at the nba. It’s just his thing. Now tiago splitter probably won’t be easy to convince by the spurs, being in the position he is… all in all three cheers for the euroleague and i prefer watching it to the nba on any day, but it is still miles behind in terms of organisation and marketing, and as long as that is not resolved it won’t really be a competition.

    ReplyCancel
  2. kris
    17 years ago

    Dont forget the problem regarding paying the salaries on time or at all in Europe.I guess for American players, its safer to stay in the US and live off that money they are getting there, even if a team in Europe may offers them more.It is true, that most players there are out for the NBA, not for Europe, mostly players from the second round may take offers from Europe in order to have a well paid season, even though money in Europe is never guaranteed.

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  3. Christophe
    17 years ago

    all your points are excellent. Of course, the day when a No1 pick would come to Europe are not close to happen.

    The shoe deals, well, I don’t know that much about them, but a No25 picks wont earn millions with them i guess.

    The prestige is of course still a factor. however, playing level if you play for a team that has no chance going to the Playoffs is not that big either.

    The safety of the salaries is of course a factor.

    But tell me how to calculate all these factors into this? If you can do that, then we would have a great result.

    ReplyCancel
  4. Alberto
    17 years ago

    I think you believe that Europe is Africa or something like that…

    ReplyCancel
  5. Teo
    17 years ago

    @alberto:
    no actually, I believe that basketball-wise europe even has superior talent to the states (although that is a big discussion). Only basketball isn’t half as much of a business in europe as it is there, and as such, it is much more streamlined in the states. Some teams even make money in the states, and top notch european teams are black holes when it comes to money and really need loving caring sponsors (teams with great sponsors like AJ, Benetton, PAO, Oly, etc…)

    But all things considered, the fact that upcoming stars such as Pekovic choose to stay in europe although nba teams could be salivating over them shows a good trend and certainly things are moving here. Let’s just wait until you can get a free agent of LBJ-magnitude to CSKA and that will be the exact point when top-US-born players will start considering europe. but until then we have lots of arenas to build and laws to pass and rules to agree upon in our messy european thing which, considering that so many countries and leagues are involved, is by far a harder task than it was for the NBA.
    Maybe we should be content until then with the fact that the eurobasket probably is the overall tightest basketball competition on the planet and let the nba champions be the world champions of marketing 😉

    (btw. is anyone else annoyed by the fact that every nba title is called the world championship? even if they ARE the best team, they first would have to compete to reach that title, otherwise it’s just speculation…but hey, that’s marketing, and the players there actually BELIEVE it. they would never believe they are playing for the world champion if that was CSKA, even if they had one of the best european players of our time in papaloukas in their rosters and 6 more of those. who is nikos galis to them, they have larry bird!)

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  6. Alberto
    17 years ago

    Teo, I meant that in Europe, the players get their salaries in time (few exceptions), and I don’t think any american player think about staying in the states ‘cos in Europe he won’t get his money. It’s more that they don’t know Europe exists before coming here, I think.
    About the world champions, yes, that’s a proof of how stupid americans can be…

    ReplyCancel
  7. Hersey
    17 years ago

    Interesting article and comments. I think the strongest points are for players toward the bottom of the first round and second round who could actually make more money in Europe. Business-wise it would be shrewd but there are factors in favor of the NBA (some already mentioned.)

    For example let’s look at a player like Gilbert Arenas. He was a second round pick. He got spotty playing time his first year and then exploded into a star and cashed in. The potential to make a ton of money on a contract and turn the television exposure into lucrative endorsements is much greater in the United States. The NBA is third in popularity and the top salaries are higher than the NFL and on par with MLB, which plays a season twice as long.

    Will basketball ever get the attention proper football does in Europe? I seriously doubt it. How likely is it the average European would know a player from a local Euro team as opposed to someone saying I play for the New York Knicks in the NBA? The earning potential and the prestige tips the scales.

    I found some salary numbers on your site and it seems the best paid Euro players earns a strong NBA role player’s salary. If I’m a lottery pick, there’s no way I make the jump to Europe. Danny Ferry did it to avoid playing for the Clippers.

    Now if I’m parent with sports prodigy, I’d take a long look at Europe’s player development system. That’s an interesting topic right there.

    As for the world champion question. I don’t think it’s stupid. I would like to see the NBA’s best in a mini-tourney with other international champions. But the X factor is the NBA plays with significantly different rules. So technically the NBA champ is a rightful world champ being only the league playing with those rules.

    ReplyCancel
  8. Kris
    17 years ago

    @Hersey:
    Salaries in Europe are after taxes while the numbers we know are before taxes.When you add the fact, that the dollar is on a critical low this year, than even a lottery pick could be interested playing in the first three years in Europe as well, depending on the offers, as I would not wonder if some teams in Europe would make bigger offers than before if they believe in a player.

    Regarding the World Champion, your answer is bogus, as they all compete in the same sport, no matter what different rules they set up, so claiming a title in a particular sport without playing against teams from around the globe is purely arrogance in my eyes.Yes, American hoops used to be the best available, but nowadays, the NBA should at least consider the fact, that some European teams could edge many NBA-teams in real competition, and due to that, may re-name the championship into the US-Canadian-Championships , which it is de facto.
    Arenas is just a positive example (on the opposite side, there are probably five Ronnie Fields), what about all the players still playing in the minors without ever cashing in any big-time money, just because they wont give up their dream of playing in the NBA? Moneywise a stupid move, but when you’re heart says so, thats good other players,that means for above-average players less competition for the big money offered by big teams in Europe.

    ReplyCancel
  9. Mark
    16 years ago

    two words JOSH CHILDRESS! hahahahaha! end of debate!

    ReplyCancel
  10. Shilas
    15 years ago

    Another example of NBA arrogance, to every player they type: Years pro…

    That shows not how many years the player plays professional basketball, but how many years he plays in NBA… Therefore Arvydas Sabonis when he entered NBA with 14 years of professional basketball experience (he started in Zalgiris at age 16, and entered NBA at 30) was a ROOKIE!

    Therefore Euroleage is just an amateurs league according to statistics (of NBA).

    ReplyCancel
  11. Issues in Sports
    15 years ago

    The NBA is third in popularity and the top salaries are higher than the NFL and on par with MLB.

    ReplyCancel
Pingbacks: 4
  1. Can the NBA Keep Attracting Foreign Talent? | top sport blogs
    17 years ago
  2. US High School Star playing in Europe? : Ball in Europe - Basketball Blog
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  3. The NBA Draft for Euros begins in the 2nd round : Ball in Europe - Basketball Blog
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  4. Ball in Europe, the European Basketball Blog » Blog Archive » On the differences between American and European basketball
    15 years ago

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17 years ago 15 Comments More, NBA/NCAAACB, EuroLeague, FC Barcelona, Fran Vazquez, Glenn Robinson, Kosta Koufos, NBA, NBA Draft 2008, NCAA, Orlando Magic, Pat Calathes, Spain, Tiago Splitter
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