We knew it would take time for Partizan to gel in Euroleague. The clock is not being kind to the Belgrade club. Zeljko Obradovic knows the challenge. To get back on track, Partizan may need to simplify its style of basketball.
Back on 15 October I wrote that a 4-6 or 3-7 start in the first 10 games of the season would be acceptable for Partizan. A limp finish against a bad Olimpia Milano side on Friday night meant they missed the target. With a 2-8 record, it’s going to take a surge before the new year to save their season.
The run has been poor
Partizan were 2-2 after four rounds. The ship appeared to have righted itself. Since beating Maccabi Tel Aviv on 17 October, Zeljko Obradovic’s side has lost 6 straight. This included four home losses and only two of their defeats have been within a possession at the end.
This game against Olimpia Milano was meant to be a chance to fix all of that. The Italians have been listless all season long. It was one of the few teams that arguably had less of an identity on the basketball court than Partizan. Instead, despite Milano putting themselves in positions to lose repeatedly, they were good money for their 7 point win on Friday night.
Going unbeaten in the ABA League should have helped fix the mental issues. This is a side that should, with the regular games against a lower standard of opponent, have far more chemistry than what is being witnessed right now. Instead, it sits in 16th place and fans are already wondering if this is a lost season.
The numbers are ugly
Big thanks to Cappe90 for the image below. It shows efficiency ratings for all 18 Euroleague sides. Only Alba Berlin and Virtus Bologna, the two sides below Partizan in the standings, are cumulatively worse on the floor.
Partizan are, quite simply, performing poorly on both ends of the floor. Stats & Image via Cappe90
Defensive issues seem like the easy area to pick apart but its the inconsistent offensive performance that sticks out for me. Zeljko Obradovic’s side is 13th in points scored, 10th in assists, and 9th in offensive rebounds. Those are the types of numbers that should have them around the play-in spots.
The problem is that everything comes in runs for Partizan. Whenever an opponent gets even a sliver of offensive momentum, it’s like the floodgates open. That’s why a highlight reel of Partizan looking like the slickest basketball team alive is easy to put together. They have spells where they are electrifying. When the power goes out, it’s like they don’t know what a fuse box is let alone where it’s located.
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Things have to get simpler
Zeljko Obradovic doesn’t lack talent in this roster. There are lots of guys who belong on a contending basketball team. Euroleague requires more than that. In the effort to get everyone their touches, the cohesion on both ends is being lost.
The obvious positive is Tyrique Jones. He’s banging hard and putting up decent numbers without bad ball security. Similarly, the numbers for Vanja Marinkovic mean reinserting him if he’s healthy on Friday makes sense. These two along with Sterling Brown need to start logging ugly minutes. A shorter rotation, for now at least, with some heavy duty time logged is vital to getting order on the court.
Isaac is logging the most minutes of anyone for Partizan this season, at 23:53 per game. That’s only 44th in the whole Euroleague. Carlik Jones (52nd) and Tyrique Jones (55th) are the next most used. If Partizan were 8-2 that would be fine. They’re not, they’re 2-8. That means a core unit has to be formed. Egos will have to be bruised. It happens. It’s what is necessary to make a step forward.
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The run matters
Prior to this week’s double round, I forecast Partizan as needing to go 4-2 over the six game run ahead of it. The 2 in that has already been filled. That said, losing to FC Barcelona isn’t a disaster. The Blaugrana may have a unit designed to wreak regular season havoc in Euroleague.
The derby is on Thursday, with Partizan as the nominal road team. Then come four home games out of the next five, with the odd one out being a road trip to last placed Alba Berlin. If Partizan are serious about turning this season around it starts against Crvena Zvezda yet that also can’t be treated as the win or die game.
A 4-2 run over the next six games would bring Partizan to 6-10. Not great but manageable. There are very few games on the docket that aren’t winnable for a team with this much talent. Yet, right now, it is clearly the second best team despite the quality on the roster. Zeljko Obradovic knows this, he’s been gruff and to the point in his post-game interviews. Now, he needs to accept the change starts with what he puts on the floor. No ego, just ball.
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