The clock is ready to hit midnight but who will still be at the ball after Zalgiris Kaunas host FC Bayern Munich in Euroleague Basketball action on Friday?
The odds are against both sides and the situation is grim. Still, hope of reaching the play-ins of Euroleague Basketball remains alive for both Zalgiris Kaunas and FC Bayern Munich heading into Friday’s clash.
Key details
Who: FC Bayern Munich (12-16) vs Zalgiris Kaunas (11-17)
Where: Bmw Park, Munich
When: Friday 15 March at 20.30 CET/19.30 UK & Ireland/14.30 EST
Last time out
FC Bayern took a paddling in Istanbul at the hands of Anadolu Efes. They had recorded two wins on the bounce in Euroleague Basketball heading into that. Still, in a game that mattered a lot for for both sides, the German side was left floundering.
Zalgiris Kaunas played Maccabi Tel Aviv tight last week but it was an all too familiar result for them in defeat. The Lithuanian side has simply not been able to get enough Ws when it matters this season.
Key battles
In a surprise to nobody, Serge Ibaka leads FC Bayern in both points and rebounds this season in Euroleague Basketball. He was about as high profile an acquisition as they could have made. The pieces around him however haven’t risen incrementally enough to take full advantage. Still, he should prove a nightmare for the visitors.
Zalgiris Kaunas has been the Keenan Evans show this year, albeit ably assisted by Rolands Smits. Limiting what Evans can create is more important than curbing his own scoring for FC Bayern. How the home side does this should prove telling on the whole.
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Need to know
This is really it for both sides. FC Bayern are nominally only a game out of the play-ins as things stand. Tiebreakers however don’t favour them so they really need to start climbing and to do so now. Beating the sides beneath them in the standings is vital to getting that done.
Zalgiris Kaunas have been far stronger at home than on the road. They have the bulk of their games after this at home. That means a win here could prove a springboard for a run to the play-ins. Defeat and it’s all she wrote.
What the bookies think
FC Bayern are 4/6 favourites on most markets for Euroleague Basketball betting. The best value I could find for Zalgiris Kaunas was 11/8. Both of those prices seem reasonable to me.
The point spread favours FC Bayern by -3.5. That’s essentially the old home advantage of 3 points plus half a point tacked on. It’s the equivalent of a pick’em on a neutral court. Again, that feels about right to me in terms of pricing.
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What we think
There will be nerves in this game. Make no mistake of that. Both of these sides seem built for late season runs as well. The thing is, I only see the winner of this being capable of doing that.
There should be at least one quarter that is borderline unwatchable due to the caution on both sides. That’ll probably be the second. Whoever manages to recover best from the dead spell, and there will be a dead spell, should be able to come out on top.
The prediction
This is a game that seems made of vibes and destined to be a hot mess, basically the opposite of our other preview this week. As a result, I’m saying that anyone betting on Zalgiris Kaunas should take the outright and not the points. That said, I’m not taking the visitors. FC Bayern look to have just enough in the tank to keep their Euroleague Basketball season alive. I’m taking them with the points.
Pick: FC Bayern at -3.5.
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