The elite eight of basketball have been decided as the quarter finals of the 2023 FIBA World Cup get under way. Wednesday begins with Germany taking on Latvia.
Key details
Who: Germany (5-0) vs Latvia (4-1)
Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila
When: 6 September at 16.45 Manila time/11.45 Riga/10.45 Berlin/9.45 London/6.45 New York
How they got here
Germany went 5-0 through the first two phases. In the opening group stage they beat Australia, Finland, and Japan. Germany followed that up with impressive wins over both Georgia and Slovenia.
Latvia recorded wins over Lebanon and medal favourites France in the first stage before losing to Canada. They bounced back to stun Spain and then beat Brazil.
Key battles
Who’s got Zagars? That’s the question for Germany as Latvia’s Arturs Zagars has been a revelation at this tournament. The other key man for Germany to contain will be Davis Bertans, with the Oklahoma City Thunder man bringing both talent and experience to this game.
Germany has one of the deepest rosters in this tournament. Moritz Wagner is joined by Dennis Schroeder, Daniel Theis and many more in terms of the challenges for Latvia to deal with. For Latvia, the key issue is in making sure its stars don’t tire out against the more rested Germans. There remain questions over the availability of Franz Wagner, Mortiz’s brother, who is carrying an injury.
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Need to know
Latvia’s story at this World Cup is phenomenal. Getting here was a big deal in itself. Then they lost Kristaps Porzingis, their superstar, before the tournament. This was by Dairis Bertans, their captain and brother of Davis, being injured in group play. Despite these setbacks, they continue to impress. With a much stronger roster, they reached the quarter-finals of EuroBasket in 2017 but they may have a better chance of advancing in this tournament.
Germany rode home advantage to a place in the semi-finals of EuroBasket 2022 but they may have higher ambitions this year. A FIBA World Cup win is considered a serious prospect for a side that has impressed in every outing so far.
For both teams, a win could potentially secure a place in the Olympics next year. The top 2 European teams at this tournament will receive automatic spots in Paris 2024.
What the bookies think
Straight-up, Germany are big 1/5 favourites with Latvia outsiders at 10/3 on some markets. The point spread has Germany as -9.5 favourites, which looks just about right to me.
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What we think
The issue for Latvia will be lasting with this Germany side. Both Slovenia and Georgia showed that it’s possible to start strong against Deutschland but this team is designed to go the full 40 minutes. There may never be a better chance for Germany to make a major final with this group of players. That puts extra pressure on but, again, they look capable of absorbing that stress.
The prediction
The 2023 FIBA World Cup dream dies in Manila for Latvia I’m afraid. That’s no slight on Germany, they’re a great team that’s fun to watch. It’s just always sad to be picking against a team with a story like Latvia’s. I’m going to pick Germany to cover the points as well.
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