It’s the final four of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. The USA and Germany will do battle in Manila on Friday to see who progresses to Sunday’s final. Emmet Ryan breaks down the big match-ups and makes his prediction.
Key details
Who: USA (5-1) vs Germany (6-0)
Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila
When: Friday 8 September at 20.40 Manila/14.40 Berlin/13.40 London/8.40 New York
How they got here
The USA recorded wins over Jordan, New Zealand, Greece, and Montenegro before losing to Lithuania. They bounced back with a big win over Italy in the quarter finals to book their place in the semi-finals of the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Germany are the only perfect team left in the competition. They have wins over Australia, Japan, Finland, Georgia, Slovenia, and, most recently, Latvia.
Last time out
The USA utterly dominated Italy in every aspect of the game but it was a tailor-made opponent for them. The Americans have struggled with traditional FIBA basketball style big men. Italy simply didn’t have one. The Italians were also dire offensively. Part of that can be put down to the USA’s D but it was mostly due to their own inefficiency.
Dennis Schroeder had an awful night for Germany, going just 4 of 26 from the field, including missing his first 12 shots. Despite that Germany got over the line and showed the depth of their side. The Germany bench outscored Latvia’s bench 44-6.
Key battles
Jaren Jackson Jr vs Daniel Theis is the battle to watch here. JJJ has been terrible at the 5 for the USA and his alternatives, Paolo Banchero and Walker Kessler, don’t really fit the style either. With Johannes Voigtmann another big banger backing up Theis, Germany have the meat to make life tough for the USA.
The other key duel will take a while to start. That’s because Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t start for the USA. How he competes with Schroeder, who will surely be better than the last day, may well prove decisive in this game.
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Need to know
Franz Wagner showed no signs of his ankle injury bothering him in the win over Latvia. He came off the bench in that game but the Orlando Magic man played a crucial role in Germany’s win. Germany’s bench is going to need another big night. With Moritz Wagner bringing a lot of energy and Maodo Lo a fine creator, Germany have depth.
That’s going to matter a lot as the USA has, so far, been able to lean on its second unit. That advantage simply isn’t the same with this opponent. Steve Kerr, the USA head coach, has stuck with the same starting five in all of their games so far. Unless he changes that, this could be another rough day for him.
What the bookies think
The USA are 2/11 favourites in this game and that seems to overstate their quality. The Americans should be favoured on paper but it’s a surprise that the sportsbooks have them as such clear betting favourites.
Germany are 9/2 to win this game, which looks like great value. There may not be as complete a roster at the 2023 FIBA World Cup as this one. The point spread has the USA as -10.5 favourites, which is frankly ridiculous.
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What we think
The USA has the most talented roster at this competition, there’s no doubt of that. That is very different from having the best team at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. I’m not even sure they have the third best, and there are only four teams left.
Germany last reached this stage in 2002, in Indianapolis. They have never reached a final. They’ve also never had a team this good. If there was ever a time for that to change, it’s this Friday in Manila.
The prediction
Germany to win. It’s that simple. They will bully the Americans on the inside and make it to the final.
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