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2012 Olympics: Is Spanish dominance over? (Plus Official Fearless Predictions™)

August 6, 2012

BallinEurope may be pulling the trigger a bit early on this one, but has to ask: Was the loss to Russia on Saturday a harbinger of things to come from Team Spain? Not to put too fine a point on it, but is the marathon (by today’s standards) golden age of Spanish basketball in international competition over?

It is that sheer length of the era of Spanish dominance that makes one wonder about the security of Los Rojos’ presumptive top-dog status going forward: Since 2001, Team Spain has medalled in nine of 13 international tournaments – including the Olympic Games, FIBA Eurobasket, FIBA World Championship/Cup and Mediterranean Games. In the past six years, the Spanish have taken home three golds and five silver from FIBA and the IOC, the sole missed podium coming at the 2010 FIBA Worlds, when Pau Gasol no-showed and Team USA brought its “B Team.”

For comparison’s sake, Team Argentina has dominated South American basketball similarly, running up 11 medals in 16 tourneys – editions of the Olympics, FIBA Worlds FIBA Americas Championship, FIBA Diamond Ball and Pan-Am games – in the same time span. The best historical comparison is of course the Teams Yugoslavia of the 1980s/early 90s, who took 10 medals between 1980 and 1991 before its country itself became obsolete.

The point here is that all good things must come to an end. And, to further dirty up this thing with clichés, Team Spain ain’t getting any younger.

Argentina has been speculated to have the oldest Olympic basketball roster ever: The average age on the South American side is just about 31.25 years old. Overall, Spain does better in this statistic, but with the exception of Marc Gasol, the remaining core squad is literally old guard: Pau Gasol, Juan Carlos Navarro (and his 200+ national team caps) and Felipe Reyes are all over 32; Jose Calderon is 30.

It may also be argued that few Team Spain players are actually in their primes right now aside from definitely Gasol the Younger and maybe Rudy Fernandez (though as he languishes in the NBA, it’s so hard to tell…)

Now this may sound like mere grousing guys who may be older but remain world-class players, particularly given that BiE has, let us say, quite a few years on any of these guys, but some pretty compelling visual evidence suggests that the kilometers are showing while a Team Russia can bring the daunted athleticism and size Spain’s been teaching international ball about for the past decade.

After going up 20-2 and 22-5 early, Spain was revisited by an old bugaboo that BiE thought they’d solved with some fresh blood: namely, stamina issues. After starting out as hot as, well, you know, Spain, with 9-of-11 shooting, Los Rojos managed just 18-of-52 the rest of the way (34.6%) including a woeful 3-of-10 on threes – typically a Spanish specialty.

Reasons? How about 3-of-11 shooting in a too-high 23 minutes of play by La Bomba? How about Sergio Rodriguez (thought to be coach Scariolo’s secret weapon going into the ‘Games) and Rudy Fernandez’ shaky defense and lost looks on offense? And why isn’t Serge Ibaka getting more time? Excepting the latter, how much can be blamed on stamina problems?

In this writer’s opinion, a lot. See, BiE believes that, while Spain *can* play a more physical style, they prefer not to. Scariolo’s insistence on giving Ibaka relatively few minutes (under 15 game through four and just nine minutes logged against Russia) is particularly puzzling, as is the lack of use of an awesome Triple Towers lineup with the backcourt punchless and Rubio-free. (Indeed, in the big first-quarter run against Russia, all was going to plan: The Gasols logged 12 points, six rebounds, four drawn fouls and two blocks – double-handedly outdoing the Russians in all categories.

So what happened, with Scariolo’s lineup set as it was? The stronger and nearly as deep Russians simply wore ‘em down. David Blatt had his team play tough trap defense, take care of the ball (Russia committed just 10 turnovers in the game) and wait for the “untouchable” Spainards to make mistakes and settle for nervy jumpshots while cleaning up the glass with muscle (The Reds won the war of the boards, 33-32). Sound familiar? The same description applies to David Blatt’s guys upset of Los Rojos back in Eurobasket 2007 – albeit without the necessity of a comeback. And Team Spain’s fans cannot like that chilly feeling of déjà vu Pau’s missed free-throw gave them…

Now the road to the gold for Team Spain will most likely go through Argentina and the USA before the medal round – presuming they win against Brazil tonight. With a loss, they’d likely draw France followed by Russia. (Sudden thought: Could Spain tank for a better draw? O gods, no…)

So does BiE do it? Will the death – or at least a brief coma until the new nucleus of Ricky Rubio, Marc Gasol and Ibaka take over – of Team Spain begin tonight? Can the more dynamic Brazil, a team looking cloned but tougher, produce the best defense they’ve ever played? And again – o god – will Los Rojos shamelessly tank?

BallinEurope is really killing time before this particular Official Fearless Prediction™ but will finally have to hedge and you know what? Here’s a real demonstration of fearlessness: Brazil by two. And in that other game, the one with storied history behind it, BiE says Team USA by 14.

Aug 6, 2012ballineurope
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This post was published on August 6, 2012
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Comments: 17
  1. LG
    10 years ago

    I think a lot of Spain’s future will be determined by Ricky Rubio’s development. Spain has been carried onto the world stage on the the shoulders of Pau Gasol, (with some help recently from his brother.) It’s no coincidence that they failed to medal in the world game when Pau didn’t play. Without him the team will fall of dramatically unless they can find another big talent to take his place. Rubio seems like the best hope for that talent. It will be up the young guys like Rubio/Valanciunas develop, step up, and lead their teams to the top of European basketball.

    ReplyCancel
  2. Mike
    10 years ago

    Spain will never have another player as good as Navarro. Maybe they will have more Pau Gasols, Marc Gasols, Rubio, Calderon, etc. but never ever will they replace Navarro.

    They won’t ever be the same without him.

    ReplyCancel
  3. Gabe
    10 years ago

    Wow! Spain lost again. Assuming the US beats Argentina we’re going to have one all-European bracket and one non-European bracket which means no matter what it will be a European team vs a non-European team for the gold. So in the quarter finals we have rematches of the gold medal games in the too best zones (Argentina vs Brazil/also a rematch of the 16 finals of the last WC and Spain vs France). We also have a rematch of the quarter-finals of the last Olympics (poor Australia always seems to draw the US in the first playoff game) and a rematch of the bronze medal game of 1992. I’m pretty sure Lithuania and Russia have played since then I just remember 1992 being a big deal. Two countries that use to be one.

    Also I mentioned how Africa basketball had improved this Olympics I must also have to say that Asia basketball has digressed. Without Yao China didn’t advance out of pool play for the first time in recent memory. Not only that they lost every game and even to 43rd ranked Great Britain (ranked 17 in Europe) by 32 points. And that was Asia’s best? I mean the silver and bronze medal teams lost by -130 points in the qualifying tournament! Asia is now officially the weakest region!

    ReplyCancel
  4. Gabe
    10 years ago

    Man I think Phileus and Mike might be correct about worrying about Team USA. This is a bad USA team. The defense is just horrendous. I mean a 5 point victory over Lithuania and now an only a 1 point lead over Argentina at the half! I mean the argument about this team being able to beat the Dream Team is a joke. This team would get it’s ass kicked the the Redeem Team. The Redeem Team was not challenged until the gold medal game, winning every game before that by at least 20, including a 37 point victory over the defending world champs Spain.

    This team might be “deeper” but the Redeem Team had Howard and Bosh as centers who they are sorely missing. I think. What else can explain this horrid defense. I mean I’m a Knick fan and even I have not seen this bad defense in a while.

    I am still picking the US to win gold although it will be hard. One thing going for the US is the field is not that strong. Their biggest challenger, Spain has already lost twice and no teams really scares me.

    Well let’s see what happens in the second half but the US is not looking good at all.

    ReplyCancel
    • Gabe
      10 years ago

      Now that’s what I’m talking about. Up by 26 now at the end of the 3rd. With this talent the US should beat everyone by 20+ give or take one or two tight games at the most!

      ReplyCancel
      • Gabe
        10 years ago

        29 points that’s what I’m talking about. No more slow starts. Let’s just destroy the competition.

        ReplyCancel
  5. DallasTexasSaqartvelo
    10 years ago

    Lol, no need for a game recap, those last three Gabe posts say everything that needs to be said about USA/Argentina today… and really Team USA as a whole.

    Lietuva played out of their minds, really they did, and the entire game save for about one minute in the 3rd I felt like the USA had total control….. Not to mention the fact that there is a natural letdown after a win like the one against Nigeria.. I don’t know if you remember the first half against Tunisia, but against an opponent that was clearly outclassed it seemed like the longer they went without being ahead by 30 points, the more frustrated and impatient they got….. I think this is a bi-product of the absurd expectations placed on this team and all USA teams…. A 40+ point win over Tunisia, “they should have won by more”; A solid, grind it out win in which Team USA played a bad game and Lietuva played lights out, “Team USA is vulnurable” (honestly, I have never seen what I thought was a great win treated as much like a loss as the Lithuania game, on ESPN they were acting like it was the end of the world); even today, after a close first half against one of the greatest international teams ever, I found myself thinking “Oh shit, I am taking Russia, Spain, Argentina, and Brazil over these scrubs”……..

    Point being, there is no 30 point shot in basketball, and before the Lietuva game, if Team USA doesn’t get out to a double digits in the first 5 minutes because the other team is hitting, they are actually criticized for it. Hold other teams to this standard and you’ll see that Spain beat England by 1 point (!!!!) and lost twice; Argentina “only” beat the leppor-like Nigerians by 14 and were losing to Tunisia in the 2nd half before winning by only 13 after losing to France; Brazil beat England by only 5 and lost to Russia, and they only beat the Aussies by 4; and Russia fell to the inferior Aussies just today……..

    Argentina, Lithuania, and Spain are lauded as “great” in the past decade and a half for winning a COMBINED (!!!) TWO Olympic/World Cup gold medals, TWO Olympic/World Cup silver, and FIVE Olympic/World CUp bronze………. The United States alone in that time-span? TWO Olympic/World cup bronze, and SIX GOLD MEDALS in those events…….. SIX GOLD MEDALS and TWO BRONZE in the Olympics and world cup…… THAT is greatness.

    Today, that was a typical USA performance, after Lietuva, they are a better team, I predict more of the same for the medal round b/c of a weak field and a 7th gold for the Americans..

    ReplyCancel
  6. Erik
    10 years ago

    Gabe says:
    August 6, 2012 at 11.03pm

    Also I mentioned how Africa basketball had improved this Olympics I must also have to say that Asia basketball has digressed. Without Yao China didn’t advance out of pool play for the first time in recent memory. Not only that they lost every game and even to 43rd ranked Great Britain (ranked 17 in Europe) by 32 points. And that was Asia’s best? I mean the silver and bronze medal teams lost by -130 points in the qualifying tournament! Asia is now officially the weakest region!

    ———————————————————————————-

    You are fucking idiot and an enormously arrogant and rude jerk. You were telling everyone how China would beat European teams and qualify to the knockout round and how they were a “legit top 10 team” and how they were “vastly superior” to all but a few European teams.

    If anyone here dared to question that, you went off on them and called them “liars, nuts, fags, Euro homers, crazy, insane, delusional” and all sorts of names.

    You are a seriously crazy and evil bastard.

    ReplyCancel
    • Gabe
      10 years ago

      Evil? That’s a good one. I’m telling you brothers, you better watch your happy home!

      Anyway China has dropped without Yao. With Yao they were able to advance out of pool play in every tournament they have been in. And advancing out of pool play in the Olympics means one more victory and they are in the semis. So while even with Yao I don’t think China were ever contenders to win gold, they were at least contenders to medal. Now without him they are not a top 10 team. Hopefully they will drop in the rankings after this tournament but not enough.

      ReplyCancel
  7. Ws
    10 years ago

    Canada 2016!

    ReplyCancel
  8. Vic
    10 years ago

    Gabe,

    Surely African basketball progressed, but in this tournament African teams were seen as an excuse to relax for European and American teams.

    The big surprise comes from Nigeria in the Olympic qualifying round where they beat Greece and Lithuania. But then, those teams didn’t have time to prepare for the tournament and also underestimated them.

    In the Olympic tournament however, it was still the African and the Asian teams who have not progressed. Any other top 10 european team would have done better than all the Asian and African teams.

    ReplyCancel
  9. Mario
    10 years ago

    Gabe is racist against whites. He just thinks Nigeria is better than European teams because they are blacks and Europeans have white players mostly on their teams.

    He does not think Nigeria is better than Greece for example, he thinks the blacks on Nigeria are better than the whites on Greece. Because he’s a racist.

    ReplyCancel
    • Gabe
      10 years ago

      Whaaat?! ROTFL Okay you got me. I’m racist against my own race! lol

      ReplyCancel
  10. Mike
    10 years ago

    You are black Gabe.

    ReplyCancel
    • Gabe
      10 years ago

      Oh my goooooooooooooood. You know I never realized before but I am black! All this time I thought I was just very tan!

      ReplyCancel
  11. Euroleague > NBA
    10 years ago

    There is not a chance in hell that Gabe is a white person.

    ReplyCancel
  12. Euroleague > NBA
    10 years ago

    USA only beat Spain by 7 and Lithuania by 5.

    A team of 12 Euroleague all stars would beat Team USA by 30-40 points.

    ReplyCancel
Pingbacks: 2
  1. BallinEurope, the European Basketball news site » Blog Archive » Brazil 88, Spain 82: Allegations of tanking predictably begin
    10 years ago
  2. Brazil 88, Spain 82: Allegations of tanking predictably begin | Sports Book Gambling
    10 years ago

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ballineurope
10 years ago 19 Comments FIBA, More2012 Olympic Games, David Blatt, Eurobasket, Eurobasket 2007, fearless predictions, Felipe Reyes, FIBA, FIBA Americans Championship, FIBA Diamond Ball, FIBA World Championship, FIBA World Cup, Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos Navarro, Marc Gasol, Mediterranean Games, Olympics, Pau Gasol, Ricky Rubio, Rudy Fernandez, Serge Ibaka, Sergio Rodriguez, Team Argentina, Team Brazil, Team Russia, Team Spain, Team USA, Team Yugoslavia
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