Lithuania and Latvia will meet in a Baltic derby in Riga at EuroBasket 2025. Both sides come into this game with major injury concerns. Emmet Ryan breaks down the last 16 match-up, which features two huge stars in Jonas Valanciunas and Kristaps Porzingis.
As long as they are still standing, Lithuania and Latvia will fight hard at EuroBasket 2025. Still standing seems an appropriate description as both teams come into this match-up riddled with injuries.
Key information
Who: Lithuania vs Latvia
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga
When: Saturday 6 September at 18.30 local, 16.30 (Ireland/UK), 11.30 EST
Each team’s results so far
Lithuania secured qualification to the Round of 16 with a gritty 81–78 win over Finland, clinching second place in Group B with a 4–1 record. They averaged 86.2 points scored and 78.6 conceded but suffered a significant blow as star guard Rokas Jokubaitis was ruled out for the rest of the tournament with a serious left knee ligament injury, expected to sideline him for about six months.
Latvia, meanwhile, finished 3rd in Group A (3–2) with outputs of 82.4 points for and 76.8 against. Their campaign has been marred by key losses as well: Rodions Kurucs, Arturs Kurucs, and Andrejs Gražulis were forced out by various injuries. These absences have forced Latvia to rely heavily on their remaining core for depth and direction.
Key player matchups
Without Jokubaitis steering the offense, Lithuania’s veteran Jonas Valanciunas becomes even more vital. His inside scoring and rebounding, along with his experience, will be essential in controlling the paint. The onus also shifts to guards Arnas Velicka and Gediminas Zukauskas to maintain rhythm and structure without their injured playmaker.
Latvia will lean heavily on Kristaps Porzingis, who continues to be their power engine in the frontcourt. The hosts also have their share of injury concerns, with Arturs Zagars status remaining unclear.
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Betting outlook
Bookmakers see Lithuania as narrow favourites, with fractional moneyline odds around 8/11 (favoring Lithuania), while Latvia sit around 13/10. The spread is tight—Lithuania –1 to –3 points—indicating expectations for a close, high-stakes Baltic showdown that could go either way.
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Fearless prediction
Jonas Valanciunas and Kristaps Porzingis will do their jobs admirably. A lot of it comes down to everyone else on the court. Both Rimas Kurtinaitis and Luca Banchi are fine tacticians but this may be decided by health. In those circumstances, Latvia look in better shape.
Pick: Latvia straight up.
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