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Official Fearless Predictions™: Spain vs. Slovenia, Lithuania vs. FYR Macedonia

September 14, 2011

Now things are getting interesting. Eight teams remain in EuroBasket 2011, and tonight two will be eliminated from contention for the European championship. These teams will join with the losing teams of Thursday play in a playoff round to determine the all-important no. 5 and no. 6 finishers; this two sides will join nos. 3 and 4 in a qualification round for the 2012 Olympic Games.

And BallinEurope will perhaps make things a bit more contentious with not just one, but two sets of official Fearless Predictions™ as BiE’s U.K. compadre Sam Chadwick gets in on the fun in forecasting tonight’s games. Neither writer read the other’s opinion before posting.

Also provided strictly for the reader’s edification are some lines from the sportsbook, in this case Sporting Bet. As BiE argues, whether gambler or no, it pays for the fan to know the bookie’s stand; after all, these guys have the most to lose financially if they get it wrong. (Sheesh, talk about your fearless predictions…)

Plus, YouTube clips!

• Spain (7-1 in EuroBasket) vs. Slovenia (5-3)
Os says: Though fans were “treated” to one serious anti-climax of a Spain-France match and Spain avoided another serious test, it’s safe to say that, well, the title’s still theirs only snatchable with the hardest of efforts. Coach Sergio Scariolo has made good on his promise that his team “is still getting better and better” game by game, as evidenced by the Serbia game wherein Spain notched its first true blowout (unless one includes the first 20 minutes of the Lithuania game) of this tournament.

Despite the fact that this team is essentially the same as that which took the 2009 title, the two-year difference is making all the difference; the truth is that Los Rojos can trot out two NBA all-star centers: What are you going to do, short of pray they stop delivering? Which the Gasol Brothers haven’t, incidentally, with 260 points (35.0 per game), 99 rebounds (13.1pg), 11 steals (1.5pg) and 14 blocks (2.0pg) and about a zillion give-and-goes and pick-and-rolls initiated.

Do we even need to go deeper here? Right. Your third option is Juan Carlos Navarro who, despite his traditional hot/cold seesawing and 40.2% shooting, is still good for 14.8 points (including three threes) and 3.6 assists per night, while … ah, forget it. Spain is a monster and gods help you if Team Spain’s achieves Scariolo’s line “Our goal is to play 100% in quarterfinals.” Fearless Prediction™: Spain 80, Slovenia 73.

Sam says: Slovenia have played as well as expected at this Eurobasket and in preparations to host their own Eurobasket in 2013. They play a pretty game, the type that looks nice, making you say “That’s what basketball *should* look!” However, against Spain, if Slovenia play basketball how it should be played, then Spain will simply totally annihilate them! Spain can score from everywhere, against anyone, at any time they want! Spain could potentially rest a few players – the Gasols, for example – and be prepared for the semifinals. Prediction: Spanish win.

Sportsbook says: Slovenia is a +15 underdog and gets 13/2 against the well-favored defending champions at 1/14. The over/under on the game is 146.5 points, therefore implying a predicted final score of Spain 81, Slovenia 65.

• Lithuania (6-2) vs. FYR Macedonia (6-2)
Os says: The Macedonian side may be meeting its worst nightmare in Lithuania, whether or not these absolutely unflappable underdogs can withstand the assault on concentration the home crowds will bring.

Nah, we’re not talking the 13th man here, but the problem is rather one of depth. Despite the presence of the amazing Bo McCalebb – whose performance (20.6 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.3 bpg) and straight-up command of his team, whether it makes the final four or not, must be rewarded with an all-tournament selection – FYR Macedonia isn’t quite a one-man team. It’s a three-man team, actually, with Vlado Ilievski contributing 3.4 assists per … and how about that Pero Antic? Has anyone else noticed the nice dirty work he’s doing in the trenches?

While FYR Macedonia has managed throughout this tournament to find the chinks in the armor of various teams thought to be better; hell, their two losses since the tournament began were in overtime and on a last-second three. But Lithuania, with its scintillating combination of wily veterans and quick youngsters, may simply have too many answers for Bo and the boys.

You love going one-on-one on offense? Lithuania can play that; watch for the Kaukenas/Kalnietis monster and Sarunas Jasikevicius up top and maintain a lookout for Martynas Pocius even if you blow past the old guy. You like to run the break? They can keep up with you. You want to rely on Antic cleaning up the offensive glass? Meet Mr. Javtokas and Mr. Valanciunas, neither too shabby or plodding in getting position. You think your defense is tenacious and clever? With their tournament-high 85.0 points per game and 53.2% shooting marks, they’ll be picking their spots on the floor tonight.

You say you don’t turn the ball over (just 10.5 per game, the tournament’s third-best and best of any team with more than five games played? Well, okay, you’ve got ‘em there. I’ll say this game comes down to turnovers; FYR Macedonia needs to hang close throughout and exploit the three or four opportunities they get. But I’m thinking they won’t. Fearless Prediction™: Lithuania 90, FYR Macedonia 72.

Sam says: Unfortunately I don’t think Bo McCalebb can save the dark horse now. It’s been great watching his play, his 20.6 points per game and his 3.9 assists but other than him this team doesn’t have the talent to stand up against Lithuania and its thousands of screaming/crazy fans. For Lithuania, this game is a little bit of a problem as they want guys to be ready for the semis and instead they will have to put forward their best players in an attempt to slow down this team. This game chould potentially (and will, hopefully) be a thriller. Prediction: Lithuania by a few.

Sportsbook says: Lithuania (2/11) is the 8.5-point favorite against FYR Macedonia (37/10), with an over/under of 150.5 implying the final score prediction of 79-71 or 80-71 to Lithuania.

FIBA TV

Sep 14, 2011ballineurope
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This post was published on September 14, 2011
The life and times of Joakim Noah … in 100 seconds Official Fearless Predictions™: France vs. Greece, Russia vs. Serbia
Comments: 9
  1. G
    14 years ago

    here is the official not-so-fearless prediction of orable crab Lazdeika – same as yours 😉
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyZAVdd_2bI

    ReplyCancel
  2. lorenzen
    14 years ago

    I love slovenia. I really do. But Spain is destroying them. I really hope they finish 5th or 6th.

    ReplyCancel
  3. mix
    14 years ago

    BiE, you are wrong again! (: (:

    Please don’t fearless predict any more, you are just bad at it (: Just kidding, this game was a surprise, but Lithuania had it coming. That 3pt percentage had to drop sooner or later.

    MAKEDONIJA BRAVO!!!! Svaka Vam cast momci, imamo srece da niste igrali protiv nas.

    ReplyCancel
  4. Konj
    14 years ago

    Guys, can you please predict that Russia will beat Serbia tomorrow? Cause I really want Serbia to go through! 😉

    ReplyCancel
  5. Bo
    14 years ago

    ¤ *¨¨*¤.¸¸…¸.¤
    MACEDONIA
    .¸.¤ *¨¨*¤.¸¸.¸.¤*
    ..
    ☻/
    /▌
    /

    ReplyCancel
  6. Peter
    14 years ago

    Hey Sam, are you going to eat your words?
    Your not so fearless prediction came out bogus…. Your first and biggest problem is thinking that Macedonia is a one man team.
    Macedonia has the best team play so far. Ask the Russia Head Coach David Blatt.
    They keep Bo, Antic, Ilievski and Stojanovski will keep them busy. Any way you look at it, Lithuania was a man or two short of winning. This is also considering they were the host with 15,000 fans supporting them and with the Slovenian referee giving them advantage on every other offense or defense.
    Anyway, I cant wait to hear your fearless prediction with Spain… 🙂

    ReplyCancel
  7. Lithuanian fan
    14 years ago

    Peter – are you crazy? That Slovenian referee was the WORST for Lithuania in the whole tourney (we were even joking calling him “our friend”…) First, his stupid calls brought us into chaos in the group match with Spain (remember that technical on Kemzura who is a very reserved coach and never before had arguments with referees). Then he made us problems in the first half of the match with Serbia which we nevertheless won in the end. And yesterday he made a few really absurd calls to which all our experts just said “no comment”. They even showed in the video our president being clearly surprised and unhappy after one call. So, in that match referees didn’t help us, but they kept you in the game. If not them, the difference in the last minute would probably have been not 4 but 8-10 points and all that lucky nonsense wouldn’t have happened. Anyway, see you next year in the olympic qualifying tournament, where hopefully this referee won’t participate…

    ReplyCancel
  8. Peter
    14 years ago

    Yeah… I guess we haven’t watched the same game…. Find the youtube videos from the English commentators, Serbian, and Croatian… they all reported the same thing… “Referees were leaning towards Lithuania, and particularly the Slovenian referee” There were numerous fouls that were not given to Macedonia…
    Who cares we still won :)… Stop complaining and go with it…

    ReplyCancel
  9. Lithuanian
    13 years ago

    I am pretty pissed off about our loss to Macedonia, but if you guys actually win vs Spain, I’ll love you forever! (or until your next game vs LT, haha). All the best in your game against Spain, it doesn’t seem very likely for Macedonia to win, but you guys showed plenty surprises in this tournament already right?

    ReplyCancel
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    14 years ago

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14 years ago 10 Comments FIBA, MoreBo McCalebb, EuroBasket 2011, Jonas Valanciunas, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mantas Kalnietis, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Pero Antic, Rimantas Kaukenas, Robertas Javtokas, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Sergio Scariolo, Team Lithuania, Team Macedonia, Team Slovenia, Team Spain, Tomas Delininkaitis, Vlado Ilievski, YouTube
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