Saturday’s big slate at Eurobasket 2025 comes to a close with Nikola Jokic and Serbia taking on Lauri Markkanen and Finland. Can the Susijengi shock the pre-tournament favourites in Riga?
Serbia have weathered some big injury issues, most notably the loss of Bogdan Bogdanovic. Still, with Nikola Jokic leading the charge, they are big favourites to take down Lauri Markkanen and Finland in Riga.
Key information
Who: Serbia vs Finland
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga
When: Saturday 6 September at 21.45 local, 19.45 (Ireland/UK), 14.45 (EST)
Each team’s results so far
Serbia finished second in Group A with a 4–1 record. Despite their dominance, the Reds have been rocked by injuries — captain Bogdan Bogdanovic has been ruled out of the tournament due to a ruptured hamstring sustained in the Portugal game. Still, they have arguably the greatest player in the world to count on in the form of Nikola Jokic.
Finland, meanwhile, secured qualification from Group B with a 3–2 record. Led by standout forward Lauri Markkanen, they remain hungry to upset a top contender.
Key player matchups
With Bogdanovic sidelined, Nikola Jokic must carry Serbia as the offensive cornerstone and emotional core. His presence inside, scoring versatility, and rebounding will be foundational. Meanwhile, the status of guards like Aleksa Avramovic will play a key role. His availability is uncertain due to a painful heel injury sustained in the final group match against Turkey. Serbia’s coach, Svetislav Pesic, has indicated he won’t rule Avramovic out, “but we’ll see in the next few days.”
Finland will look to Lauri Markkanen to deliver his sharpshooting and stretch-the-floor offense. Alongside him, emerging talents like Miikka Muurinen, who’s been spotlighted by FIBA as one of the tournament’s breakout performers, could provide Serbia with unexpected challenges. That said, Muurinen didn’t even dress for the final group game against Germany.
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Betting outlook
Oddsmakers favour Serbia, though less emphatically than in most other matches. The latest odds have them comfortable favourites at 1/11, while Finland sits at about 9/1. The spread markets suggest a clear win for the favourites with Serbia sitting at -14.5
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Fearless prediction
If you didn’t watch the EuroBasket 2025 games in Tampere, you might think Finland offer value with the points. They don’t. The Susijengi’s interior De is utterly non-existent. That will be easy for Nikola Jokic to exploit, irrespective of whatever heroics Lauri Markkanen delivers.
Pick: Serbia at -14.5
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