EuroBasket 2025 has reached the knockout stages. The last 16 tips off on Saturday as Ergin Ataman’s Türkiye take on Sweden.
It’s the team with the most momentum against the Cinderella story. If 1-4 Sweden pull this upset at EuroBasket 2025, it would go down as an all-time.
Key information
Who: Türkiye vs Sweden
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga
When: Saturday 6 September at 12.00 (local), 10.00 (Ireland/UK), 05.00 (EST)
Each team’s results so far
Türkiye — Finished top of Group A (5–0); averaged 91.8 points for and 71.8 against. Closed group play with a statement win over Serbia. Ergin Ataman’s side has only won a medal once ever at EuroBasket, with silver in 2001.
Sweden — Took 4th in Group B (1–4); averaged 80.6 for and 83.6 against. It’s their first appearance in the knockout stages of any EuroBasket. Their win over Great Britain at EuroBasket 2025 was their first since 2013.
Key player matchups
Alperen Sengun has been one of the stars of EuroBasket 2025 so far, leading Türkiye to a perfect group phase record. His ability to dominate inside while also facilitating offense from the high post makes him a nightmare matchup for Sweden’s frontcourt.
Alongside him, Shane Larkin provides perimeter dynamism, creating off the dribble and punishing defenses that collapse on Sengun. Together, they form one of the most balanced inside-outside duos in the tournament.
Sweden will look to counter with Pelle Larsson and Ludde Hakanson. Larsson has shown he can take over stretches of games with efficient scoring, particularly when attacking closeouts.
Hakanson, meanwhile, is the steady hand at point guard, tasked with controlling the tempo and keeping Sweden’s offense from breaking down under Türkiye’s pressure. If the duo can find rhythm, Sweden has a chance to keep this contest competitive.
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Betting outlook
Bookmakers see Türkiye as overwhelming favourites. The latest prices put them at 1/50 to win, while Sweden are out at 14/1. The ATS markets suggest a spread in the region of Türkiye –11.5 to –12.5, depending on the firm, reflecting expectations of a comfortable win but leaving just enough room for Sweden to cover if they find form.
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Fearless prediction
Sweden is a great story at EuroBasket 2025. The work done there to build up interest in basketball should be commended. The story ends on Saturday. There’s just no realistic scenario where I see them coming out on top. Expect Ergin Ataman’s side to make a statement.
Pick: Türkiye to win and cover the -11.5 spread.
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