If the USA somehow doesn’t win gold at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup, it will be an all-time shocker in sports. The race to be the clear number two nation in women’s basketball is proving increasingly tasty all the same. Emmet Ryan on the battle to stand above the crowd.
The consensus betting for the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup has the USA as 1/4 favourites to win it all. Looking at the absolutely loaded roster and the fact that they haven’t lost a competitive game with a pro roster since 2006, it’s safe to say it would be an extraordinary shock if they don’t hoist the trophy in Berlin on 13 September.
That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for. The battle to be the second best team in the women’s game has grown in ferocity in recent years. The collective competition is helping to push other national sides closer to one day ending the wild run the USA is enjoying.
Even the rankings find it tough
The relatively small sample that international rankings work off being taken as read, it’s interesting to note just how tight the battle for second spot is right now according to FIBA. The USA, unsurprisingly hold a huge lead with their 719.1 points being 122.5 clear of France in second place.
Just 22.2 points separate second placed France and sixth placed Spain, while third place Australia are just 0.2 of a point behind France in third. You have to go all the way down to Serbia in 12th before the gap between first and second is matched or beaten.
While rankings can’t be taken as gospel, they certainly help to paint a picture before Berlin. There is room for an enormous amount of movement towards the top of the rankings as the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup shakes out.
The cases vary
France, who currently hold second place can claim to have come closer than anyone in recent years to knocking off the USA. The 2024 Olympic final went to the wire, with the USA only retaining gold 67-66.
Yet they lost the EuroBasket Women 2025 semi final to Spain, who would go on to lose the final to Belgium. Italy also got the win over the French in the bronze medal game and then over Spain in qualification for this tournament. Belgium have the body of work, with sustained success, including the last two EuroBasket Women titles, but they lost the bronze medal game in Paris to Australia.
Then there’s the sheer consistency of Spain, silver medalists to Belgium at the last two EuroBasket Women events but also holding that win over France. Throw in Germany improving rapidly, although being hampered by injury woes at present, and Europe alone is interesting.
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It’s not just Europe
Australia, China, Japan and Nigeria are all bringing a lot to the table in Berlin. Australia and China have won each of the last two FIBA Women’s Asia Cup tournaments, with Japan taking silver on both occasions. Outside of Europe, there really isn’t a deeper federation right now and all three will expect to compete for medals.
Japan also owns arguably the best result against a side not to qualify for this tournament. Their victory in 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup qualifying over Canada knocked the seventh best team in the world, per the rankings, out of the tournament entirely.
As for Nigeria, they look on paper to be capable of making a lot of noise in Berlin. Despite a poor outing against South Korea in qualifying, they gave big frights to both France and Germany in the same tournament. Having not lost an AfroBasket Women game in 11 years, D’Tigress will arrive at this competition with confidence.
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Plenty of head to heads to sort it
While pairings involving the big guns are natural at major tournaments in the knockout stages, there are some big clashes locked in for the early rounds. Belgium battles Australia in Group C, Spain will face Germany in Group A, China get an early crack at the USA in Group D, while France will face Nigeria in Group B.
While the USA will be expected to post a perfect 6-0 to win it all, the drama in Berlin goes beyond the gold medal. The deeper the top end of the sport gets, the greater it will fester competition in the urge to be the ones to knock the USA off its perch.
That’s the concrete opportunity at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup. If the USA gets shocked, that would be phenomenal but terribly unlikely. How those below them battle and fight, with tooth and claw as we say in Europe, will shape the race to eventually match or surpass them.
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