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Eurobasket 2011: A brief roundup

August 30, 2011

On the eve of Eurobasket 2011 (finally), BallinEurope’s man in the U.K., Sam Chadwick, makes his own version of BiE’s patented Fearless Predictions™ with his own brief take on the tournament contender’s chances. And if you don’t think these prognostications are indeed fearless, just scroll down to the bottom to see who he’s got taking the silver medal – not to mention who he *doesn’t* have emerging from Group B.

Group A

1. Spain should top the Group of Death, with a formidable line-up featuring both Gasols, Serge Ibaka, Rudy Fernandez, Juan Carlos Navarro and Ricky Rubio, I don’t think anyone will challenge them for supremacy, though I’m sure team no. 2 will try its luck.

2. Lithuania – Jonas Valanciunas has been playing phenomenally as of late; look for him to continue his good form throughout this tournament. Lithuania will of course have home court advantage and, based on last year’s Under-18 European Championship final, the atmosphere will be electric.

3. Turkey – It pains me not to put Great Britain in at no. 3 but after a 23-point blowout to Latvia on Sunday, I had to put the Turks in the show position, with Enes Kanter, Hedo Turkuglo, Ömer Asik and Ersan Ilyasova plus a good showing at last year’s FIBA Worlds, this team could make some noise.

4. Great Britain – With no true elite point guard, Britain will struggle against pressure defence: The Latvian full-court press suffocated our offence and forced turnovers – and Latvia ain’t that good. We had too many turnovers and limited offence, and our highest scorers finished with eight points. As well as the poor offence, our defence made numerous mistakes with little help being played at all.

5. Portugal should be able to beat Poland and could also potentially beat Great Britain. Look for it to be a close finish between nos. 4 and 5.

6. Poland – Without Marcin Gortat, Poland is in for some trouble. Look for them to finish bottom of Group A and while posing little/no competition against the likes of Lithuania and Spain.

Group B

1. France – Tony Parker could potentially lead France to its best-ever finish at Eurobasket, with Joakim Noah, Kevin Seraphin, Nicolas Batum, Mickael Pietrus, Boris Diaw, etc. – a lineup that could put France into the final against the Spanish. France went undefeated at the London Prepares Series against Serbia, Australia, China, Croatia and the hosts.

2. Italy – This is a tough group, as Italy are bringing the big guns this summer, with the likes of Danilo Gallinari, Andrea Bargnani and Marco Belinelli. Italy recently won the Acropolis Tournament in Greece against solid competition. With some players bosting little Eurobasket experience they may struggle against Germany and Serbia, but they definitely have the firepower to reach the second round.

3. Germany – They may be having bonding problems, but Dirk will always come through under pressure; with another decent big man on the squad in Chris Kaman, Germany could surprise us all, much like Dallas did in the NBA Championships.

4. Serbia – A disappointing finish at the London Prepares Series gives me worries about Serbia, as they lost to France and nearly fell to Great Britain without Luol Deng. They have a solid lineup, but I’m not sure if they can beat the Italians and the Germans … only time will tell.

5. Latvia – After demolishing Great Britain by 23 points on Sunday, Latvia may be surprised by the competition in Lithuania, and with an opening game against France this team could get completely blown out. The consolation prize is that they should beat Israel comfortably.

6. Israel – Without Omri Casspi, this team has little hope. Every side should rip them to shreds, enough said.

Group C

1. Greece – Despite missing some key players, Greece should still win what is considered one of the weakest groups, although they may struggle in the second round. Montenegro, however, could provide some tough competition.

2. Montenegro – With Nikola Pekovic back in the lineup, Montenegro have a solid squad who will challenge Greece for first place in Group C.

3. Croatia – This is though based on play at the London Prepares Series, Croatia will not contend well in this tournament. They will beat the likes of Bosnia & Herzegovina with ease, but Finland, who were the top qualifier for Eurobasket, could be a surprise and make this group a little bit more competitive.

4. Finland – Fine, they had to qualify to actually get to Lithuania, but Finland are a solid squad; with the likes of Petteri Koponen, Teemu Rannikko and Shawn Huff, they should be able to drain it from long range and again should find it fairly easy to beat Bosnia & Herzegovina.

5. FYR Macedonia – I know little about Macedonia, but I do know that they won’t contend with the Greeks but should be able to handle the Bosnians. If Bo McCalebb is playing, they could potentially beat the Finns.

6. Bosnia & Herzegovina – They are here to be annihilated. That is all.

Group D

1. Russia – This was close. The Russians and the Slovenians are close, but I’m giving the edge to AK-47 and the Russians. With Timofey Mozgov playing well at centre, this team could surprise all the people who think they’ve passed their prime.

2. Slovenia should provide some solid competition for the Russians and could steal first in Group D depending on how well they play, as they should easily beat the remainder of the group with no real threat from any of the below teams.

3. Georgia – Zaza Pachulia puts this team in third place; he alone will beat the Belgium national team and Ukraine should also be swept to the side with ease.

4. Bulgaria – Now it gets a little harder. The bottom three teams in Group D are all relatively bad, and Bulgaria should have the strongest of the three.

5. Belgium – With D.J. Mbenga off the squad anything is possible! I’m joking – they still suck.

6. Ukraine – Much like Bosnia, this squad boasts little talent and should be sent home early.

The finals
Unlike many others, I am predicting a final of France versus Spain, with Spain winning. I don’t see anyone beating this team, as their front court is just too dominant and with both Marc and Pau, they are basically unstoppable. Adding Ibaka just makes Spain too damn scary for any opposing guards to venture into that lane without getting blocked. The back court is also a scoring machine, with Juan Carlos Navarro and Rudy Fernandez. Last but not least, they have Ricky Rubio, who may have struggled for FC Barcelona this year but should be able to provide Spain with solid PG skills and rack up assists. France’s Tony Parker will be key for France in the final and thus the matchup with Rubio is key, but with no Ronny Turiaf, the French frontcourt will struggle to match up with the Spaniards.

Although Lithuania is the home team, I only see them finishing with a bronze medal, with just not good enough a squad to beat the Spanish or French.

Sam Chadwick is a university student, part-time sportswriter and a coach in the Solent Kestrels organization.

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Aug 30, 2011ballineurope
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This post was published on August 30, 2011
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Comments: 17
  1. Dzoni
    14 years ago

    where is your italy now ???? serbia blew them out of the arena …i am realy sory for you ,not beliving in such young ,but expirinced team with such talent ,and giving more chances to advence for team wich has only 3 good players …yeah NBA players wow ,i just saw that NBA players ,they realy showed their skills ,they didnt let thier team to lose 20 ,onbly 12 points good for them ….

    ReplyCancel
  2. Stefan
    14 years ago

    I don’t know why do you always underrate Serbian team. Same happened last year in Turkey.

    You don’t know if Serbia can beat Italy and Germany, well, they won with 12 points difference, with -10 from first quarter. Good luck with future predicitions

    ReplyCancel
  3. Stefan
    14 years ago

    Group B is more like

    France
    Serbia
    Italy
    Germany.

    This is not NBA and Germany isn’t Dallas. We saw that today with Italian NBA stars versus Serbian euro players.

    ReplyCancel
    • Gabe
      14 years ago

      Italy has NBA players not NBA stars. Nowitzki on the other hand is an NBA star.

      ReplyCancel
  4. Roske
    14 years ago

    dude, your knowledge of european basketball is terrible… serbia, lithuania and spain will split the medals.

    ReplyCancel
    • Sam Raphael Chadwick
      14 years ago

      I still feel that Serbia will not be receiving a medal at this tournament, too many other strong teams, France and Spain will get medals with Lithuania possibly taking 3rd.

      ReplyCancel
  5. marko
    14 years ago

    lol typical english know nothing about bball….go play croquet and well stick to bball…

    a) lithuania, spain, turky
    b) serbia, france, italy
    c) greece, montenegro, croatia
    d) russia, slovenia, georgia

    ReplyCancel
  6. marko
    14 years ago

    poland little or no threat against spain?? without gortat, lampe or ignerski they nearly won…you are a joke mister sam chadwick…please do not tal k about bball here…only ridiculous team is great britain, half team born outside england ranked 60th and never won a game at eurobaske in their history…go back to division B and dont waste our time…what a waste of space at olympics

    ReplyCancel
  7. Sam Raphael Chadwick
    14 years ago

    @Marko….. Poland were not a threat against Spain, you cannot honestly say that Poland were at any point going to win that game, unless your Polish.

    The fact that Great Britain are ranked 60th is a mute point as World Ranking having little/no meaning at all.

    Great Britain are deserving of their Olympic spot and the games will hopefully spark some interest in GB Basketball.

    I still stand by my predictions France Vs Spain in the final.

    ReplyCancel
  8. Dzoni
    14 years ago

    why is GB deserved spot for the olympics ??? maybe cause they lost all games in their basketball history ?????? and they are denieing some great team to play in olympics ,just cause they are powerfull country ..i am sick of this in sports …they have good,team ,avrege team ,with two good players deng and freeland ,but that doesnt bring them a spot for olypmics …they must win some games ,and france will not play in the final ,they will reach quartfinals ,maybe semifinals …but no finals…

    ReplyCancel
  9. zenas(lithuanian)
    14 years ago

    Hello, I think Sam predictions is good, but in final game i see Lithuania and it has sixt player- the fans around. You probabjy seen a little bit in Poland 09 , and you must see some games and fans in action, welcome to Lithuania. Thanks to FIBA Europe ranking us high too, especially the input lithuanian players put for many years for soviet team wins.

    ReplyCancel
  10. neurosenthal
    14 years ago

    and to all you basketball gurus here giving sam a hard time: what sport were you talking about when ranking italy in front of germany. dodgeball? nowitzki and kaman were having the italian frontcourt for breakfast. i mean seriously, what are you thinking. i mean bargnani and gallinaro are talented scorers (which they didn’t show) but they would have a hard time grabbing a rebound against mini-me or defending my grandma. ’nuff said.

    ReplyCancel
  11. Janus
    14 years ago

    I would not say that the main comentator knows nothing about basketball, in fact he knows a lot, but I think there is one problem with his first predictions. He takes pre-tournament friendly games too seriously. Especially with Ballkan teams they show absolutely nothing about the team – they are often a training session. Many times coaches would loose such a friendly on purpose in order to try a few plays that were not set before, test some skills of players taht are not their forte or maybe even to hide the real weapons of the team.
    Also, preliminaries always find a few best teams playing badly, especially since this competition is far too long to be a really interesting tournament in the beginning. Best teams plan to be at theri best game in two weeks time. I am sure teams like Spain, Serbia and Greece will give a few lackluster performances in the first stage only to pick their game up when it counts. As a Slovenian I hope Slovenia also has this approach this year, as they were known to play a perfect first part of the turnament only to burn out in the final stage. Perhaps they can pick it up this year.

    ReplyCancel
  12. Dzoni
    14 years ago

    neurosenthal yeah germany is better then italy ..they are solid team with one fantastic player ,but they will not reach too far ,maybe quartefinals ,and that would be a huge succes including the fact of their opponents for quartfinals spain,serbia,france,turkey,lithuania ,germany is better maybe only than turkey ,but other teams are better ,so dont dream too soon 😉

    ReplyCancel
  13. Sam Raphael Chadwick
    13 years ago

    @neurosenthal thank you for helping me out 🙂

    And to all you others that doubted my prediction… go take a look at who is in the final!

    ReplyCancel
  14. 30HomeGames
    13 years ago

    If you were to use the lazy approach that I will admit i’m guilty of – “Which collection of NBA players” do you thinking can beat “another collection of NBA players”. Spain and France would be your likely pick.

    Considering the different style of play in Europe its surprising that equation even worked. Spain however is more a ‘team’ in the true sense of the word, cohesive through many years playing together and with players occupying defined roles – bangers, shooters, distributors etc… France have am attractive collection of individual players but I don’t think they have the ball movement and perimeter game to ultimately topple Spain.

    With that said, they were still my pick. Would like to see Batum and Noah take France to the top.

    ReplyCancel
  15. Purple_Shag
    13 years ago

    You chaps might be interested in this take on Spain’s chances against the US in next years olympics, after of course, they lift the trophy again today. Enjoy the article & tonights spectacle.

    http://therestijustsquandered.com/2011/09/18/a-dream-teams-worst-nightmare/

    ReplyCancel
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  1. BallinEurope, the European Basketball news site » Blog Archive » EuroBasket 2011: Notes, quotes, clips and Fearless Predictions™ for France vs. Spain
    13 years ago

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14 years ago 18 Comments EuroLeague, FIBA, More2010 FIBA World Championship, Acropolis Basketball Tournament, Andrea Bargnani, Andrei Kirilenko, Bo McCalebb, Boris Diaw, Chris Kaman, D.J. Mbenga, Danilo Gallinari, Dirk Nowitzki, Enes Kanter, Ersan Ilyasova, EuroBasket 2011, Hedo Turkuglo, Joakim Noah, Jonas Valanciunas, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kevin Seraphin, London Invitational Tournament, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Marco Belinelli, Mickael Pietrus, Nicolas Batum, Nikola Pekovic, Omer Asik, Omri Casspi, Pau Gasol, Petteri Koponen, Ricky Rubio, Ronny Turiaf, Rudy Fernandez, Serge Ibaka, Shawn Huff, Solent Kestrels, Team Belgium, Team Bosnia & Herzegovina, Team Bulgaria, Team Croatia, Team Finland, Team France, Team Georgia, Team Germany, Team Great Britain, Team Greece, Team Israel, Team Italy, Team Latvia, Team Lithuania, Team Macedonia, Team Montenegro, Team Poland, Team Portugal, Team Russia, Team Serbia, Team Slovenia, Team Spain, Team Turkey, Team Ukraine, Teemu Rannikko, Timofey Mozgov, Tony Parker, Zaza Pachulia
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