It’s a real David vs Goliath clash in Riga on Saturday. Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder lead world champions Germany against Portugal in the last 16 of EuroBasket 2025.
Germany made light work of Group B in Tampere. Now, with EuroBasket 2025 in its knockout phase, Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder will be expected to dominate against Portugal.
Key information
Who: Germany vs Portgual
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga
When: Saturday 6 September at 15.15 local, 13.15 (Ireland/UK), 08.15 (EST)
Each team’s results so far
Germany swept Group B with a flawless 5–0 record, posting the tournament’s highest scoring average at 105.8 points for versus 73.0 against. Their dominance was underscored by a 91–61 wipeout of Finland and an 120–57 dismantling of Great Britain.
Portugal, meanwhile, clinched 4th place in Group A (2–3), scoring just 63.0 points per game while allowing 73.6. Their mission in the Round of 16 represents a breakthrough moment: reaching this stage is a rare achievement for them.
Key player matchups
Germany’s offense has revolved around Dennis Schroder, who has led the team with his scoring punch and playmaking. His ability to break defenders and create opportunities for teammates makes him the lynchpin of Germany’s attack. Flanking him is Orlando Magic superstar Franz Wagner, whose scoring and spacing help keep defense honest and open up lanes for Schroder and Germany’s ludicrously deep group of role players.
Portugal, with a less heralded roster, will look to Neemias Queta to provide interior toughness and second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, their veteran perimeter threats will need to stay hot from long range to counter Germany’s pace. If Portugal can find early rhythm behind the arc and make it uncomfortable inside, they might remain in striking distance longer than expected.
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Betting outlook
Basketball bookmakers all list Germany as overwhelming favorites, priced at a near-certain 1/100 on the moneyline, while Portugal are long underdogs at 11/1. Spread markets suggest a margin in the range of Germany -28 to -30 points, reflecting a strong expectation of a blowout.
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Fearless prediction
Granted, every prediction on this site is called a fearless one. That tradition was started by Os Davis and I love our editor emeritus. This one isn’t exactly going to blow you away. You could take away Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner and Germany would still be overwhelming favourites. This is going to be a blowout.
Pick: Germany to win and to cover -30
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