Italy came oh so close to the greatest upset in the history of basketball at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup. The 30.5 favourites USA looked utterly rudderless against an Italy team that came with organisation as well as belief. The way the USA is playing right now, is putting an unnecessary ceiling on their potential, writes Emmet Ryan.
There’s no point in everyone being capable of being a first option if nobody is the first option. The USA’s excess generosity on the floor is limiting its ceiling. Right now, at the 2026 FIBA World Cup, they are playing like all five players on the court are equal options
It doesn’t matter if it’s Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, or Aliyah Boston, someone needs to be the clear boss to maximise everyone else on the floor.
The show part was obvious
After a somewhat over-hyped debut at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup on Friday at the Max Schmeling Halle, Caitlin Clark had her first chance to play on the main stage on Sunday.
The USA, and Clark obviously, will be playing all of their games at the Uber Arena from here on out. The home of Alba Berlin and the scene for some of the most dramatic nights in the history of basketball on this continent.
A fellow journalist turned to me and wondered what was going through the heads of the Americans during the clapping portion of Canto deglo Italiani. Not fear, of course, but possibly some perplexity. Still, those of us in the media seats were equally perplexed by how difficult the tournament favourites made life for themselves.
Backsides on seats
While this tournament as a whole has sold very well, there’s no doubting who the biggest draw is. Caitlin Clark sells tickets and FIBA has leaned into her presence hard. While Breanna Stewart was the clear star of the opening win over China, Clark’s the reason this barn was sold out for an expected easy win for the USA.
Her initial introduction was missed in part by the crowd of 9,232, mainly because the announcer didn’t call her by name and all eyes were on Italy at the foul line. Clark gunned for a three on her first look but the shot was poor.
She was far from alone in struggles during the first quarter. An Italian journalist said that a win for his nation would be the biggest in their history, men’s or women’s, such was their underdog status. Yet the fight in the Italians as well as the orderly manner of their defensive play proved frustrating for the USA in the half court.
Paige benefits off the ball
When Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers are both on the floor, the latter tends to defer to Clark as the primary ball handler. Between that and largely softer defensive assignments, there were more opportunities for her to pounce.
A block, steal, and fast break by Bueckers calmed nerves for the USA late in the first quarter. Yet through the second, despite always being ahead, something familiar was developing. Team USA women share a challenging trait with their men.
The slower half-court heavy offensive sets that are the meat and potatoes of the game outside the US bother them. Being able to maintain rhythm while things get more crowded is crucial to success in this regard. As the tournament wears on, this promises to be a bigger issue for them unless it’s addressed.
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This is just a mess
Caitlin Clark getting put on her backside violently by an Olbis Andre block to end the first half summed up the issues for the USA. This was painfully frustrating to watch, especially as the fix addresses the core problem.
The USA essentially had no time together prior to getting to Berlin. The 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup coming during the season isn’t ideal. This is why it would have made a heap of sense for Kara Lawson, who knows more about basketball than I could ever dream to, to have identified a clear lead option offensively.
It looked to be Breanna Stewart in the opener but the game with Italy showed that is far from certain. This is the key issue the US needs to identify. Being able to outperform everyone at options 2 through 12 on your roster is only useful if there’s a clear order. That will upset some players but it will drive others and lead to a far more impressive offensive output.
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The good news
The win tonight, unimpressive as it was, secures the USA’s spot in the quarter finals. Considering anything less than a perfect record at this tournament would be considered a failure, that’s nothing to celebrate.
It does however buy the USA one no-risk game against Czechia and the 48 hours afterwards to make adjustments. Those changes are absolutely vital if they are to retain the title. Wild as it may sound, for all their talent, the Americans are working themselves into real danger at the 2026 FIBA World Cup.
They seem to have not got the memo that this isn’t just a barnstorming tour for its superstars. Caitlin Clark, Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier, and the other nine members of this roster need to walk up. Most importantly, Kara Lawson needs to establish her floor general yesterday.
Cards on the table
Italy hadn’t played in a FIBA Women’s World Cup since 1994. Their star player, Cecelia Zandalasini, is having a career year with the Golden State Valkyries but let’s be serious. That is the peak individual Italy have and the USA can convincingly argue they have 12 players better than them in Berlin.
Yet in the middle of the third quarter, Italy kept on punching the USA in the nose. They took the lead, lost it, and took it again. While they took bronze at EuroBasket Women last year, Italy is not considered part of Europe’s elite, never mind the world’s.
A nation that has only recently returned to relevancy in the women’s game looked comfortable in a straight fight with the US. They looked that way because the fight was on their terms. Through to the closing stages, they still looked capable of winning. That’s unacceptable from a US perspective considering the talent advantage.
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